Saturday 18 March 2017 12:28, UK
What if Tony Pulis' brand of football is the most efficient way for his teams to win? Adam Bate examines how the veteran West Brom manager's methods are more aligned with advances in analytics than many had anticipated...
Analytics conferences are places that embrace new ideas. This is an environment that scoffs at the mainstream acceptance of Sam Allardyce as a statistically-savvy coach; an unforgiving school for anyone outside the uninitiated - this writer included.
So it was striking that during a presentation on shot optimisation by Neil Charles at last month's OptaPro Forum, there was praise for that oldest of old school managers Tony Pulis. It seems that the West Brom boss really is playing the percentages.
In a section looking at the secret of Pulis' success, Charles examined where on the pitch that West Brom's balls into the box come from. "Everyone immediately jumps on West Brom and says, 'Look at Tony Pulis, that's incredible'," he explained.
"Everything that West Brom play into the box, virtually, comes off the shoulder of the penalty area on the diagonal. Everything. People have pointed out it is so that he cannot get counter-attacked."
Charles's model then looked at the location of West Brom's shots too and an interesting connection between the two emerged. "Their shots come from an area just outside the six-yard box and central," he added. "West Brom don't shoot from anywhere else, pretty much.
"What does the model think you should do from that (crossing) position? It thinks you should hit a point just outside the six-yard box. It's almost spot on as a strategy. It may not be the prettiest strategy but it's an effective one and we can quantify that."
While fans shout for the players to shoot from distance, Pulis encourages more pragmatic decision-making. It's a fitting notion for a man interested in accumulating points not praise. Pulis has constructed a way of playing - the so-called Pulisball - that has translated limited resources into results.
On the face of it, West Brom's team is unremarkable. There is experience but most regard Stoke and Southampton's squads as more talented. Crystal Palace and Leicester are further behind. But it's the Baggies on course for a joint-best Premier League finish of eighth.
Pulis himself, still without a Premier League relegation to his name in his ninth season, is on track for his first-ever top-half finish. Far from being caught out, he has his rivals playing catch up. So what else is he doing differently?
Set pieces
As well as shot optimisation, Pulis has long been interested in what might be regarded as 'cheap' goals. His use of the long throw, particularly during Rory Delap's time in the Potteries, played a part in helping to stabilising Stoke in the top flight.
Once again, the analytics experts have acknowledged that there was much to be said for this approach.
Ted Knutson recently launched StatsBomb services, a consultancy business with an emphasis on helping clubs utilise set-pieces more effectively. He points to Stoke's use of the long throw as a key example of how a team can turn an overlooked aspect of the game to their advantage.
"This is a phase of play where the vast majority of teams produce nothing," explained Knutson. "Stoke produced a shot and a half a game just from throw-ins during the Rory Delap years. If you are able to build and execute a long-throw program, it's the equivalent of magicking free goals out of thin air."
Pulis' appetite for set-piece goals remains and, what's more, he has proven it is transferable. West Brom currently top the charts for goals from such situations with 16 - that's three more than any other team in the Premier League.
Of course, they have the players to pull off that strategy. Gareth McAuley's presence as an aerial threat predates Pulis' arrival at The Hawthorns and so does Chris Brunt's delivery. But their success marks a trend that is undeniably linked to their manager.
Only Sir Alex Ferguson's Manchester United scored more goals from set pieces during Pulis' final three years in charge at Stoke. The Welshman utilises dead-ball situations everywhere he goes - getting the advantages that others miss.
"The manager's set pieces are notorious, and we make sure we nail them down - for and against," said Baggies winger Matt Phillips in a recent interview with the Daily Mail. "We have our own routines, they're almost like American Football plays."
Full-backs
Pulis' success from set pieces is partially explained by his use of full-backs. While the trend is undoubtedly towards more attacking players in these positions, he has rejected that approach by converting centre-backs rather than wingers to fill the roles.
After frequently lining up with four tall defenders on Stoke's narrow pitch, Pulis has since used the likes of Joleon Lescott and more recently Craig Dawson and Jonny Evans in the full-back areas. These players are perhaps not as comfortable on the ball but that's not the plan.
"To play for his team, I think I needed a pair of high heels," Costa Rican full-back Cristian Gamboa once complained. "I asked my wife if I could borrow a pair for training." But there is method to it as it provides even greater aerial ammunition for Pulis' team.
That can be an advantage defensively because it means bodies in the box who are equipped to clear the ball, but it also suits how Pulis sees the role of a full-back. The overlap is not a priority because - as noted by Charles - the focus is on preventing the counter-attack.
The space behind the full-backs has become a key area of the pitch for teams looking to break quickly against their opponents. In particular, it's an area that Liverpool have struggled with when facing supposedly weaker opponents this season.
"The full-backs go forwards but their problem is that the centre-backs don't want to go outside the width of the 18-yard box," Danny Higginbotham, twice signed by Pulis, told Sky Sports. "There is space down the sides. This is Liverpool's biggest problem."
With West Brom, that space behind the full-backs is rarely there and a major weapon for many Premier League opponents is neutralised. Leicester recognised that last season and it was a factor in their dramatic upturn in form.
Kasper Schmeichel identified the introduction of two "defensive-minded" full-backs in Danny Simpson and Christian Fuchs as making the difference because having two players roaming forwards from that position had caused more problems than it had solved.
"It left huge, huge spaces to be exposed in behind," said Schmeichel. "It was good for us, because we needed to change something. Now we have four defenders in there."
Playing those four out-and-out defenders helped Leicester to keep 14 clean sheets in 26 games alongside each other in winning the Premier League title last season.
They stumbled upon it but for Pulis this was already a core element of his tactics. West Brom won't repeat the Foxes' feat but yet again it seems that a key feature of what actually works when it comes to beating the odds was already standard practice for Pulis.
Perhaps that sums up his success. Throughout his Premier League career, Pulis has intuitively appreciated the most important qualities that teams need to possess if they are to outperform their abilities.
Pulisball works. And while the architect behind it might have little truck with the rise of analytics, it seems that the number-crunchers behind it are finally able to help us understand why.
