Premier League predictions and best bets: Shock on the cards? Wolves tipped to beat Newcastle
Watch Wolves vs Newcastle & Aston Villa vs Everton both live on Sky Sports on Super Sunday
Saturday 17 January 2026 20:31, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League weekend.
Wolves vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
Wolves have quietly become a very difficult team to score against. The standout trend in their recent performances is defensive improvement, and it's backed up by serious underlying numbers.
Across their last six games, only Arsenal can better Wolves' expected goals against process of 0.99 per 90. That's elite territory. Wolves have faced Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United in that spell. So while the sample size is small, the quality of opposition gives those numbers real credibility.
We know Newcastle are a very different proposition away from St James' Park - and it's the attacking drop-off that's most striking. In their last 17 Premier League away games, they've scored more than 1.5 goals just three times.
On average, Newcastle are managing just 1.2 goals per away game in that run, struggling to generate sustained pressure or high-quality chances on their travels. The 6/5 with Sky Bet on them scoring under 1.5 goals again on the road looks a winner in waiting.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Aston Villa vs Everton, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
David Moyes' record away from home against top-level opposition is horrendous.
Going all the way back to his West Ham days, his record away at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City reads 20 losses from 21 games. It's a brutal return.
Those games tend to follow the same script too: sit deep, limit damage, slow the tempo and hope to stay in the contest for as long as possible. Now, this fixture doesn't technically fall into that bracket - but at what point do we start calling Aston Villa an elite home side?
Villa Park has become a fortress. They've won their last 11 home games, a run that includes statement victories over Arsenal and Manchester City. The intensity, structure and belief Unai Emery has created is right up there with the very best in the league.
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Moyes' away games are rarely chaotic, though. Since returning to Everton, just two of his 20 away matches have gone over 3.5 goals, with the average sitting at just 1.8 goals per 90. That's why combining a Villa win and under 3.5 goals makes sense at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Brighton vs Bournemouth, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Bournemouth's away games this season are bonkers. They're averaging 4.8 goals per game on the road. Nope, not a typo. Yes, almost five goals per game.
The markets are fully aligned for goals in this one though, which naturally pushes us toward the anytime goalscorer angle.
And who better to target than Kaoru Mitoma? The Japanese winger is starting to look like his old sparky, nightmare-for-defenders self. His movement, bursts in behind and instinct for goal are all back in evidence - as shown by his goal vs Manchester City.
History gives us even more confidence. Mitoma has scored five goals in his last six games against Bournemouth - that bit of a psychological edge over the opposition isn't factored into the prices at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | JONES KNOWS' BET BET: Karou Mitoma to score (5/2 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows' best bets...
- 1pt double on Antonie Semenyo & Karou Mitoma both to score (9/1 with Sky Bet) ❌
- 1pt double on over 2.5 goals in Leeds vs Fulham & Aston Villa to win and under 3.5 goals (7/2 with Sky Bet)❌
- 1pt on Tottenham to win to nil (2/1 with Sky Bet)❌
- 1pt on Gabriel to win +2 fouls (11/4 with Sky Bet)❌
