Sports Analysis Secrets

Beyond being two of the Premier League's greatest ever strikers, what is the link between Manchester United's Wayne Rooney and ex-Liverpool star Luis Suarez?

One of the more unlikely answers - but perhaps the most intriguing - is that both men produced their hottest run of form following the birth of their first sons.

Rooney responded to the arrival of new son Kai in November 2009 by finishing that season with 26 league goals, 33 in all, and being named PFA Player of the Year. Suarez's boy, Benjamin, came along in September 2013 and proud dad Luis (who, just days later, lifted his shirt to reveal a 'Welcome Benja' message after scoring in his first game back from a ban) went on to have the season of his life, banging in 31 league goals and winning awards galore.

The name given to the theory behind this surge in performance is 'The Nappy Factor' and is one of a host of fascinating mental factors discussed in a new book called 'Sports Analysis Secrets' by Keith Elliott.

Keith first wrote about the idea of the 'Nappy Factor' back in the 1990s, originally applying it to golfers and using it as a basis for when to back them to win, and since then there have been countless examples of sporting stars being energised by the patter of tiny feet.

Why does it happen? Keith has several theories and although the notion of having extra incentive to provide for new offspring may not apply to money-laden Premier League footballers, the other ideas certainly make sense for Rooney and Suarez - the wish to make the child proud, being given a wider sense of perspective and showing greater maturity.

The idea has had academic backing too with a study of 1,200 men over a 25-year period showing that salaries rise by nearly 5% every time they have a child, with the ‘fatherhood premium’ being far greater for a son than a daughter. Keith surmises that most men want a boy and sometimes the feeling of relief when one is born as the second or third child acts as a more powerful motivator than if it had been the first.

Suarez's incredible final campaign for Liverpool was actually inspired by another factor, writes Keith.

Chapter 9 in 'Sports Analysis Secrets' is 'The Comeback Trail' and explains how a sportsman/woman can bounce back from a poor spell to hit the heights again.

Many problems can create the background for a comeback - marriage and family woes, poor lifestyle choices, difficulties with coaches or agents, contract and disciplinary issures - but if these are overcome, careers can flourish again.

Suarez's stock was way down in the summer of 2013 as he served out a ban for biting Branislav Ivanovic and publically stated he wanted to leave Liverpool but as Keith explains: "Once he realised that Liverpool would not allow him to leave he accepted the situation as he wanted to play, and so he became a highly motivated player who owed the club, the manager and the fans so much for the way they had supported him through 'his difficulties’."

With the combined forces of 'The Nappy Factor' and 'The Comeback Trail', Suarez was ripe to have a massive season and so it proved.

The Uruguayan also had the assistance of a mental guru to help him through the dark times. Dr Steve Peters has had a hugely positive effect on the careers of many at Anfield such as Suarez and Steven Gerrard and also the now blooming Liverpool youngsters such as Raheem Sterling and Jordan Henderson.

'The importance of Mental skills' is actually the opening chapter of 'Sports Analysis Secrets' and highlights how the use of sports pyschologists has risen dramatically in both individual and team sports over the last 20 years.

Dave Brailsford and the Team Sky cyclists have championed the idea of 'marginal gains' and how small, 1%, improvements across the board add up to something that can make the difference between success and failure.

But Keith says the correct application of mental skills can be so powerful that it brings about a huge change: "If you take Victoria Pendleton, she was hopeless in Athens in 2004 and the reason, essentially, was mental skills. She worked with Steve Peters, it took a while, but four years later – gold medal. That’s not 1%."

More from Sports Analysis Secrets. Keith on....

Mental Let Down: Manchester United suffered 'Mental Let Down' after Sir Alex Ferguson left. So many players consciously or sub-consciously relaxed as the ‘pressure’ was off, the hairdryer was nowhere to be seen, and some of the senior players admitted later that they were not at all impressed by their new manager. Indeed after United had won at Newcastle on April 5th, Patrice Evra made a startling admission when he said ‘In the Champions league we have played good, we are confident and it looks like we are up for it more than in the league and cup. I know it’s not professional to say that, but it’s the truth’. Wow. What an admission! Put simply the players were targeting the ‘big’ games especially the European games on the ‘big stage’ .Even a hint of that attitude would in previous years have seen ‘the hairdryer in overdrive’ as ‘Sir’ would have gone apoplectic!

Landmark Birthdays: What have the careers of Kenny Dalglish, Brian Kidd,and Jamie Carragher got in common? The mental effects of becoming, say 29, 39 or 49 are real for so many people. There is huge social, peer, and personal pressure to re-examine, re-evaluate and re-view your life in a way that simply does not happen with any other birthday. So, was it just coincidence that: Dalglish quit as Liverpool boss at 39, just ten days away from the big four-0; Kidd when aged 49 years 7 months, in December 1998, made the decision to leave Manchester United and take up the new challenge of becoming Blackburn boss; Carragher announced his retirement from international football in 2007. The Liverpool defender even said: "As I approached thirty I lost interest in being the dependable reserve."

Funeral Factor: Death and bereavement can have a huge impact on performance. Before Bristol City played at home to Gillingham in March this year, they agreed that lifelong fan, father of three, 54 year-old Mark Saunders who had been given only days to live could address the team. He told the players they were privileged people and he reminded them of how their mums and dads had spent time on wet evenings taking them to train so they could follow their dreams…’you should remember how lucky you are’, and he stressed that it was time for them to give something back to the fans as they had been so poor this season. Mark’s brother Bill said afterwards that the team listened in stunned silence before, as Mark finished, there was spontaneous applause. I’m sure you can guess the rest….. Bristol City gave their best performance of the season winning 2-1 and so they moved out of the relegation places.

As well as the above, Keith also assesses to what extent deeply-held religious beliefs ('The God Squad') or 'coming out' ('The Gay Factor') can improve sporting performance. There are further chapters on Positive and Negative Mental Associations [PMAs + NMAs] and Inspiration by Comparison [IBC].

Keith's journey through the mental landscape is a fascinating read. He's expanded and refined his ideas over the years to provide numerous interesting insights to use when analysing any sports event. And for those who like a bet, these ideas can be a source of great profits. Indeed, Keith has run a successful sports tipping business since 1992 to prove the point.

* The book is now available on Amazon, priced at £7.99

* Keith has also created a new Sports betting service - Elliott Sports Analysis - to follow the launch of this new book.