David McGoldrick has endured a miserable time of it in front of goal for Sheffield United but the forward's overall game is strong and his luck could yet turn, writes Adam Bate
Friday 27 March 2020 12:43, UK
If this is to be the end of the Premier League season, then one man boasts an unwelcome record in football's era of statistical analysis. Even as Sheffield United have flourished on their return to the top flight, the stats suggest that no player has ever struggled so badly in front of goal as their forward David McGoldrick has this season.
According to Opta's expected-goals model, McGoldrick's 36 efforts on goal should have yielded an average of 6.2 goals based on the type of shot and its location.
Instead, the 32-year-old fan favourite who scored 15 times in helping the club to promotion from the Championship is still waiting for his first ever Premier League goal.
He has gone close. There was the open goal he missed away at Brighton in December. Before that, there was the VAR check that denied him against Tottenham in November.
"A year ago that would have been a goal, at Tottenham Stadium," he told Sky Sports. "It would have been some story but it got taken away. I'm sure I'll get my first goal soon."
And yet, the wait continues and McGoldrick is out on his own as the worst - or perhaps unluckiest - player in front of goal in the whole Premier League. Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg is the next closest man on the list to have spurned every single chance to score and his expected-goals tally is still only 2.7 - less than half as good as the chances missed by McGoldrick.
Indeed, if the Republic of Ireland international is denied the chance to get off the mark then this would rank as the most unfortunate blank since Opta began recording such stats.
Everton's Oumar Niasse endured a miserable time of it last term. Saido Berahino misfired at Stoke, while Jesus Navas was a byword for wastefulness during his time at Manchester City. But none of them had an expected-goals total in excess of four in a single scoreless season.
For now, McGoldrick's record stands apart.
But McGoldrick - affectionately known as Didzy by the club's supporters - continues to retain the faith of the crowd, his team-mates and his manager. Chris Wilder has praised his work ethic and described McGoldrick as the man who makes Sheffield United tick.
Prior to the recent good run since February, the Blades had won only one of the eight Premier League games in which he had not started compared to their record of seven wins from the 16 games that he had. That was testament to his defensive work and his creativity.
The former was best illustrated by the crowd-pleasing tackle put in on John McGinn during the 2-0 win over Aston Villa in December. It typified his brand of defending from the front.
Now for another of the positive statistics.
No regular forward in the Premier League has made more tackles per 90 minutes than McGoldrick so far this season. There have been 36 of those. He sets the tone.
As for his attacking play, McGoldrick still managed to register an assist for Sheffield United's equaliser in that game at Tottenham - playing a one-two with John Fleck before feeding the ball to George Baldock. His assist against Villa was even better - a nonchalant hook over his own shoulder into the path of Fleck to secure the points for his team.
It is more than the assists though. It is the awareness. The dummy here or the run that creates space there, such as the intelligent movement that opened up the path for Lys Mousset to put Wilder's men two up at home to Manchester United back in November.
That is why the supporters are still on his side.
"I've been a striker for all my career and I've gone through spells not scoring and you get moans, you get boos, you get called all sorts," admitted McGoldrick.
"But I'm getting chances and I'm not taking them and I'm getting my name sung straight after. It lifts you straight away, it makes me work harder, on the ball, off the ball, for the team, for the fans, for the manager and the staff. I've never seen fans stick by a player that much like they are with me, the respect I've got for them is mutual."
Perhaps they understand not just that he brings so much more to the team but that these things can turn. In the long term, expected goals remains a very effective predictor of goals.
Consider the identity of the player whose actual goals tally lagged furthest behind his expected-goals total last season - Southampton's Danny Ings.
He has outperformed his expected goals this time around scoring 15 times. The clues were there that his luck would turn. Perhaps the same could yet be true for McGoldrick as well.
"I've not played in the Premier League before," says the man himself. "If I wasn't getting any shots and I wasn't scoring, then yeah I would be worried. But I'm getting the chances and it's like they say with London buses, once one comes, they all come at once."
Until then, Sheffield United supporters will continue to back their man.
