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No ordinary Sunday

Image: McLeish: will he be down and out on Survival Sunday?

Merse predicts the Survival Sunday results - and sees Birmingham and Blackpool going down.

Merse makes his predictions - and expects a few surprises

I've been saying for a long time that the relegation battle could go down to goal difference - and with one game left I still think it will. Quite simply, this could go down to one goal. One flukey goal on Sunday afternoon could change everything. There's five teams involved and all of them could stay up, even if they lose. Ian Holloway will think that if his team only loses 1-0 at Old Trafford then they've got a great chance of survival - so how do you set your team up? From experience, I can tell you that you can't avoid the scores from the other grounds, even if you want to. The crowd will be cheering things and the players will sense what's happening. But you always get a wrong score coming through. When I was player-manager at Walsall we had to win our last game of the season and hope that Stoke beat Gillingham if we were to stay up. We were winning 3-2 and heard that Stoke had scored, but all of a sudden we realised it was 0-0. You have to cope with those things. I've rarely known so many teams to be involved. Blackburn are in 15th, but it's not impossible that they could go down. That's why it's so exciting for the neutrals I just hope nobody gets an absolute spanking in the first 45 minutes because we want it to go right until the end.

Manchester United v Blackpool
3pm, Sun, Sky Sports HD1

I'm doing this game for Soccer Special and while I'd like to see them survive, the chances of Blackpool winning at Old Trafford are very slim. Manchester United have won 17 and drawn one of their 18 home games this season - that's as good as anybody in world football - but Blackpool know a narrow defeat will still give them a great chance. There's been a lot of talk about Man United's team selection, but they've earned the right to pick any team they like. They've won the league and they need to keep their players fresh for the Champions League Final. If they didn't have another game to play then yes, they should pick their first team, but Sir Alex Ferguson doesn't want to risk his star men against a Blackpool team fighting for their lives. They're not a dirty team, but they will be steaming into tackles. United's players will be professional whatever happens, but I'm sure Blackpool's defenders will be happy if they don't have to mark Wayne Rooney or Javier Hernandez. Then again, Dimitar Berbatov might come into the side and he's trying to win the Golden Boot. Plus the reserve side wiped the floor with Schalke the other week. But if you cast your mind back three months, the reserves fell over the line in the FA Cup against Crawley, so I'm sure Holloway would like to see a few changes. This is the same scenario as West Ham a few years ago when nobody gave them a chance of winning at Old Trafford, but they did just that and they stayed up. Blackpool will need a lot of luck if they're to get anything out of it - and all of their players need to have the game of their lives. I do think they will finish above Birmingham, but I'm not sure if they will stay above Wigan. PAUL'S PREDICTION: I'll say Blackpool will get beaten by two goals - either 3-1 or 2-0 - it doesn't really matter either way. It could be a hard day for them because that still might not be enough.

Tottenham v Birmingham
4pm, Sun, Sky Sports HD2

Birmingham are the team on a slippery slope with glass slippers on. They've completely lost it. Five weeks ago, Birmingham weren't in this scrap. They didn't have the hardest fixtures in the world, but all of a sudden they've crumbled. They lost 2-0 to Fulham last week, but it could have been six and it's hard to explain. Before the season started, people wondered if they would score enough goals. When they had a solid defence with Scott Dann in it, that wasn't such an issue, but as soon as you start leaking goals then it's very rare you're going to win games. Blackpool let in three goals last week and still won their game 4-3. You wouldn't see Birmingham do that. Their problems are up front. They haven't scored enough goals and that could be the thing that sends them down. Forget goal difference, they could go down on goals scored. For me, they've got the hardest game of the lot on Sunday. Tottenham are one of those teams that can open up and put four or five past you - and they'll be playing with no fear after beating Liverpool last week. Harry Redknapp isn't desperate to finish fifth, but after winning last week you can be sure he won't pick any fringe players. It's their last game of the season in front of 40,000 fans so they'll go out and try to win. I expect Spurs to attack, so Birmingham will get opportunities at the other end, but I don't think they have the strikers to take them. PAUL'S PREDICTION: I'm going for a 3-0 win to Tottenham and that would see Birmingham finish below Blackpool. I think they're going down.

Stoke City v Wigan
4pm, Sun, Red Button and online

That last-minute Charles N'Zogbia goal against West Ham might just have kept Wigan in the Premier League. I was at the Emirates watching Arsenal v Aston Villa, but when that finished we watched the last five minutes of the Wigan game in the studio. I have never seen five minutes of football like it. It was end to end with 10 players in one box, then 10 players in the other and no midfield at all. Carlton Cole missed an absolute sitter and then Robert Green should have kept N'Zogbia's goal out, but it was an amazing finish. After 92 minutes of that game, Wigan were effectively relegated, but now they've got a free swing. It's like a cricketer being given not out when he's caught in the slips... you can bet he'll start swinging from the hip in his next over. Because of that goal, Wigan will be less nervous than the other teams. Birmingham will be petrified of slipping down, but Roberto Martinez has got nothing to lose. Stoke is a tough place to go, but their players will be jaded. They've just lost the FA Cup Final and they were well beaten at Man City in midweek. This is a team that needs to work their socks off to win any game and they can't breeze through like the sides at the top. They've hit a brick wall, so it wouldn't surprise me if Wigan went there and got a result. PAUL'S PREDICTION: I am predicting a 1-1 draw and if I'm right, that means Wigan will stay up ahead of Birmingham and Blackpool. I've been tipping them to go down since the season started, but all of a sudden I'm backing them to survive!

In the other key game, I think Wolves will beat Blackburn quite easily. They're the in-form team - they've won two and drawn one of their last three games - and that run has probably got them out of it. Even if they lose, I don't think Rovers will get sucked into it but nothing surprises me in football. If they get beaten at Wolves then it just needs a fluke result somewhere else for them to go. The only thing you can say for certain is that it's going to be nervous and tight and you'll probably see teams go into the last 10 minutes thinking that if they concede a goal they could go down. There will probably be a shocking result somewhere. I don't think all the results will go the way you'd expect. Something out of the ordinary will happen.