Premier League predictions and best bets: Is Chelsea's season starting to crumble? 7/1 best bet treble
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Thursday 11 December 2025 21:13, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League card and tips up a 7/1 treble.
Chelsea vs Everton, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
December into January always exposes fragility within a camp and Chelsea are showing the same cracks that appeared this time last year, when they stumbled through the Christmas period without a win in four including losing at Ipswich.
Enzo Maresca is a process manager but the caveat with those types is clear - his teams are best when fresh. As Chelsea boss his record of 15 wins from 20 matches when his teams enter a game after five days or more between fixtures, tells that story.
Give him time and the performances pop. Take away the rest? It all becomes hard work.
The Club World Cup, Champions League travel and commitments, an emotional load on a young squad is all leaving a mark. You can see it in their late-game legs in the recent defeats to Atalanta and Leeds.
Everton, on the back of four wins in five, should arrive buoyant and confident of an upset with the 11/4 with Sky Bet on the draw no bet or the 6/5 on the double chance offering some tasty value to bite on.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Everton double chance (6/5 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
Taking the opposition shots lines against Liverpool at Anfield isn't usually a betting theory to explore - but under Fabian Hürzeler, Brighton are not a normal team when visiting the elite and the numbers prove it.
When you dig into Brighton's data against the Premier League's best in class, the picture becomes very interesting for those of us who like a shots bet when the prices are right.
From 10 games against Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City under this manager's watch, Brighton have averaged a very impressive 16.1 shots per game to a backdrop of a significantly healthy 1.78 expected goals per game. That is outrageous output. That is title-contender chance creation from a side that aren't sniffing anywhere near a title challenge.
Brighton consistently punch holes in high-pressing, high-line systems because Hurzeler refuses to change his principles. The reward? Buckets of shots and a puncher's chance of a result.
We can jump on Brighton to register 12 or more shots at Evens with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Burnley vs Fulham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
A key edge to exploit in betting card markets revolves around the referee appointment. Prices lean heavily on team and league averages while one of the most influential factors - the referee - remains oddly under-weighted in how odds are compiled.
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Sky Bet have pitched under 3.5 cards at 10/11 here - a fair line based on the averages - but referee identity is everything in this market and Michael Oliver radically changes the story.
Oliver is a fascinating case study this season.
Once one of the Premier League's stricter enforcers, he has taken a notable turn toward a more hands-off approach. Whether that's a conscious stylistic evolution or simply the natural rhythm of the matches he's overseen, the data tells us he's averaging just 2.3 cards per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Under 3.5 cards (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Wolves, Saturday 8pm
Finding value when a team is priced at heavy odds-on is an art-form that the best gamblers out there can consistently nail. Arsenal are 1/10 to beat Wolves with Sky Bet - a price that tells you the market sees this as little more than a formality.
There are ways to turn short-odds juggernauts into something far more backable. And adding a goals angle is often the cleanest route, as we have done with success this season on Arsenal. Our old friend of Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet is the line that appeals.
Arsenal don't do goal-glut football. Quite the opposite, really. Across all competitions, their matches are averaging just 2.67 goals per 90 minutes, a surprisingly modest return for a team perceived as a free-flowing force. Mikel Arteta's men have seen 14 of their wins this season land the 3.5 goals too.
This is how they operate. They strangle games, not stretch them, so this one looks unlikely to get out of hand for Wolves.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
Crystal Palace have managed to score seven goals in the last four meetings with Manchester City, so the both teams to score angle is lighting up like a Christmas tree - but the market is fully aligned at a very skinny 4/9 with Sky Bet.
However, there is a smarter way to attack this angle.
The sharper play regarding goals is to back the players who score them better than anyone else in the Premier League in Erling Haaland and Jean-Philippe Mateta, who as a pair can be backed at 100/30 to both find the net through the BuildABet function with Sky Bet.
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Haaland feels like a cheat code most weeks, but it's the other name on the ticket that unlocks the price. Mateta has quietly transformed from cult figure to legitimate Premier League hotshot, and the numbers back it up. In 2025 the two most prolific strikers in the Premier League are Haaland (23 goals) and Mateta (17).
