Chelsea's finishing under Liam Rosenior, Newcastle's defence under Eddie Howe and Florian Wirtz's stats in The Debrief
In The Debrief this week, we take a look at the data behind Liam Rosenior's Chelsea and their poor finishing. Plus: The defensive woes of Eddie Howe's out-of-form Newcastle and a dive into the numbers behind Florian Wirtz's first season with Liverpool...
Monday 20 April 2026 07:39, UK
Welcome to The Debrief, a Sky Sports column in which Adam Bate uses a blend of data and opinion to reflect on some of the key stories from the latest Premier League matches. This week:
- Chelsea's goal drought continues
- Wirtz flatters to deceive at Liverpool
- No defence for Howe's Newcastle
Are Chelsea unlucky or is it an issue?
Earlier this month, Liam Rosenior opted to point out that for all the noise about his time at Chelsea, his team ranked fourth in the Premier League table since he took over. Let's hope he has not checked lately because they are down to ninth during his reign now.
The defeat by Manchester United made it four defeats in a row, three coming at home. The previous run of three consecutive defeats at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League included a loss to Oldham in which Tony Cascarino was up front for Chelsea.
In other words, these are strange times for the club and, for all Rosenior's bullishness, it is threatening to unravel. Supporters are becoming used to his robust defences of his record and he was typically emphatic that Chelsea's loss to United was undeserved.
"They have had one shot on our goal when we are down to 10 men off an injury and score and then we have wave after wave of attack, crosses in the box, moments that we do not take advantage of. I think we have hit the woodwork four or five times," said Rosenior.
"I will never lie, I cannot speak on things that I do not see. I saw a team that were dominant. We were dominant from the first moment of the game to the last but we have to take care of our moments better. That is what is costing us points at this moment in time."
Up to a point, Rosenior is right, even if Opta claim that only three shots struck the frame of the goal. Chelsea's finishing has been spectacularly bad. Since mid-March, they are the only team in the Premier League not to score - despite having had the most shots.
That is an extraordinary statistic. However, it is worth noting that United actually had the clearest opening of the game. Chelsea's opportunities, while numerous, were of lower quality and that has been a feature of their play under Rosenior during this poor run.
In fact, only Wolves have had a lower expected-goals total per shot than Chelsea over the past 10 games. Penetrating the penalty box has been a problem. Their chances are not good chances. And that means blanking despite 'dominating' has been a recurring theme.
Perhaps even more worrying than the possibility that this is a product of their style of play is the potential for it to be a consequence of their personnel. Is it really a coincidence that United's Matheus Cunha found the crisp finish to decide this game?
The Brazilian has overperformed his expected goals significantly during his time in the Premier League. Every single one of Chelsea's attacking players on the pitch on Saturday have underperformed expected goals throughout their careers in the competition.
Football is a game of fine margins. And Chelsea will score again soon. But on a Premier League weekend when proven scorers Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah proved decisive for their sides, maybe Chelsea's bad luck in front of goal has been baked into their model.
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Wirtz still not seizing the moment
Jamie Carragher focused on Florian Wirtz before the Merseyside derby. Of a haul of four goals and three assists, Carragher told Sky Sports: "I would describe that as neat and tidy, not really hurting the opposition in terms of getting assists and scoring goals."
He added: "When you look at the size of this pitch, how nice this pitch is, this is a game he should be winning, this is a game he should be controlling and running." Although Liverpool did win the game late on through Virgil van Dijk, it was another that passed Wirtz by.
The statistics afterwards highlighted why the £116m signing from Bayer Leverkusen last summer is so tricky to assess. Those stats say that nobody created more. Wirtz now ranks second in the Premier League behind Bruno Fernandes for open-play chances created.
But what were the four chances created? There was a cute reverse pass to Cody Gakpo that came to nothing and a fizzed ball in to Alexander Isak where the striker got his shot off but it was easily saved. The other two were simple passes prior to speculative shots.
The eye test told a different tale. Wirtz struggled to retain possession in a game that was typically frenetic. He was outmuscled and unable to impose himself as Carragher and the Liverpool fans would have hoped. There was one successful dribble and no shots.
Wirtz can be a joy to watch in full flow, gliding across the turf, and there is no questioning his work rate. He ranks fourth in the Premier League for runs this season and the three men above him have all played more minutes. Always seeking space. Not always found.
But he has not shown the chutzpah expected. Where is the swagger, the appetite to take risks to make things happen that has marked out Rayan Cherki as an emerging superstar at Manchester City? Wirtz was a leader at Leverkusen. He is not yet that at Liverpool.
His obvious talent - not to mention his long-term contract - buys him time. But there are limits to the patience. "He is in a new league, new manager, new system," said Carragher. "But we are 10 months in now. We need to see a lot more." We did not see that at Everton.
Newcastle so shaky now under Howe
On the face of it, Newcastle are still playing with the old intensity. They rank second in the Premier League this season for sprints, having been in the top five for that metric in each of Eddie Howe's five seasons at the helm. But that approach is leaving gaps now.
Part of Newcastle's success has become part of their problem. If they are a little slow to that press and if the defence do not push up then those spaces open up. There were lots of them in their 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth, a game that they were never really in control of.
Howe insisted that the margins were fine but Andoni Iraola's side had the better chances and an expected-goals total of 2.99 reflected that. It is the highest Newcastle have conceded this season - just edging out last week's tally against Crystal Palace. A trend.
Since the end of January, their expected goals against is worse than every team in the Premier League bar bottom-club Wolves. They are sandwiched between the three clubs in the relegation zone, confirming their status as one of the leakiest defences in the league.
The home form is alarming. Newcastle have lost five of their last six Premier League games at St James' Park - as many as they lost in total last season and as many as the two seasons prior to that combined. It is a fortress breached. A daunting trip no more.
A vulnerable Newcastle makes for a vulnerable Howe. Even the much-maligned Steve Bruce never finished as low as Newcastle currently lie in the Premier League table. As a result, Howe finds his selection decisions under scrutiny with his role in recruitment inflaming that.
Yoane Wissa has had little impact, Anthony Elanga was poor again and Nick Woltemade has become a problem to solve. Howe knows that he must find the answers at the top end of the pitch. But it is Newcastle's dismal defensive record that is damning right now.
