Watch Burnley vs Leeds and Wolves vs Manchester United on Sunday, live on Sky Sports
Sunday 29 August 2021 17:17, UK
Our betting guru Jones Knows called Chelsea's 1-1 draw at Liverpool so what's he tipping on Super Sunday?
This should be an entertaining watch.
Burnley are struggling for form, it must be said. Sean Dyche's men have lost nine of their last 11 Premier League games, including the last five. However, they aren't performing like a team posting relegation numbers. In those 11 games, they have racked up the eighth-highest expected goals figure of teams in the Premier League, showcasing the threat they still pose when entering opposition final thirds. It's a higher figure than Leeds have posted over the same period. That does make the 2/1 on a home win with Sky Bet quite appealing.
But for a confident betting angle, I'd rather take a look at the goals line, predominately the chances of goals before half-time.
Burnley have a tendency of making fast starts. They dominated Brighton in the first half of their 2-1 defeat on the opening weekend, creating 1.2 of their overall 1.25 expected goal figure before the break and gave Liverpool a few problems in the early stages last weekend. A quick run of the numbers show they scored 60 per cent of their goals in the first half last season - the highest percentage of any side. With Leeds happy to play at a high tempo and swing for the ropes at every opportunity, the chances of this one sparking early seem pretty likely to me. I'm happy to play the first half to produce two or more goals at 13/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2
BETTING ANGLE: Over 1.5 first half goals (13/8 with Sky Bet)
I got my first glimpses of Watford up close when covering their 2-0 defeat at Brighton. It was a very "meh" type of performance. It was all about organisation and doing the basics right, which they didn't. And when Brighton went ahead they were very slow to change style and didn't have much firepower in the latter stages to seriously trouble the hosts.
It seems if you keep Ismaila Sarr quiet, you keep Watford quiet.
Nuno Espirito Santo is a tactically shrewd coach when it comes to a defensive plan and he'll be all over keeping a lid on the talents of Sarr. From there, Spurs' quality in the final third should end what has been a hugely successful week with the Harry Kane news on a high. The stage is set for him to score in a home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
BETTING ANGLE: Harry Kane to score and Tottenham to win (23/20 with Sky Bet)
Manchester United showed last weekend against Southampton why they won't be winning any Premier League titles anytime soon with their current set-up.
Yes, they created plenty of danger and goalscoring opportunities early in the game but the lack of oomph and tactical know-how on show in the final 20 minutes when a winning goal was there for the taking was worrying.
To have just one shot on goal during that period against a relegation-ranked team - a blocked long-range effort from Scott McTominay at that - proves they have plenty to find in order to trouble Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City this season. All three of those teams would have been peppering that goal with three points on offer.
I'm still adamant United will finish fourth or worst this season with the current manager in employment.
Come the end of the season, I'd be very confident that Wolves will finish at least six places higher than Southampton in the Premier League, so United will be facing stiffer opposition than last weekend. If Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's boys play with the same stodginess in the final third, Wolves have a proper chance for the upset.
The Bruno Lage era has just been bubbling under the surface so far. Good performances, a more fluid style of playing but back-to-back defeats is what he has to show for their work. To post 37 shots on goal in games against Tottenham and Leicester is an impressive feat though and although those efforts have equated to a pretty mediocre expected goals figure, the message from the manager of a more attack-minded approach is getting across. Positive signs, indeed.
Remember, United are on the verge of setting a new all-time Football League record with 28 away league games unbeaten.
I think that run will end here. Home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
BETTING ANGLE: Wolves to win (18/5 with Sky Bet)
Man City 5-0 Arsenal - Jones Knows said: 1-0
Aston Villa 1-1 Brentford - Jones Knows said: 0-1
Brighton 0-2 Everton - Jones Knows said: 0-1
Newcastle 2-2 Southampton - Jones Knows said: 2-0
Norwich 1-2 Leicester - Jones Knows said: 1-2
West Ham 2-2 Crystal Palace - Jones Knows said: 2-1
Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea - Jones Knows said: 1-1
