Ed Chamberlin doubts if Liverpool can rally to victory on Sunday and, in racing, names five jumpers to follow.
Who to back and who to avoid this weekend
Sky Sports' pundit Ed Chamberlin tips up the sporting action over the next week.
Football
I never thought I would spend shifts on
Sky Sports News talking about a beach ball!
It's been an extraordinary and depressing week for Liverpool fans. Four consecutive defeats for the first time since April 1987 (it's 56 years since they lost five in a row) has seen their odds drift to 12/1 with
Sky Bet to win the Premier League and 20/1 to triumph in the Champions League.
As you can imagine poor Phil Thompson took plenty of stick from Messrs Nicholas and Merson before, during and after Tuesday night's Gillette Soccer Special, frequently being asked if he was deflated, pumped up etc. etc!
As always 'Thomo' took the stick in great spirit and remained adamant that Liverpool could bounce back in the massive game on Sunday against Manchester United - one not to miss on
Sky Sports 1 & HD1 from 1pm - arguing that Rafa Benitez's side are at their best when written off, with their backs against the wall.
After their contrasting fortunes in the Champions League,
Sky Bet have seen plenty of money for Man Utd at 13/8 (now 6/4) with Liverpool pushed out to 15/8 and the draw at 9/4.
I'm sure Benitez will get a reaction from his players with a great atmosphere at Anfield and it's not often you can get Liverpool at 15/8 to win at home but I just can't back them without Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres in the side, and with their confidence so low.
Further, I'm told Sir Alex looks forward to this fixture more than any other in the Premier League and has a great record in it. United have won ten of the last 14 PL meetings, keeping eight clean sheets, and have won on five of their last seven PL visits to Anfield.
I do think it will be very tight though and will be having a small and speculative bet on Nemanja Vidic to exploit Liverpool's continued weakness against the set piece and score the game's first goal at 22/1 (13/2 to score in the 90 minutes).
I said last month that I thought Arsenal would get on a roll and shorten up from 7/1 to win the title.
They are now 4/1 with
Sky Bet and playing the best football of any of the title challengers. The problem Arsenal have is that they can play well and still lose, as they did on both occasions in Manchester, while when Man Utd play well they win. The Champions League might just suit Arsenal best this season (9/1 with
Sky Bet) as you'd almost fancy them more to win at the Nou Camp against Barcelona than Bolton at the Reebok.
Andrei Arshavin did us a favour again by scoring last week at 5/4 and I see no reason why he won't star again in an Arsenal win (8/15) at West Ham (11/2) on Sunday (live on
Sky Sports 1 & HD 1 from 4pm).
On Saturday I'm hoping Chelsea (1/5) can pick up three points at home to Blackburn (14/1) to keep our bet alive on them topping the table after the first ten games and then hope Liverpool can beat Man Utd on Sunday. They have a fine record against Blackburn, having won seven of the last eight meetings and not conceded in the last six in the Premier League. In fact Chelsea haven't conceded since Steven Reid scored the winner in May 2006 - that's 587 minutes of football! I fancy Chelsea to make a statement and repeat Wednesday night's 4-0 scoreline at 10/1.
Wigan (7/4) aren't the most predictable but I'll be backing them to draw (12/5) with Burnley (6/4) at Turf Moor. Six of the last eight meetings have been drawn and three of the last five games have been goalless (8/1)
Two in-form sides meet at Molineux with Wolves (12/5), who were very impressive at Goodison Park last weekend, against Aston Villa, who did so well to beat Chelsea. I think Villa will be too good and look a decent bet at 11/10, and thereby stretch their unbeaten run at Molineux to nine games in all competitions. Wolves haven't beaten Villa at home since the Bee Gees were number one in the charts with 'Night Fever'!
Horse Racing
Following on from my criticism of Champions Day last week, a crowd of 12,500 turned up to watch the finale to our domestic flat season, which clearly fails to catch the public's imagination. Compare that to the 48,700 people who descended on Longchamp to create the amazing atmosphere which climaxed with Sea The Stars' stunning victory in the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe, and the big crowd that will pack Santa Anita for the Breeders' Cup next weekend.
The BHA need to come up with a new idea to bring the season to a climax and my suggestion would be a card of Group One, championship-deciding races (Champions Stakes, QEII, Fillies' Mile, Dewhurst) and two big handicaps (International and Cesarewitch) at Ascot to replace their Festival of Racing in September with cheap entry (crucial), masses of entertainment for families during the day, including a fairground near the old paddock, and a supplementary payment to watch a top notch band after racing. This should appeal to every type of race-goer.
With the flat season limping to a conclusion, focus now turns to the jumpers with the season really clicking in to gear over the next seven days.
The Racing Post Ten-to-Follow may not be the most exciting this year as I fear everyone will have similar horses in their lists - I'm sure Big Bucks, Binocular, Cooldine, Denman, Dunguib, Hurricane Fly, Kauto Star, Master Minded, Mikael d'Haguenet and Punchestowns will be very popular.
Here are five 'darker' horses for you to follow this season:-
Alfie Sherrin (Trainer: Paul Nicholls) - went straight in to my notebook after a facile win at Fontwell. I expect him to develop in to the stable's number one hope for the RSA Chase.
Glencove Marina (Willie Mullins) - in a stable packed full of stars, it's worth remembering Mullins said "he was the most exciting horse I've had for years". Hopes are high he'll return from injury and scale the heights. I can't resist a small each-way bet for the Gold Cup at 50/1 with
Sky Bet.
Lidar (Alan King) - Unlucky not to win the bumper at Aintree's Grand National meeting. An exciting prospect for novice hurdles and with the perfect trainer.
Time For Rupert (Paul Webber) - as good looking a horse as there is in training. Will make a top chaser but there are decent hurdle races to be won with him first.
Tricky Trickster (Paul Nicholls) - Cheltenham Festival winner for Nigel Twiston-Davies. Can win decent staying chases for new yard en route to the Grand National.
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