Race for the Champions League: Should Aston Villa be 'panicked' ahead of 'cup final' with Chelsea?
Aston Villa host Chelsea on Wednesday having slipped to fourth in the table after loss at Wolves; Chelsea are sixth after defeat at Arsenal; top five should secure Champions League progression next season; watch free highlights from Villa Park shortly after FT across Sky Sports' platforms
Monday 2 March 2026 15:08, UK
Aston Villa manager Unai Emery was "dreaming" of the Premier League title only a few weeks ago, but now they face something of a 'cup final' with Chelsea on Wednesday.
Just five games ago, Villa were looking upwards, level on points with second-placed Man City and four adrift of leaders Arsenal.
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However, after a disastrous February that has seen them win just one of their five league matches - and even that was an unconvincing late victory at home to Brighton - Emery's side now find themselves down in fourth place and both Liverpool and Chelsea within striking distance as we move into the final 10 games of the season.
Liverpool currently occupy fifth place, three points off Villa, with Chelsea a further three points back in sixth.
"In September I was worried and the objective was to stay in the Premier League," Emery said following Villa's 2-0 loss at Wolves on Friday Night Football, just their Midlands rivals' second league win of the season.
"In December I was so happy and excited to get the top five position and achieve the Champions League.
"One month ago, I was dreaming about maybe winning the Premier League. Now we are in the average to be in the top five. Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, they are trying to get to us, for them it is a priority to get into the Champions League."
I'm starting to panic at that now. There are some big games ahead for Villa. Now they are going into two absolutely huge games against teams that are chasing exactly what they want. At the moment, I can see Villa falling apart.
Chelsea, meanwhile, are also in a hotly-contested battle for next season's Champions League after losing at Arsenal on Sunday, a result that has seen the Blues slip out of the top five ahead of what now looks like a potentially season-defining trip to Villa Park on Wednesday night.
And with Chelsea having made a financial loss of £355m in the 2024-25 season, according to new data released by UEFA - the biggest deficit ever recorded by an English football club - it is equally imperative the west London club are competing in Europe's premier club competition next season given the riches now on offer in its newly-expanded format.
According to financial blogger Swiss Ramble, Manchester City and Liverpool have made £84m each so far this season, Arsenal £83m, Chelsea £80m and Spurs £73m.
So, what factors will come into play between now and May in determining if Villa and Chelsea are in next season's Champions League and will they both make it?
Does top five mean Champions League qualification?
As things stand, the good news for Villa and Chelsea is the Premier League is on course to have five teams competing in next season's Champions League via their league performances.
Heading into next week's last-16 ties in Europe, England, who still have all nine teams in the three competitions, sit top of UEFA's coefficient table.
And with a healthy lead currently over third-placed Spain, it would now take a series of disastrous results - similar to what happened to English clubs in the quarter-finals two years ago - to lose their position in the top two.
How about their run-ins?
Both Villa and Chelsea have their fate in their own hands, starting on Wednesday when they go head to head.
Villa then take on Manchester United in a repeat of their final-day trip to Old Trafford that ultimately ended their Champions League hopes last May, before they finish the campaign by taking on top-five rivals Liverpool at Villa Park on the penultimate weekend and title challengers Man City at the Etihad in their final fixture.
Aston Villa's next five fixtures:
- March 4 - Chelsea (h)
- March 12 - Lille (a) Europa League
- March 15 - Man Utd (a)
- March 19 - Lille (h) Europa League
- March 22 - West Ham (h)
As for Chelsea, they face back-to-back games against Manchester City and United at Stamford Bridge in April, before travelling to Liverpool in May, three fixtures that will surely decide their Champions League fate.
- March 4 - Villa (a)
- March 7 - Wrexham (a) - FA Cup
- March 11 - PSG (a) Champions League
- March 14 - Newcastle (h)
- March 17 - PSG (h) Champions League
What does the Opta Supercomputer say?
According to Opta's Supercomputer, despite their recent drop in form, Villa still have an almost 90 per cent chance of competing in next season's Champions League via a top-five finish.
However, despite joking, "I'd love to see what this supercomputer looks like" ahead of his side's trip to the Emirates, it does not make such good reading for Liam Rosenior's side, who are given just a 34.4 per cent chance of making it into the top five come May, significantly less than both Manchester United [82.6 per cent] and Liverpool [79.8 per cent].
How do the pundits see it?
Sky Sports' Gary Neville is torn between Chelsea and Villa for that final Champions League spot if England does get five places next season.
"I hope Villa finish in the top five, I really do," he said on the Gary Neville podcast. "I've said before that their manager is an experienced and wise guy. If they get some players back; midfield players being injured have cost them in the last few weeks.
"The only doubt will be Chelsea or Villa for fifth and I think Chelsea will finish fifth. Injuries will be a big factor. Other competitions will be a big factor. At the moment, they're in danger Villa. They're vulnerable in terms of the Champions League places."
Former Villa midfielder Lee Hendrie agrees that his former club are now in a real danger of missing out on a top-five spot.
"For all the good form you've had, a poor start, they show character, showed belief. I'm not seeing that at the moment. Villa's results look ugly," he told Sky Sports.
"For me, at the moment, Villa's season is hanging in the balance. Look at the FA Cup game against Newcastle [which] wasn't good enough, got knocked out.
"Yes, they are in the Europa League next stages. I'm starting to panic at that now. There are some big games ahead for Villa. Now they are going into two absolutely huge games against teams that are chasing exactly what they want. At the moment, I can see Villa falling apart.
"They must be feeling the pressure. They must be. You can go on great runs throughout the season, but this is where the crucial part of the Premier League is. Regardless, you can paper over the cracks, but you have to get on with things.
"I'm not seeing that at the moment and I haven't seen that over recent weeks and that worries me. So yes, there is time to worry.
"Manchester United are in great form, and Chelsea are in great form. Liverpool are in the chasing pack and all of a sudden, Villa are dropping points. Everyone's starting to feel a bit negative and that is a big problem. Big clubs deal with that, big players deal with that. This is where Villa are.
"Not so long ago, we were talking about Villa winning the title. All of a sudden, we are talking about them dropping out of the top five. This would be a disaster for their season."
Watch free highlights of Aston Villa vs Chelsea shortly after full-time on Wednesday night across Sky Sports' platforms
