A silver springboard

Paul Merson says that if Arsenal win the Carling Cup on Sunday they will go on to win the Premier League.

Wenger must give his team a winning feeling, says Merse

Believe me, the Carling Cup Final is no second-rate competition and every Birmingham and Arsenal on the Wembley pitch will want to win it. A victory on Sunday could be so important for Arsenal Football Club. First of all, it will prove that this set of players is capable of winning things. I remember Jose Mourinho winning this competition with Chelsea in his first season - and look at what happened after that. I remember Sir Alex Ferguson dancing around on the pitch after winning it with Manchester United as well. George Graham started with this and went on to win loads of trophies. You have to get into the winning habit. Secondly, I believe if they win this game then they will win the Premier League this season. If they don't, then they won't. It will be too devastating for the players. They have set themselves up to win this competition right from the start and I think if they do, they will carry the momentum through to the league, where their next few fixtures are very kind. This is why Arsenal can win the league: Sunderland (h), West Brom (a), Blackburn (h), Blackpool (a), Liverpool (h), Bolton (h). Then they play Manchester United at home. I think Arsenal could be ahead of United by then, although a lot will depend on what United do at Stamford Bridge and Anfield. I don't think they're playing well, and because of that I can honestly see Arsenal winning the league. So Arsene Wenger must put his best team out because a win on Sunday will put them on course for bigger things later in the season. I can only see them winning two trophies because I think Barcelona will knock them out of Europe and anything could happen if they play United in the FA Cup. But I think the Premier League and the Carling Cup are realistic. That would be incredible for the Arsenal fans, although personally I think they'd settle for just the League Cup. Winning trophies is what it's all about.

Approach

As for Birmingham, I wasn't alive the last time they went to Wembley, so it will be interesting to see how they approach it. Theo Walcott is injured, Cesc Fabregas is injured and Robin van Persie will play, but how fit is he? There's a lot of things going in Birmingham's favour, so Alex McLeish has got some decisions to make. I'm sure they'll go 4-5-1 and keep it tight, but what I'd say is that they must make sure they don't leave Wembley with any regrets. I remember going to the 2000 FA Cup Final with Aston Villa and we lost to Chelsea with a whimper. We went there and set up for a draw, but it didn't work out and we lost 1-0. I remember coming off the pitch and thinking it was a waste of time. I'd rather have gone for it and lost 5-0 because if you lose, you lose. You've got to go to Wembley and give yourself a chance of winning. So Birmingham can't go there and hope to keep it tight for 90 minutes because Arsenal are too good at passing and moving. They can't try to pass the ball too much either because that will give them no chance. They might as well mix it up by getting the ball forward quickly to a big man. I'd play Nikola Zigic because Arsenal won't be comfortable dealing with him when the ball comes into the box. You could play Cameron Jerome on his own and rely on his pace, but I'd play both of them and keep a solid four in midfield. That will give them a chance of winning the game. But they'll need a lot of luck to get anything out of it - you only have to look at Arsenal's 3-0 win at St Andrews a few weeks ago for proof of that. PAUL'S PREDICTION
ARSENAL WIN - This won't be a walk in the park for Arsenal, anything but. I think it will be very tight for long periods, but I expect them to come out on top with a hard-fought 2-0. Then we'll see where they go from there. MERSON'S MAGIC MAN
ROGER JOHNSON - If he doesn't play well then it could be an easy afternoon for Arsenal. He had formed a brilliant partnership with Scott Dann and now he's injured so there's a lot of responsibility on Johnson's shoulders to hold the back four together.