Premier League predictions and best bets: Aston Villa can capitalise on jittery Arsenal
Watch EVERY Premier League game over the New Year period live on Sky Sports; Live on Tuesday: Burnley vs Newcastle, Chelsea vs Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest vs Everton, West Ham vs Brighton, Arsenal vs Aston Villa & Man Utd vs Wolves; Play Super 6 to win £100,000!
Monday 29 December 2025 19:59, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the next batch of Premier League fixtures and tips Aston Villa to get a result at Arsenal...
Burnley vs Newcastle, Tuesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Despite being odds-on favourites at Burnley, Newcastle's recent road form suggests this won't be pretty.
Under Eddie Howe, in a season when they are juggling Champions League football, their record away from home in games played when they've only had three days or less to prepare for a game is horrendous. From 18 fixtures they've won just three of those, drawing seven and losing eight. That includes defeats to Luton, Bournemouth, West Ham and Brentford.
Overall, they've managed just one away Premier League win in their last 12 - a run that's been littered with moments of attacking promise but undermined by poor game management and defensive fragility.
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The idea of Newcastle being a reliable bet on their travels doesn't quite ring true given the numbers. At 3/1 Burnley are worth a swing on the draw no bet with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Chelsea vs Bournemouth, Tuesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Enzo Maresca has been proven right. Chelsea are not in the title race.
After beating Burnley on November 22, Chelsea were three points behind leaders Arsenal. They are now 13 points off the pace.
Bournemouth could be just what Chelsea need right now though. Andoni Iraola's team are winless in nine games and have conceded three or more goals in each of their last six Premier League away games as Iraola's unique style is being ripped to shreds by opposition attackers.
Enzo Fernandez isn't the first name most people gravitate towards in Chelsea goalscorer markets, but his underlying data at Stamford Bridge tells a different story. Across his last 10 home games in the Premier League and Champions League, he's averaging 2.3 shots per 90 - the second-highest figure of any player in that sample.
More importantly, Fernandez is leading Chelsea for expected goals per 90 at home (0.4) across those matches. That's a significant marker. He's consistently getting into areas where chances carry genuine threat - meaning the 3/1 with Sky Bet on his anytime price is chunky.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2
Nottingham Forest vs Everton, Tuesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Nottingham Forest may have fallen short in the end against Man City, but their centre-forward Igor Jesus left with an enhanced reputation and with two of Europe's most accomplished defenders knowing they'd been in a proper fight.
Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol, usually so serene in City's defensive structure, spent much of the afternoon retreating, grappling and fouling - four times between them - as they struggled to contain Forest's physical focal point. More of the same foul drawing numbers are expected up against the likes of James Tarkowski and Michael Keane who will approach the challenge of engaging with their usual meeting fire-with-fire style. The Brazilian striker is 11/8 with Sky Bet to be fouled at least twice.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Igor Jesus to win +2 fouls (13/8 with Sky Bet)
West Ham vs Brighton, Tuesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Brighton, for all their fluidity and lovely patterns, simply do not enjoy playing teams who go direct and turn them. And once again they are being vastly overrated by the oddsmakers where they have been chalked up as 11/10 favourites with Sky Bet.
Under Fabian Hurzeler, Brighton have won 19 of 37 Premier League games when their opponents have played under 15 per cent of passes long, but only three of 18 games otherwise. West Ham are part of that sample size when grabbing a 1-1 draw at the Amex in a clinical and composed performance that was just a few minutes away from landing an away win.
Following the Hammers on the draw no bet at 11/8 with Sky Bet looks a shrewd move.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Arsenal vs Aston Villa, Tuesday 8.15pm, live on Sky Sports
Under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal's home matches are defined by fast, aggressive starts. From the first whistle, they squeeze the pitch, dominate territory and look to impose themselves early. That approach has translated into a trend of Arsenal scoring the first goal in 23 of their last 25 home games.
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Aston Villa, by contrast, are almost the opposite profile. They're not a side associated with quick starts away from home. In fact, they've scored first in just one of their last 10 away games, often needing time to grow into matches. What they are excellent at is reacting - no team has won more points from losing positions since the start of last season (36).
