Premier League predictions and best bets: Leeds to grab a point at Liverpool
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Tuesday 30 December 2025 19:27, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the next batch of Premier League fixtures and tips Aston Villa to get a result at Arsenal...
Crystal Palace vs Fulham, Thursday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
This is one of those fixtures where the betting market almost dares you to ignore the most obvious outcome and offers you the biggest price on such an outcome. The draw must be the play here at 23/10 with Sky Bet involving two teams that are neither built to dominate a game and both comfortable in low-risk game states.
Draws consistently get overlooked. Punters naturally gravitate towards picking a winner, it feels more decisive, more intuitive. But in evenly matched Premier League fixtures, the draw is often the value outcome, especially when it's priced bigger than both win options, as it is here.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Liverpool vs Leeds, Thursday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Set pieces feel like a key battleground in all Premier League matches now and that's where Anton Stach comes firmly into focus. Leeds have scored more goals from set pieces than any other side in the Premier League this season, while Liverpool sit uncomfortably at the other end of the spectrum, having conceded the most from dead-ball situations. That's a statistical clash you can't ignore.
Stach is on corner-taking duties, which immediately elevates his assist potential. And in games like this, rather than trying to guess which Leeds player finishes the move, it makes far more sense to side with the one delivering.
Stach's role has shifted noticeably in Leeds' 3-5-2 system, with license to operate much higher up the pitch. That tactical tweak has had a clear impact on his output. In his last five games, he's taken 16 shots, effectively doubling his previous shooting numbers, and he's already scored twice from that more advanced position. He is 9/4 with Sky Bet to register a goal or an assist.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Brentford vs Tottenham, Thursday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Tottenham have the form in the book courtesy of a very routine 2-0 home win over the Bees but the emotional pull of this occasion heavily favours the home side. Thomas Frank was the architect of their rise and his return as the opposing manager will surely sharpen focus rather than distract it. Brentford's players, fresh from an intense and impressive win over Bournemouth, will be keen to prove that the system, not just the coach, still stands strong.
A competitive and awkward contest for Spurs could be on the cards, where their tactical preparation is tested by a Brentford side determined to show they're more than just their former manager - something that's not factored into the prices. A home win looks the play at 5/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Sunderland vs Manchester City, Thursday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Pep Guardiola's side aren't in the business of wild scorelines on their travels. Across City's last 23 away matches, we're seeing an average of 2.6 total goals per game, but that figure is skewed by one total outlier - the bonkers 5-4 at Fulham. Strip that freak result out and the number drops sharply to 2.1 goals per match, which is far more representative of how City manage games on the road.
City don't tend to blow teams away early on the road, instead, they suffocate them. Long spells of possession, territorial dominance and an emphasis on game control rather than relentless attacking risk. There's also the Guardiola festive-period factor, which is impossible to ignore. Between December 26 and January 7, in Guardiola last 16 matches, he's overseen 14 wins and two draws. No defeats. It's a time of year where his teams are drilled, focused and usually a step ahead of opponents. A Man City win and under 3.5 goals is a winner in waiting at 6/5 with Sky Bet.
