Ed Chamberlin tips up Sunday's Carling Cup Final and starts his Cheltenham Festival Watch.
Ed tips Rooney to have final say and starts his Cheltenham Festival Watch
Highlight of the week: Jose Mourinho. Dynamite! A journalist's dream. The sooner he is back in the Premier League the better.
The low point of my week was getting a text from Premier League referee Mark Halsey to say his fitness test with the football authorities had not gone as well as he'd hoped and he is still some way off a return to refereeing at the top level.
To think that Mark is even at this stage is remarkable. He has made a brilliant recovery from throat cancer but, as I remember well from my experience last year, you set yourself goals and when you don't achieve them it is hard to take.
My ambition during my chemotherapy this time last year was to be at the birth of my son and to get back on
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Soccer Specials for the start of the football season.
It is that kind of goal that keeps you going during the darkest times. Mark dreamt of refereeing the FA Cup Final and Premier League matches this season, so last week's fitness test will have been a major blow.
However, I know from his determination that this is merely a delay and Mark will be back soon and what a big welcome he will get from the football community. Mark Halsey remains an inspiration.
One goal I failed to achieve last year was being well enough to attend the Cheltenham Festival, so I intend to make amends next month!
With so much going on in the ante-post markets, this week I'm going to introduce a feature called "Cheltenham Festival Watch" which will run every week until the 'greatest show on turf' (16-19 March).
I was intrigued by the opening race at Ascot on Saturday. Finian's Rainbow was an impressive winner and is now Sky Bet's second favourite for the Neptune Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham.
However, it was the horse in fourth that caught my eye - Sereth, who is trained by a certain Barney Curley. I'm always intrigued by what Mr Curley is up to and this horse travelled like a dream on Saturday before being done for toe under tender handling from his jockey in the straight.
Sereth was a fine third in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket last October so we know he has class and stamina in abundance and I'm convinced his trainer has a plan up his sleeve. I advise keeping a close eye on Sereth when bookies price up the Festival's handicap hurdles, notably the Pertemps Final.
I'm sure Alan King is going to have a good Cheltenham after a tough season. Mille Chief is being barked from the rooftops for the Triumph Hurdle and he should be clear favourite after winning Saturday, but I'm more interested in King's handicappers as many have been sick and below par this winter, therefore well handicapped as a result.
Particularly eye-catching are Bensalem off 143 in the big handicap chase on day one and Lake Legend in the Coral Cup.
Make sure you keep an eye on my long-term fancy for the Grand National, Kilcrea Castle (50/1 with Sky Bet), who looks set to take his chance in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton on Saturday. He's expected to run a big race, which will inevitably see his odds shorten for Aintree.
The Carling Cup Final takes centre stage on Sunday from 2.45pm on Sky Sports HD1 with Man Utd Sky Bet's favourites to win the trophy inside 90 minutes at 10/11, the draw at 12/5 and Aston Villa the outsiders of the party at 16/5.
Man Utd are 2/5 to win the trophy, Villa 7/4, and check out all the special bets on the big match on Sky Bet's new-look website at
www.skybet.com
Villa are playing so well, and there are enough doubts about United's defending, to give Martin O'Neill's side a real shout on Sunday in what should be a compelling final.
However, I just side with Sir Alex's side as:
1. they have the necessary 'know-how' to win Wembley finals
2. Wayne Rooney (4/1 to score the first goal) is unstoppable at the moment and will desperate to make amends for missing out on this day last year. I think United will win but it will be close and they may well need extra time.
The last week has thrown up yet more twists and turns, with the title race a fraction more clear cut but the battles for fourth place and to avoid relegation becoming even more of a minefield.
It's astonishing to think that the bottom eight sides have won just seven out of their last 87 Premier League matches!
Chelsea have shortened to 4-7 with Skybet to win the title, with Man Utd out to 2/1 and Arsenal clipped two points to 6/1. With United at Wembley, the other two have the chance to take advantage.
Chelsea (4/9) play Manchester City (13/2) on Saturday looking for revenge for the defeat at Eastlands in December. That was only Chelsea's second defeat in 23 Premier League meetings.
They have an even better record at home where they are unbeaten in the last 11 meetings, winning the last four, and City's only PL win at Chelsea came 17 years ago - 4-2 in January 1993. Further, Chelsea have not conceded in the last seven PL meetings at Stamford Bridge and have gone a staggering 638 minutes (10 hours & 38 minutes) since they last conceded to City at home, when Paul Dickov scored in December 2000.
Since then Chelsea have scored 18 goals without reply. I fancy Chelsea to "win to nil" at 6/4.
Arsenal (4/6 with Sky Bet to win on Saturday) have shortened in the betting to win the title (6/1 from 8s) because of recent results and also the perception that they have by far the easiest run-in of the top three. I think they face their toughest league game left this season on Saturday at the Britannia Stadium against high-flying Stoke (9/2). If Arsenal win I think they are right back in the mix but defeat would end their hopes.
This is not a place Arsenal enjoy visiting and we know all about their weakness against sides that get in their face. Stoke are looking to make it five wins in a row against Arsene Wenger's side at home and Arsenal haven't won in the League at Stoke since they triumphed 1-0 in a top division game at the Victoria Ground in January 1982.
Bucks Fizz were number one in the charts at the time with "Land Of Make Believe". Is the Premier League title a land of make believe for Arsenal? We'll find out on Saturday.
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Sunday's Carling Cup Final - live and in high definition - is the first of NINE live Finals on Sky Sports this season.
