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Should Cristiano Ronaldo beat Lionel Messi to Balon D'Or, asks Guillem Balague, after looking at stats?

Image: Ronaldo: will he trump Messi as player of the year?

I asked my colleague at Revista de la Liga and the Spanish football coverage, the statistician and excellent goalkeeper James Wheeler, to put in stats a feeling I've had for few months now.

Although both clubs were defeated in the Champions League semi-finals, a Ronaldo-inspired Real Madrid lifted their first La Liga title since 2008 while Messi's Barcelona only lifted the Copa Del Rey. Also although of much lesser importance, Los Blancos defeated Barca in the Spanish Super Cup at the start of this season with both players scoring in each leg.
Key period
There was a key period of just over a week in 2012 which I think justifies why Ronaldo would be a more worthy winner of the award this year. In the middle of April both sides had two legs of a Champions League semi-final with the final El Clasico of the season sandwiched in between. Messi failed to score in all three games which is his joint worst run without a goal in 2012 and bearing in mind these three games were season defining they have to be taken into consideration. Barca were on the wrong end of all three results, seeing their dream of another treble evaporate into thin air. In both legs against Chelsea he was quieter than normal and he missed a 49th-minute penalty in the second leg at the Camp Nou which would probably have seen Barca reach the final in Munich rather than the crafty Cockneys of Chelsea. Ronaldo's Real crashed out of their semi-final on penalties against Bayern and although he missed his penalty in the shootout, he scored twice in normal time including once from the penalty spot to give Real a chance of reaching the final in Bavaria. The Clasico meeting in April decided the La Liga title with Real four points ahead of Barca at kick off and with difficult remaining games they couldn't afford to lose at the home of their great rivals. Real won for the first time in four La Liga visits and with Messi quieter than usual it was left to Ronaldo to decide the fate of the La Liga title with a brilliant winning goal with the sides deadlocked at 1-1. Other arguments for Ronaldo and facts that should be considered include the fact that he has scored more Clasico goals in 2012 than Messi. Ronaldo has scored in all six Clasicos this year (seven goals). This made him the first player from either side to score in six consecutive Clasicos. Messi has scored only a shoddy four goals in six Clasico appearances in 2012. In conclusion, why should Ronaldo be crowned the world's best player this year? Ronaldo is the heartbeat of Real and I believe if you took both Messi and him out of their respective teams, Real would struggle more than Barca. Although Real's squad is stronger than Barca's, in my opinion Messi's fellow 10 starters are more capable of adapting to life without Messi than their counterparts in Madrid are. I think Ronaldo showed on his worth to Los Blancos on Saturday night in the Madrid Derby. In a drab first half a world-class free kick from CR7 effectively gave Real the win over their City rivals and thanks to Ronaldo they are still just about holding onto Barca's coat tails at the top of La Liga. Real should do whatever they can to keep him happy and contracted to them. With whispers of his unhappiness leaking into the Spanish media, Real cannot afford to let him leave. Whoever will be announced as the winner in Zurich on January 7 will be a worthy winner and if Messi does win the award for an unprecedented fourth consecutive time who am I to argue? His performances, goals and stats speak for themselves in 2012. However if you dig a little deeper, you may just think that the boy from Madeira may for this year, be a slightly more deserving winner. Do you agree with the numbers? Should Ronaldo be named the world's best player ahead of Messi? Have your say in the comments box below.