Match highlights of every Premier League game to be shown on the Sky Sports website and app just after full-time; watch Southampton vs Leicester, Nottingham Forest vs Everton, Liverpool vs Manchester United and Brentford vs Fulham live on Sky Sports
Monday 6 March 2023 23:44, UK
Jones Knows thinks Brentford will beat Fulham on Monday Night Football as he remains worried about the underlying numbers of Marco Silva's side.
Despite Fulham's magnificent set of results, I'm still not convinced they defend the heart of the pitch with much conviction or are creating enough high-quality chances to be defined as a top-eight team.
Being good at scoring from range and being ruthlessly clinical from low-quality chances is a part of football but it's an unsuitable long-term tactic of trying to win matches. To have won two and drawn the other in their last three games despite only creating 0.34 (vs Brighton), 0.44 (vs Wolves) and 0.22 (vs Leeds) worth of expected goals is quite extraordinary. Football is a fine-margin sport where the underlying numbers do eventually bore out into results over a long period so a regression to more inconsistent set of results is coming for Fulham if they keep posting these types of numbers. Brentford look a fair bet to me at 19/20 with Sky Bet.
This is a team unbeaten in eight home Premier League games, winning three of their last four, conceding just three goals in their last seven games.
And I'm still convinced Fulham are vulnerable through the centre of their defence when a top-class centre-forward rocks up. Central strikers like Harry Kane, Rodrigo, Dominic Solanke, Gianluca Scamacca, Michail Antonio, Alexander Isak, Callum Wilson and Toney himself all have scored this season against Marco Silva's men.
So taking Ivan Toney, who has seven in his last nine, to score in a Brentford win rates as one of the best wagers of the weekend at 2/1 with Sky Bet.
