Premier League betting: Armel Bella-Kotchap to take centre stage for Southampton at Aston Villa - Jones Knows
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Thursday 15 September 2022 17:33, UK
Jones Knows is backing Southampton's new star Armel Bella-Kotchap to play a leading role in a Saints win at Aston Villa on Friday Night Football.
How did we get on last time out?
Not good, I'm afraid.
A -4.5 loss on the weekend with all four plays heading into the Sky Bet satchels.
The main play of Palhinha, Andreas Pereira and Harrison Reed to have at least four shots between them for Fulham vs Tottenham (11/4) was one that was getting me quite giddy hence the double stakes, but Fulham never really threatened to test Spurs until Pereira departed late on. That obviously meant Reed to have two shots at 11/2 also never landed a blow either.
Central midfielders that play against Spurs are ones to keep in your thoughts though when it comes to the shots angles though.
The 40/1 longshot accumulator actually ran well for a long period. Everton delivered in the early kick-off on the double chance vs Liverpool, which was actually the biggest price of the four selections. Nottingham Forest to beat Bournemouth and West Ham to avoid defeat at Chelsea were both going swimmingly well at 4.15pm, but Forest then threw away a two-goal lead in wretched fashion and the Hammers did the classic David Moyes thing of trying to sit on a lead and lost 2-1.
The main real positive to take from that weekend involved Solly March. His effort that he played a part in bundling over the line in Brighton's 5-2 rout of Leicester thankfully went down as an own-goal. Having stepped away from following him to score at 10/1 for the first time this season, you can imagine my relief. The poor lad is never going to score, is he?
P+L = -3
1pt on Southampton to win to nil vs Aston Villa & Armel Bella-Kotchap to have a shot (12/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
Armel Bella-Kotchap is a player I'm going to make money off this season, I can feel it.
He and Mohammed Salisu are a defensive duo to take very seriously. It's an exciting prospect for Southampton as Ralph Hasenhuttl, a very attack-minded manager, has never truly had a quality base to work from. In four games since playing as a centre-back pair, Saints have conceded an expected goals figure of just 3.59 and that includes playing Chelsea and Manchester United. Only Arsenal and Tottenham have recorded a better defensive figure in that period. The markets are pricing up Southampton on their long-term defensive data under Hasenhuttl which ranks them as one of the worst defences in the Premier League.
However, a run of no clean sheets in their last 12 Premier League games is surely going to end shortly on the basis of their newfound defensive solidity, potentially at Villa Park against a very tame Aston Villa attack. Only Bournemouth have had fewer shots and created a lower expected goals figure per game than Steven Gerrard's team.
This defensive improvement at Saints is changing my usual betting attack when it comes to Southampton games. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals has been a profitable angle over the past year but with this Bella-Kotchap and Salisu axis having a massive effect on their defensive output, it's time to oppose goals.
A Southampton win to nil does it for me at 11/2 with Sky Bet. It's worth throwing into the mix Bella-Kotchap having a shot in the match, too at Evens with Sky Bet. The imposing centre-back has fired seven efforts at goal in his five games and can cause a threat against a Villa side that are looking shaky at defending set-pieces this season.
1pt on Bella-Kotchap to have a shot vs Aston Villa, second half most goals in Tottenham vs Leicester & Everton to beat West Ham (11/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
That Evens available on Bella-Kotchap registering just one shot on goal this weekend is best bet material so it simply has to be included in the longshot.
Since Antonio Conte took charge of Spurs, only Manchester City and Liverpool have scored more goals in second half of matches than Spurs' tally of 40. And during that same period, only Leeds have shipped more second-half goals than Leicester's 31.
Spurs are notorious slow starters, too, with the second half producing more goals than the first in all three of their last three fixtures in all competitions. Meanwhile, Leciester have conceded two or more goals in five of their six second halves this season in the Premier League. I'm anticipating a cagey beginning before Spurs put their foot down after the break when the Leicester defence is likely to wilt.
And, Everton, who are slowly becoming a very solid side with a nice look to their midfield, look a very backable price at home to West Ham.
