Norwich, Middlesbrough, Ipswich and Brentford - Peter Beagrie looks at the Championship play-offs
Friday 8 May 2015 15:33, UK
Sky Sports' Football League expert Peter Beagrie looks at the Championship sides still in with a shot of reaching the Premier League as part of his bumper play-off guide.
Norwich and Middlesbrough both narrowly missed out on automatic promotion to the top flight but now find Ipswich and Brentford standing in the way of an appearance at Wembley.
Beagrie assesses all four sides' chances - and picks the men to watch...
BRENTFORD V MIDDLESBROUGH
Bournemouth might have been a fairytale that had the ultimate happy ending but Brentford, for me, is the story that keeps on giving.
Uwe Rosler put the building blocks in place and brought Mark Warburton on board; Warburton was a good ally who was with the players on a daily basis and that made the transition seamless.
The players idolise the manager. It could have derailed their season when the story leaked out that he was to leave at the end of the term but instead they've had an unbelievable campaign.
Although they're massive underdogs - they've been beaten twice by Middlesbrough this season and haven't scored a goal against them - they've plenty in their locker.
They've got a good goalkeeper, a solid back four, the experience of Jonathan Douglas, a 17-goal man in Andre Gray and then a trio behind him who can really turn defence into attack. Alex Pritchard, Alan Judge and Jota bring creativity galore, quick and slick passing and plenty of movement.
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I can't praise Brentford highly enough for the way they've attacked the division and yet they're up against - like Norwich - one of the best squads in the league.
That brings expectancy but I think there's a sense of calm, a sense of realism at Middlesbrough at the moment.
They've got a very good manager and if they don't go up this season, they'll certainly be one of the favourites next time. Will Aitor Karanka still be there if they don't make it, though? That's the fear because he’s a top-drawer manager.
Boro's blueprint is based on a really solid defence but they've got gamechangers; Patrick Bamford has been brilliant again and he'll be hoping to make up for the disappointment of losing out in the final last year while on loan at Derby. He's shown a real maturity and he'll benefit enormously from the experience of being in different dressing rooms.
Albert Adomah is always one of my favourites - he carries the ball, takes the pressure off, leads the counter-attacks - and Grant Leadbitter has formed a formidable partnership with Adam Clayton, allowing Lee Tomlin to push on and play that archtypal No 10 role.
Pritchard versus Tomlin - that's the duel I'll be looking at over the two legs. Who dominates? Who can get on the ball?
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Middlesbrough will look to replicate their league gameplan but it’s different in the play-offs. Individuals will produce moments of magic in the final third but from a defensive point of view, you have to make the right decisions. The pressure’s on to get it right.
BEAGS' KEY MAN: Alex Pritchard and Patrick Bamford
OPTA STATS
Brentford lost both regular season meetings with Middlesbrough this season without scoring.The Bees haven’t
scored in any of their last six league matches against Middlesbrough (D1 L5).
Boro’s last defeat to Brentford in any competition was in the FA Cup in January 1964. They last lost a league match to them in December 1938.
This will be Brentford's first appearance in the Championship play-offs. They have made the final of the third tier playoffs on three of their seven attempts, losing each time.
Middlesbrough have appeared in the second division play-offs twice, beating Chelsea in the final in 1988 and losing in the semi-finals to Notts County in 1991.
Aitor Karanka’s side kept more clean sheets than any other Championship side this season (21).
SKY BET'S VIEW
Brentford are Sky Bet’s marginal favourites at 8/5 for Friday’s first leg, with Middlesbrough 13/8 for the victory while the draw is priced at 12/5. Aitor Karanka’s men are, however, shorter odds to make the final at 4/7 to the Bees’ odds of 5/4, while they are naturally also favoured in the outright at 2/1 to 4/1 for their hosts. Boro recorded a 1-0 victory when the pair met at Griffin Park and are 7/1 for a repeat of that scoreline, while they are 9/4 to keep yet another clean sheet. Andre Gray is considered the most likely candidate to prevent that from happening at 6/1 to score first, while Patrick Bamford is the 5/1 favourite to break the deadlock.
IPSWICH V NORWICH
You couldn't have scripted it.
Norwich are everybody's favourites for the play-offs but they were favourites for automatic promotion because of their stellar squad.
Alex Neil has re-energised, re-focused and re-organised them. Defensively, at times, they were all over the place and while there's no doubt they're talented in possession, he's made them work at being much better out of possession.
You have to be strong and resilient to give you a platform to build from in this league and that's what he's done, without any ego. Buy into it or get on your bike: that's his mantra and the players have responded.
The size and quality of their squad means Norwich also have that ability to change style and personnel during the game. Take Lewis Grabban, Gary Hooper, Cameron Jerome and then the likes of Jonny Howson, Bradley Johnson and Nathan Redmond behind them - all players who can create and score goals.
It's a quality squad but Ipswich are probably the hardest-working side in the division.
Mick McCarthy's worked on a string of cotton, never mind a shoestring but he's got a real mix of youth and experience. Teddy Bishop and Tyrone Mings have been fantastic, Cole Skuse has sacrificed himself by operating in front of the two centre-halves to make them harder to beat and Daryl Murphy has had the season of his life. Freddie Sears always had quality and now he's flourishing, too, alongside better players.
They're not a long-ball team either, Ipswich - that label really annoys me. How can you be a long-ball team when you've got the likes of Skuse, Bishop and Jay Tabb in midfield? They've scored some really well-crafted goals and - importantly - they've got players who make good decisions when the pressure is on.
Norwich might be favourites but underestimate Ipswich at your peril.
BEAGS' KEY MEN: Daryl Murphy and Wes Hoolahan
OPTA STATS
- Ipswich have lost each of their last four derbies against Norwich, their worst ever run against their rivals, and haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 10 home matches against Norwich.
- The Canaries have scored 12 times in their last four games against Ipswich, averaging three per game.
- Ipswich have won the Championship play-offs once (in 1999/2000). Their other six appearances have ended at the semi-final stage, last making the playoffs in 2004/05.
- Norwich have been in the Championship play-offs once before, losing on penalties to Birmingham in the 2001/02 final.
- Daryl Murphy has scored the opening goal more often than any other Championship player this season (11).
- Freddie Sears has scored five times in his last four at Portman Road.
SKY BET'S VIEW
Norwich are Sky Bet’s 11/8 favourites to win the first leg despite Ipswich (19/10) holding home advantage, while a stalemate is priced 23/10. The Tractor Boys are 8/5 outsiders to reach the play-off final, with their East Anglian rivals considered 15/8 favourites to reach the Premier League. Championship leading scorer Daryl Murphy is joined at the head of the first goalscorer betting by Cameron Jerome at 5/1, while the Canaries are 3/1 to beat their rivals without conceding for a third successive time.
Watch Brentford v Middlesbrough - Championship play-off semi-final first leg - live on Sky Sports 1 HD from 7.30pm on Friday and Ipswich v Norwich live on Sky Sports 1 HD from 12.15pm on Saturday.
