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Saturday 12 November 2022 17:06, UK
Fresh from a profitable week, our tipster Jones Knows has three best bets to attack this weekend with Mohamed Salah tipped to score at 4/1.
As patriotic levels grow ahead of the World Cup, I'm pushing for Harvey Barnes and Callum Wilson should be knighted for their services to this column.
Barnes - who remains severely underestimated by the markets across his attacking output - delivered the goods on a 15/2 winner for us by scoring in a comfortable Leicester City win at Everton. Now he's fixed the defence, Brendan Rodgers has an exciting second half of the season to look forward to. That winner meant we ended the weekend in profit despite losing stakes on an under 5.5 goals treble in Chelsea vs Arsenal, Aston Villa vs Man Utd and Tottenham vs Liverpool - my tired limbs theory equating in low goal returns yielded no returns.
And, Nottingham Forest to win and under 2.5 goals in their clash with Brentford was looking good for 44 minutes with Forest 1-0 up and comfortable but a penalty to Brentford out of nothing completely changed the game. I remain unimpressed with Thomas Frank's team and for all the positivity I carry on Leicester for after the World Cup, I'm equally as negative on Brentford's prospects. The 6/1 for relegation will shorten at some point between now and May that's for sure.
Extra beef for the profit and loss column came via the inclusion of Wilson in the England squad. We advised backing the Newcastle striker to make the plane at 6/1 with Sky Bet in August and Gareth Southgate couldn't ignore his form for such an upwardly mobile side. The first of many intelligent footballing decisions made by the England boss over the next few weeks, we hope.
With such a one-sided encounter anticipated, my eyes have wandered elsewhere for a potential angle in. This game has the potential to fizzle out long before the whistle so the chances of a lack of cards certainly makes appeal. Both these teams rank very low for average cards per-90 with City bottom of the pile with 2.67 and Brentford are only just above them at 2.92 per-90.
A look at both meetings between the teams also adds further fuel to the low card-count argument as in both Premier League clashes last season no cards were shown. Brentford are happy to play in a low block away from home against the top teams so chances for the game to be stretched, which in turn increases the likelihood of the tempo increasing and chances for cynical or reckless challenges.
A very generous 11/10 for under 30 booking points is on offer from Sky Bet meaning we'll cop a return if there are two or fewer bookings in the match and no red cards. Those that like backing longer shots should snaffle up the 15/2 with Sky Bet on the game following the pattern of the last two meetings and producing zero cards. Since Pep Guardiola took charge, City have had eight Premier League home games vs "non-big-six" teams where no cards have been shown. This could be the ninth.
Sometimes it's very easy to overcomplicate things in life. Keeping it simple is usually the most intelligent way of dealing with a conundrum and that is especially relevant in my line of work.
So, no awards for originality here but Mohamed Salah looks a fine bet to score at the prices available. Unlike other elite players this weekend, Salah should be at full throttle for Liverpool as he's got the next six weeks off due to Egypt not qualifying for the World Cup. Southampton should be fearful as Salah looks sharp, arguably, the sharpest he's looked since signing his new Anfield deal and he's scored five goals in his last four appearances across all competitions.
Sky Bet's offering of 7/2 on his first goalscorer price, the 10/11 on his anytime scorer prospects and even the 22/1 for a hat-trick should all be considered for those looking for a wager.
Combine those best bets into one comforting treble.