That tells you everything about how Villa operate: patience first, problem-solving later. Arsenal to score the first goal in the first half at 4/5 with Sky Bet looks a fantastic wager in a game where Villa may come on strong late once again to get a result.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Arsenal to score first goal in first half (4/5 with Sky Bet)
Manchester United vs Wolves, Tuesday 8.15pm, live on Sky Sports
The goal markets suggest we're heading towards a game with around three goals, but it's difficult to see how this contest escalates into anything resembling a shootout.
Yes, Manchester United won 4-1 at Molineux a few weeks ago but United's attacking resources are notably thinner this time around. Bruno Fernandes, Amad Diallo and Bryan Mbeumo are all absent, which strips creativity and penetration. Without those profiles, United's ability to open up a deep defensive block is far less convincing.
And Wolves will happily lean into that. Expect a very negative, defence-first approach, with bodies behind the ball and minimal ambition in possession. That's hardly surprising when you consider their output this season: just 10 league goals, the fewest of any team across the top four divisions. Goals simply aren't their thing.
Under 2.5 goals is priced as the outsider of the two at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Crystal Palace vs Fulham, Thursday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
This is one of those fixtures where the betting market almost dares you to ignore the most obvious outcome and offers you the biggest price on such an outcome. The draw must be the play here at 23/10 with Sky Bet involving two teams that are neither built to dominate a game and both comfortable in low-risk game states.
Draws consistently get overlooked. Punters naturally gravitate towards picking a winner, it feels more decisive, more intuitive. But in evenly matched Premier League fixtures, the draw is often the value outcome, especially when it's priced bigger than both win options, as it is here.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Liverpool vs Leeds, Thursday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Set pieces feel like a key battleground in all Premier League matches now and that's where Anton Stach comes firmly into focus. Leeds have scored more goals from set pieces than any other side in the Premier League this season, while Liverpool sit uncomfortably at the other end of the spectrum, having conceded the most from dead-ball situations. That's a statistical clash you can't ignore.
Stach is on corner-taking duties, which immediately elevates his assist potential. And in games like this, rather than trying to guess which Leeds player finishes the move, it makes far more sense to side with the one delivering.
Stach's role has shifted noticeably in Leeds' 3-5-2 system, with license to operate much higher up the pitch. That tactical tweak has had a clear impact on his output. In his last five games, he's taken 16 shots, effectively doubling his previous shooting numbers, and he's already scored twice from that more advanced position. He is 9/4 with Sky Bet to register a goal or an assist.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Brentford vs Tottenham, Thursday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Tottenham have the form in the book courtesy of a very routine 2-0 home win over the Bees but the emotional pull of this occasion heavily favours the home side. Thomas Frank was the architect of their rise and his return as the opposing manager will surely sharpen focus rather than distract it. Brentford's players, fresh from an intense and impressive win over Bournemouth, will be keen to prove that the system, not just the coach, still stands strong.
A competitive and awkward contest for Spurs could be on the cards, where their tactical preparation is tested by a Brentford side determined to show they're more than just their former manager - something that's not factored into the prices. A home win looks the play at 5/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Sunderland vs Manchester City, Thursday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Pep Guardiola's side aren't in the business of wild scorelines on their travels. Across City's last 23 away matches, we're seeing an average of 2.6 total goals per game, but that figure is skewed by one total outlier - the bonkers 5-4 at Fulham. Strip that freak result out and the number drops sharply to 2.1 goals per match, which is far more representative of how City manage games on the road.
City don't tend to blow teams away early on the road, instead, they suffocate them. Long spells of possession, territorial dominance and an emphasis on game control rather than relentless attacking risk. There's also the Guardiola festive-period factor, which is impossible to ignore. Between December 26 and January 7, in Guardiola last 16 matches, he's overseen 14 wins and two draws. No defeats. It's a time of year where his teams are drilled, focused and usually a step ahead of opponents. A Man City win and under 3.5 goals is a winner in waiting at 6/5 with Sky Bet.
