Wycombe, Southend, Stevenage and Plymouth - Peter Beagrie assesses the League Two play-offs
Friday 8 May 2015 15:47, UK
Sky Sports' Football League expert Peter Beagrie looks at the League Two play-off contenders as part of his bumper play-off guide.
Wycombe and Southend will be aiming to put the disappointment of missing out on automatic promotion behind them as they face Plymouth and Stevenage respectively in the semi-finals.
Beags assesses all four sides' chances - and picks the men to watch...
PLYMOUTH V WYCOMBE
Plymouth showed exactly what they were all about on the final day of the season when they got that tremendous win against a Shrewsbury side who had the title to play for.
There were question marks over John Sheridan last term when they didn't really have the firepower. They were tight defensively but massively reliant on Reuben Reid, who was getting too little back-up. This year, though, Sheridan has added a new dimension.
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Kelvin Miller, the wing-back on the right-hand side, has been outstanding. He has really come to the fore in the last few weeks, and Reid has kept on scoring. He has shown the sort of form that earned him a big move from Rotherham to West Brom and, as well as looking really hungry and lean again, he has got the perfect foil in Lewis Alessandra, a man who works tirelessly and runs the channels for his team-mate to profit.
Under Sheridan's tutelage, Plymouth are in a better place than they have been in years, in my opinion.
Wycombe are a tough proposition, though. Gareth Ainsworth's side have come up short but that wafer-thin squad was always going to be a problem; he was sometimes operating with just 16 pros.
They had to adapt after losing Paris Cowan-Hall but Gareth's got the old warhouse Paul Hayes firing up front and Fred Onyedinma, who extended his stay at Adams Park as part of that deal that sent Cowan-Hall to Millwall, has done really well playing either as a forward-thinking midfielder or up top.
For the measure of Wycombe's achievement, you only have to look at last season when they stayed up on the last day by virtue of goal difference. Their spirit, enthusiasm and - let's not forget - quality has been tremendous.
They just lost out to a stellar Bury who had numbers, quality and a lot more investment, but while it's difficult to take, Gareth is the glass-half-full type who is certainly capable of rallying the troops.
Like Preston, Wycombe will be going all out to wrestle back promotion they think should rightfully be theirs, but it doesn't matter what your story is or how much you have spent. You are where you are after a 46-game season and you have simply got to go again.
BEAGS' KEY MEN: REUBEN REID (PLYMOUTH) AND ALFIE MAWSON (WYCOMBE)
OPTA STATS
Wycombe have won their last three away trips to Plymouth, keeping a clean sheet in each game.
Plymouth last kept a clean sheet against the Chairboys at home in May 2003 (a run of six games).
The away side has won each of the last five between these two, with the home side failing to score.
Plymouth have featured in play-offs twice before, losing in the third-tier semi-finals in 1993/94 and winning the fourth-tier play-offs in 1995/96.
Wycombe won the fourth-tier play-offs in 1993/94, but have fallen at the semi-final stage in their two most recent appearances (2005/06 and 2007/08).
Only Matt Tubbs (21) and Jamie Cureton (19) scored more goals in the regular season than Reuben Reid managed (18).
Wycombe’s 84 points is the highest they have recorded in a Football League season. Only one side has failed to be promoted from this tier with that high a tally (MK Dons in 2006/07).
SKY BET'S VIEW
Plymouth maintained their play-off position with back-to-back victories to end the season and they are 11/8 with Sky Bet to maintain the good form and claim a first-leg victory over Wycombe on Saturday evening. John Sheridan’s side beat the Wanderers 2-0 back in February but suffered a 1-0 home defeat in the reverse fixture at the start of the campaign and it’s 2-1 against a third away triumph between these two. The draw is priced at 9/4 and 1-1 tops the correct score market at 9/2 with the Football League sponsors. Argyle are 11/4 to win this game to nil, with Wycombe 7/2, while over 2.5 goals to be scored in the match is available at 11/8. It’s clearly expected to be a tight and nervy night and with that in mind it could pay off to side with no goals being scored in the first half.
STEVENAGE V SOUTHEND
Two big physical sides, this could be a real war of attrition. I don't think anyone expected Southend to lose on the final day but they finished the season in incredible form - 22 points out of 27 - and their defensive record puts them in a very strong position.
An over-reliance on Barry Corr has been a problem so Phil Brown, who is a very experienced manager, will be hoping Will Atkinson and Michael Timlin can get on the ball and create.
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Keeping it tight at Stevenage could be key because you can be sure they will be faced with a barrage of balls into the box at every opportunity. This is certainly the tie where physicality rather than skillset is at the fore.
Having said that, I watched Stevenage play Burton a few weeks ago and I was really impressed with the movement of Tom Pett and wing play of Dean Perrett and Bruno Andrade. Pett, with his quick feet, could be a gamechanger; Stevenage will look to try and get him down the sides of the centre-halves.
It's a tough one to call. Southend are still the favourites after just missing out, but you can't back against a Stevenage side who like to fly in the face of adversity.
Graham Westley has been through this situation before. He will be saying, 'It's us against the world, nobody likes us, nobody likes me'. He will be trying to stoke up that siege mentality and hoping it will be enough.
BEAGS' KEY MAN: TOM PETT (STEVENAGE) AND BARRY CORR (SOUTHEND)
OPTA STATS
Stevenage’s 4-2 win over Southend in February was their first in all competitions over them (D1 L3).
Southend have never failed to score against Stevenage in those five previous meetings.
This is the third season in five that Stevenage have been involved in the play-offs. They were promoted from League Two in 2010/11 by beating Torquay, but lost in the League One playoff semi-final to Sheffield United the following season.
Southend haven’t been promoted in the last three appearances in them (2007/08, 2011/12 and 2013/14), since their triumph in the fourth tier over Lincoln City in 2004/05, falling at the semi-final each time.
Stevenage scored 32 times through their midfielders this season, a League Two-high.
Barry Corr has scored in three of his four league appearances against Stevenage.
SKY BET'S VIEW
Stevenage and Southend both had their chances to gain automatic promotion from Sky Bet League Two and both let their opportunity slip. United are likely to be the most frustrated of the pair as ensuring a top-three place was in their own hands going into the final weekend before they were beaten 3-1 by Morecambe. Phil Brown’s men will dust themselves down and they’re 4/7 to better last year’s effort and make it through the play-off semis and reach Wembley. A United victory on Sunday evening can be backed at 9/5 with the Football League sponsors, with Stevenage 6/4 to claim a first-leg advantage having ended the season proper with a limp 2-0 loss at Luton. Graham Westley’s Borough recorded a 4-2 success over Southend at Broadway Hall at the end of February and those fancying a repeat scoreline will be rewarded at 80/1. The correct score market is topped by 1-1 at 9/2, while any score draw is chalked up at 100/30.
Watch Plymouth v Wycombe, League Two play-off semi-final first leg, live on Sky Sports 1 HD from 7.40pm on Saturday and Stevenage v Southend live on Sky Sports 1 HD from 6.30pm on Sunday.
