Premier League betting: Back Harrison Reed shots at 13/2 and 40/1 weekend acca - Jones Knows
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Saturday 3 September 2022 17:25, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows is investing in Fulham to pepper Tottenham with plenty of shots and has a 40/1 accumulator to ponder.
How did we get on last weekend?
We are back in business thanks to Harvey Elliott's beautiful, beautiful left peg. The 3/1 on him to score against Bournemouth was a double stakes play so we managed to land six points of profit there to take us back into the black.
Ilkay Gundogan being benched by Pep Guardiola meant the Elliott-Gundogan double and the Gundogan to score first plays were both voided, so we pushed our stakes there. And the speculative shout on Dan Burn to score first never really got me off my seat. He is going to pop up at a wild price soon - timing will be everything.
Meanwhile, March is usually one of my most favourite months.
There is a freshness in the air, the summer is approaching and the Cheltenham Festival makes me so giddy. However, Brighton winger Solly March is beginning to change my view. He is making poor finishing an art form which is starting to become a problem in my life considering there remains absolute world-class prices of 10/1 about him scoring anytime and 22/1 about him scoring first.
March is now up to an expected goals tally of 1.38 this season with three big chances missed - no Premier League player has a higher xG this season without managing to score. I am walking away from him this weekend vs Leicester, though, so please feel free to make the most of my downfall by backing him to score a hat-trick at 500/1.
P+L = +1.5
2pts on: Palhinha, Andreas Pereira and Harrison Reed to have at least four shots between them for Fulham vs Tottenham (11/4 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
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1pt on: Harrison Reed to have two or more shots (13/2 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
I am fully on board with the opposition shots train in Tottenham matches while they remain at their current performance level.
West Ham (14), Nottingham Forest (17) and Wolves (20) all performed above market expectations in their total shots tally against Spurs, whose tactic to defend deep and spring on the counter does offer up a huge amount of territory to the opposition. Fulham arrive in great heart and them to post 11 or more shots at Evens with Sky Bet looks completely fair enough.
I've got creative, though, and am focusing on the Fulham central area where the shots may fly from. Spurs are prone to racking up shots from opposition players who play centrally. Tomas Soucek, Declan Rice and Pablo Fornals all had at least two shots apiece against Spurs (seven in total), Ryan Yates and Lewis O'Brien had five between them for Forest and Ruben Neves and Matheus Nunes had seven in Spurs' 1-0 win over Wolves. This line of thinking makes the 11/4 offered by Sky Bet on Palhinha, Andreas Pereira and Harrison Reed to register four or more shots between them a very interesting play.
Those getting involved should also back Reed on his own to cover the two shots line at 13/2.
Looking at his average position data, Reed has been given more license to attack with the addition of the brilliant Palhinha almost playing as a third centre-back at times. He has posted four shots in his five appearances and has been underrated by the oddsmakers.
1pt on: Everton to win or draw vs Liverpool, West Ham to win or draw vs Chelsea, Nottingham Forest to beat Bournemouth & Manchester United most booking points vs Arsenal (40/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
I felt four of my strongest fancies from the weekend card are worth playing as a four-fold. Head to the prediction column for reasoning.
0.5pts on: Rodri to score a header for Man City vs Aston Villa (28/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
One area of weakness that doesn't get picked up by the markets in a struggling side is their lack of defensive organisation defending set-pieces which brings plenty of punting opportunities to the table in the opposition player shots and goals markets.
Despite their run of kind fixtures, Aston Villa have conceded the second most shots from set-pieces this season, including three goals. Gabriel Jesus had four shots himself on Wednesday night for Arsenal as the Gunners caused Villa so many problems when the ball was played into their box. For all their pretty passing and delicate football, Man City scored the most goals of anyone in the Premier League last season from set-pieces (21) so their players are always worth considering when the price is right.
The player who sticks out to me here is Rodri, who, along with the two centre-backs, is always in the mixer from a City set-piece. There are a few ways to attack his prices. As he's also a threat banging shots in from range, the 6/5 with Sky Bet for him to have two shots should give you a run. He's had 18 shots in his last 10 games.
Those looking to dream should consider the 28/1 with Sky Bet for him to score a header. Of those 18 shots, five of them have been headers with two goals scored. OK, the sample size is quite small but a player who is City's biggest threat from set-pieces with such a decent record should be shorter than 28/1 to register his third headed goal in his last 11 starts.
