Match highlights of every Premier League game this season to be shown on the Sky Sports website and app; watch Burnley vs Southampton live on Sky Sports
Thursday 21 April 2022 13:53, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows previews a huge midweek fixture list in the Premier League and is backing goals at Turf Moor on Thursday.
Burnley's change of mentality to playing "must-win" football in the last three matches has seen a positive effect on how many goals there will be in their games. Games have been much more open affairs with their past three seeing seven goals scored and a total expected goals figure of 13.45 when collating both teams. That xG figure tells the whole story.
How the 1-1 draw with West Ham stayed under 2.5 was all about the sheer brilliance of Nick Pope and general wasteful nature of Maxwel Cornet from 12 yards.
Southampton are a reliable team when it comes to goal-heavy matches, too. Their away games this season have averaged 3.27 goals per 90 minutes with 60 per cent of those matches producing four or more goals.
The markets have the goal line around 2.5 goals, which I think is too low. This means backing overs is the way to go.
