Scottish Premiership title race: Rangers are the form horse, Celtic are favourites but Hearts lead the way

Three clubs. One trophy. And a title race that’s refusing to follow the old script.

Momentum is swinging, pressure is mounting and every fixture now carries the weight of a season.

Leaders Hearts beat St Mirren on Wednesday night despite being down to 10 players again, while Martin O'Neill's Celtic claimed an unconvincing but vital win at Falkirk.

Hearts' fearless challenge from outside the Old Firm has created a run-in rich with jeopardy and one showered with excitement that you can't take your eyes off. Are they on their way to ending Celtic and Rangers' 40-year top-flight dominance?

As the campaign heads towards the conclusion of the second round of fixtures, it's Hearts who sit at the summit - leading the way on 50 points.

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Celtic, on 44 points, are driven by expectation as much as ambition. After weeks of turbulence, transition and defeats under Wilfried Nancy, they have immediately catapulted themselves back into the title picture on Martin O'Neill's return.

Rangers, behind their Old Firm rivals on goal difference, know better than most how quickly momentum can swing in this league. It's them who are the form horse - having picked up the most points in the league since Danny Röhl's appointment...

Hearts still lead the way: Catch us if you can

Next five league fixtures:

Celtic (h) - Jan 25 - live on Sky Sports
Dundee United (a) - Jan 31 - live on Sky Sports
St Mirren (a) - Feb 3 - live on Sky Sports
Hibernian (h) - Feb 10
Rangers (a) - Feb 15

When Tony Bloom became involved with Hearts, his prediction was to win the title within 10 years. He's on the verge of delivering that unlikely promise well ahead of schedule. It's taken just one full transfer window for his Jamestown Analytics model to work its magic.

Alexandros Kyziridis and Cláudio Braga weren't brought in to make statements or create noise. They were brought in to solve problems. And in doing so, Hearts may have exposed how far behind the curve much of Scottish football still is when it comes to recruitment. Hearts have targeted skillsets, not CVs. They've looked at what their system needs and gone shopping in markets others ignore.

Between them Braga (13) and Kyziridis (9) have been responsible for 22 goal involvements this season, while team-mate Lawrence Shankland - who stayed at the club after the expiry of his deal in the summer - has scored 11 goals and provided three assists.

Hearts, who are the league's top goalscorers with 42 goals bagged, will need Braga, Kyziridis, Shankland and co to continue to run hot this year.

Derek McInnes' side have responded to their Edinburgh derby defeat at Hibernian with three straight victories to keep Celtic and Rangers at arm's length.

Holding off the Old Firm over an entire season, though, is a unique challenge. In a race where pressure grows by the week, Hearts' ability to keep finding the net may be the difference between daring to dream - and delivering something truly historic.

Rangers on a Röhl

Next five league fixtures:
Dundee (h) - Jan 25
Hibernian (a) - Feb 1
Kilmarnock (h) - Feb 4
Motherwell (a) - Feb 11 - live on Sky Sports
Hearts (h) - Feb 14 - live on Sky Sports

"Rangers are out of it, they are finished and can forget about it, 12 points is too much to claw back."

For Kris Boyd, his former team's title hopes ended after their 2-1 defeat to Hearts on December 21. However, just a few weeks later, having taken 15 points from 15, including a win at Celtic Park, the picture is looking far rosier.

Rangers' revival under Röhl isn't loud. It isn't flashy. But it is increasingly effective.

After a turbulent spell under Russell Martin, where possession football often came at the expense of defensive security and goals, Rangers are now winning games by becoming harder to beat.

The chaos has been dialled down. The risks have been managed. And crucially, the goals against column has tightened dramatically. Just 17 goals shipped in 22 games tells its own story.

Now, Rangers concede far less, are more clinical from set-pieces and Röhl is not afraid of changing shape if Plan A isn't working. The best example of that was at half-time against Celtic, with his side 1-0 down, Röhl tweaked the shape and 26 minutes later his side were 3-1 up at the home of their fiercest rivals.

Rangers may not yet be the finished article, but they are building a platform that travels well in a title race: defensive resilience, game management and the ability to punish opponents in decisive moments.

Struggling Celtic are still title favourites - why?

Next five league fixtures:
Hearts (a) - Jan 25 - live on Sky Sports
Falkirk (h) - Feb 1
Aberdeen (a) - Feb 4 - live on Sky Sports
Livingston (h) - Feb 11
Kilmarnock (a) - Feb 15, live on Sky Sports

Logic suggests the Scottish Premiership title race has tilted away from Celtic. The form line certainly does. Four defeats in six league matches under Nancy didn't help the cause.

However, his sacking and the return of O'Neill for a second interim spell this season means their dreams are not over.

The 73-year-old needs to make up a three-point gap to Rangers, and six points on leaders Hearts. For all the changes in the dugout and expected changes on the pitch during the January transfer window, when you check the bookmakers' prices on the title race, one thing hasn't shifted: Celtic remain favourites with Sky Bet.

Whether that will prove right or wrong come the end of the season, only time will tell. But bookmakers don't price emotion. They price probability. And in this title race, probability still leans heavily towards Celtic - even amid the turbulence.

The bookmakers are banking on institutional memory in that this is a club that knows how to win a title when the pressure tightens. And, crucially, the underlying data also offers comfort.

Under Nancy, Celtic were still controlling matches. Chance creation didn't collapse - conversion did, while defensive lapses were costly.

Celtic don't look like champions right now. That much is clear. However, they did under O'Neill when he first returned to the club.

Five league wins from five, with one goal conceded, should have kick-started the club's title defence.

He's on his way to repeating results like he managed earlier in the season, meaning anything is possible.