Could Vardy spring a surprise attack? Will Aguero land the final blow?
Friday 3 May 2019 12:18, UK
Five players are in contention to land the Golden Boot - we look at the respective run-ins, stats, and ask the experts for a tip.
Just three goals separate the top five Premier League goalscorers as Mohamed Salah (21) leads the way, and the Egyptian could make it two Premier League Golden Boots in successive years. Sadio Mane (20) has spearheaded Liverpool's title challenge and is one behind him, as is Sergio Aguero of Manchester City, leading the line in familiar fashion.
With Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (19) and Jamie Vardy (18) making up the fourth and fifth spots, we take a look at the details surrounding the penultimate and final Premier League rounds of the campaign.
Goals: 21
Teams to play: Newcastle (A), Wolves (H)
Stat attack: Salah has found the net 53 times in only 72 Premier League appearances for Liverpool.
Sky Bet odds: Evens
Many have said that Salah has underperformed this campaign, which is quite staggering if this is what underperforming looks like. He may have set high standards from last season, but Salah is in prime position. It's his to lose.
Goals: 20
Teams to play: Newcastle (A), Wolves (H)
Stat attack: Mane has doubled his Premier League goals tally from last season and has got double figures for the fifth Premier League campaign in a row.
Sky Bet odds: 11/4
Will it ultimately be team-mates Salah and Mane going head to head in the finale to the contest for the Golden Boot? Mane has arguably been the best of Liverpool's front three this year, although with Salah coming back into form, it makes it increasingly difficult for the Senegal international to get over the line.
Goals: 20
Teams to play: Leicester (H), Brighton (A)
Stat attack: No Premier League player has scored more hat-tricks in the competition than Aguero (level with Alan Shearer), while he has scored more than 20 goals in his last five seasons for Manchester City.
Sky Bet odds: 21/10
Aguero was in pole position when he hit two hat-tricks in quick succession against Arsenal and Chelsea, but only two goals in eight games followed this, which enabled Salah and Mane to close the gap and overtake. Aguero does turn up in big games and there is no doubt he could come up with the goods in both of City's remaining fixtures as they look to close out the title.
Goals: 19
Teams to play: Brighton (H), Burnley (A)
Stat attack: His first 10 goals of this Premier League term came from his first 10 shots on target - the first player to do this since Benni McCarthy for Blackburn in 2007.
Sky Bet odds: 14/1
Although he has two in three, Aubameyang only has six Premier League goals from his last 15 games, which is not Golden Boot form. Arsenal's inconsistency alongside Unai Emery's reluctance to start the Gabon international frontman has hindered his chances of winning this award.
Goals: 18
Teams to play: Manchester City (A), Chelsea (H)
Stat attack: Vardy became the first player in Premier League history to register on the scoresheet against each of the 'big six' teams in the same season (Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal), while has scored five goals against 'big six' sides this year.
Sky Bet odds: 66/1
On the top-six matter, Vardy has five in 10 against them this campaign, and faces Manchester City and Chelsea in his last two. The Englishman scored at the Etihad Stadium last season and struck at Stamford Bridge earlier on this term, so why would you rule him out from a late surge up the charts?
The way that things are going here, with Liverpool still in the Champions League, it may be a struggle. I am expecting them to win both of their Premier League games, but Newcastle do not concede much, so it may be hard for either Salah or Mane to win the Golden Boot. With Manchester City playing Leicester and Brighton, this falls into Aguero's hands.
As well as this, Salah is one in front of Mane. Do they shoot on sight now and will that be a problem in the games to come? Mane has had a better season than Salah, but then if this is just a moderate season for Salah, then how do you account for that?
Sterling and Vardy have no chance, and Aubameyang is definitely a no with Arsenal's unpredictability. Aguero is going to be the one to nick this I think. Leicester play an overly-expansive game so it will suit City and Aguero here. I am slightly edging towards Aguero as he will be fresher than the other two in the run-in.
Charlie's tip: Sergio Aguero (21/10 with Sky Bet)
Like Charlie, I'm keen on swerving both Liverpool strikers at the prices. Goals will be hard to come by at St James' Park and tiredness could play a part after a demanding trip to Barcelona; the data shows that Jurgen Klopp teams average far fewer goals than the mean after an away European trip. With that in mind, 21/10 for Aguero to score in the next two games to bring about at least a dead-heat return looks a runner. However, the 14/1 about Aubameyang seems a bit too big to resist.
Arsenal are conceding an alarming number of goals but they remain potent in attack. Only Liverpool and Manchester City have scored more goals than the Gunners at home and Brighton, albeit strong at the back, should offer up chances to Aubameyang, who also bagged a double against Burnley earlier this season. Two goals should leave him with a share of the Golden Boot spoils. He's worth a swing at 14/1. (Lewis Jones)
Lewis' tip: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (14/1 with Sky Bet)
Based upon the Fantasy form guide, Vardy (169 points) would be a great pick considering his 10 goals from nine matches, although his two tough games could put many bosses off selecting him, alongside his low selection percentage at just 3.1 despite his recent form.
Salah (246 points) looks to be coming back into form just at the right time and this may be a good time to utilise the Egyptian as your captain choice, which could be the difference between winning and losing your mini-league and climbing valuable places in the leaderboard.
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