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Nottingham Forest are still having issues defending set-pieces.
Eleven goals conceded from such situations - the joint-most in the Premier League - paints a pretty ugly picture, but the deeper numbers are even more damning. Forest are allowing a goal from a set-piece once every six shots they face from those scenarios.
And if you're looking to find value in Tottenham matches, set-piece angles remain a fruitful way to do it. Thomas Frank takes this part of the game very seriously - the master of the marginal gain and with seven Premier League goals from corners this season, it puts Spurs second that particular metric behind Arsenal with eight.
Cristian Romero scores goals like he defends - with commitment, aggression and a hint of melodrama. Spurs have increasingly tailored their deliveries to target him as the first contact and he bagged twice in the 2-2 draw with Newcastle. At 15/2 with Sky Bet he's worth a swing in the anytime goalscorer market.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Sunderland vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
Sunderland are ninth in the Premier League table and have received huge plaudits for their recruitment and performances. Rightly so.
But the underlying numbers? They're waving a big red flag. According to Opta's expected points model, Sunderland should be 19th - behind Wolves.
If you repeatedly win tight matches while flirting with losing the underlying battle and then lose matches by a big number on the metrics, it usually means an overperformance is occurring. It is here.
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Strip away the emotion, the vibes, the narrative fluff, the Granit Xhaka love-in and the Black Cats' performances put them second-bottom in the metrics that usually matter most when it comes to assessing overall performance level.
And when a team's results and numbers stretch this far apart, that elastic tends to snap at some point. It could do here, where Newcastle look the call at 5/4 with Sky Bet for the away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
West Ham vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Nuno Espirito Santo and Unai Emery have crossed paths nine times as managers across the Premier League and LaLiga. And on eight of those nine occasions, both teams have scored. Different squads, different countries, different contexts but the same outcome of goals.
Emery's obsession with vertical runners and brave build-up, up against Nuno's knack for soaking up pressure but always offering a threat on the break often produces a game where both teams have enough space to land a punch.
Under Nuno, the Hammers are still working through some growing pains, too. The spirit has improved, the structure is taking shape, but the balance isn't quite there. Six of West Ham's last seven games have seen both teams score. It should land again with the draw also looking a big runner.
Combining both those angles yields a 3/1 shot to attack with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Brentford vs Leeds, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
In the world of player fouls markets, edges don't last long. A tactical shift here, a role tweak there and suddenly a player who usually draws one cheap free-kick a game is being clattered at a much higher rate. The trick is catching the moment before the market does.
And that's why Dominic Calvert-Lewin to be fouled at least twice at 5/4 with Sky Bet is a bet to consider.
The recent change in Leeds' approach to a far more direct style in their last three matches, funnelled straight into Calvert-Lewin, has completely altered the foul dynamic around him. He's the target for long diagonals, flick-ons and contested duels and he's drawn six fouls drawn in his last two-and-a-half appearances for Leeds.
Brentford, meanwhile, aren't shy about contact and their centre-backs defend aggressively meaning this price on Calvert-Lewin is a value call.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Manchester United vs Bournemouth, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
There are certain annual traditions you can set your watch by as Christmas comes into view. Mariah Carey defrosting after 11 months of inactivity and Andoni Iraola teams becoming very difficult to beat.
Under Iraola, Bournemouth have played 14 Premier League games in December, losing just two, while winning seven and drawing five.
His high-intensity, high-repetition style tends to hit peak sharpness as other teams begin to creak under the festive fixture pile-up. Bournemouth's broader form supports the case for them too.
They're unbeaten in four meetings with Manchester United and stylistically they're one of the worst types of teams for Ruben Amorim's side to face in that they are full of energy, are tactically drilled and relentless in transition.
United are still swinging between being functional and fortunate still. But one thing that is consistent is how unreliable they are. Bournemouth draw no bet at 2/1 with Sky Bet it is.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Jones Knows' best bet...
1pt treble on: Everton double chance, Arsenal to win & under 3.5 goals & under 3.5 cards in Fulham vs Burnley (7/1 with Sky Bet)
