Opta investigate the fallout of the latest round of top-flight action in Scotland.
Opta investigate the fallout of the latest round of top-flight action in Scotland.
The first phase of the Scottish Premier League is now complete with (nearly) all teams having played each other once, and with just three points separating the top three and just six separating the top five, this is looking to be one of the closest seasons ever.
In the last round of matches Celtic were held to a shock 3-3 draw by Falkirk, a side who had scored a total of only five goals in their 10 previous games, showing that in 2009/10 almost anything is possible.
In anticipation of another topsy-turvy set of fixtures, Opta investigate the fallout from the last set:
Bhoys Getting a Sinking Feeling
Despite Celtic currently occupying top spot in the Scottish Premier League, there are murmurs of discontent as to how the 2009/10 campaign is currently panning out at Parkhead.
Defenders of Tony Mowbray's regime would point to the league table as proof that there is no need to panic, however closer investigation reveals that this is one of the Glasgow side's poorest starts to a season ever in the SPL.
| Celtic after 11 SPL matches |
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| Season |
Won |
Drawn |
Lost |
For |
Against |
GD |
Points |
Final Place |
| 03/04 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
33 |
3 |
30 |
31 |
1 |
| 01/02 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
28 |
4 |
24 |
31 |
1 |
| 00/01 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
26 |
8 |
18 |
31 |
1 |
| 02/03 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
29 |
7 |
22 |
28 |
2 |
| 04/05 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
30 |
10 |
20 |
28 |
2 |
| 08/09 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
29 |
13 |
16 |
28 |
2 |
| 06/07 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
21 |
7 |
14 |
28 |
1 |
| 99/00 |
9 |
0 |
2 |
32 |
6 |
26 |
27 |
2 |
| 05/06 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
26 |
10 |
16 |
26 |
1 |
| 07/08 |
8 |
1 |
2 |
32 |
10 |
22 |
25 |
1 |
| 09/10 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
23 |
11 |
12 |
24 |
- |
| 98/99 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
18 |
11 |
7 |
17 |
2 |
|
Following their 3-3 draw with league strugglers Falkirk, Celtic have now dropped points in four of their opening 11 matches leaving them with 24 points - only in the inaugural season of the SPL have they ever accrued fewer points by this stage of the season, when they managed only 17 points.
That time around they ended the season six points adrift of Rangers, having surrendered the title with three games remaining.
The issue for the Hoops seems to be defensive - only last season had they conceded more goals after 11 games, than in the current campaign.
There is still something of a silver lining for Celtic though, in that only two seasons ago they had just one more point after 11 games than they do currently, but still went on to lift the title on the last day of the campaign.
However, it is worth noting that whilst the Bhoys have never won the competition with fewer points after 11 games than this season, Rangers have twice done it after notching up fewer points after 10 games this season (1998/99, 2004/05).
Jam Tarts Getting into a Sticky Mess after Going Ahead
For some teams, going ahead gives the players a massive boost and can then lead to more goals and a more composed performance after finding their rhythm.
This season however, this does not seem to be the case for Csaba Lazslo's Hearts side who seem unable to hold onto a lead this season.
| SPL 2009/10 - Points dropped after leading |
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| Team |
Games leading |
Then won |
Then drew |
Then lost |
Points Dropped |
| Hearts |
6 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
11 |
| Falkirk |
3 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
8 |
| St Johnstone |
5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
| St Mirren |
6 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
| Kilmarnock |
4 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
| Hamilton Academical |
4 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
4 |
| Aberdeen |
4 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
| Celtic |
8 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
| Dundee United |
6 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
| Hibernian |
7 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
| Rangers |
7 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
| Motherwell |
4 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
The Jam Tarts have taken the lead in six SPL matches this season - only the top three teams in the table have done this more often (Celtic, Hibernian and Rangers).
However, of a total possible 18 points that Hearts could have taken from these games, they have taken only seven, drawing once after leading and losing three of the matches in which they have taken the advantage.
The Edinburgh side went ahead against Celtic, Rangers and St Mirren but managed to lose each of these encounters 2-1.
This weekend they face St Johnstone, a side who, in their first meeting this season, took the lead before a goal from Goncalves and an 86th minute strike from David Obua gave Hearts the advantage, before an injury-time Martin Hardie goal stripped the Jambos of two points.
In all, the Saints have scored five goals in the final 15 minutes of SPL matches this season, a total only Hibs can match, meaning the fans at Tynecastle should be warned not to leave early if the home side are leading towards the end of the match.
This inability to capitalize on their advantage has been a large factor Hearts' poor start to the season - after 11 games they have just 10 points, their previous lowest total after 11 games in the SPL was 13 in 1998/99 and 2001/02.
If Csaba Lazslo is stop the rot, he will need to instil the confidence in his players not to panic once they are ahead in matches.
SPL Draw-ma
If the SPL table seems to be particularly congested this season, there is one obvious reason for this - the enormous number of draws that seem to be being played out in the Scottish Premier League this term and sides seem unable to win at home.
In fact a higher proportion of matches this season are ending in draws than at any other point in SPL history.
| SPL - Draws |
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| Season |
Matches played |
Draws |
% matches drawn |
| 2009/10 |
65 |
23 |
35% |
| 1998/99 |
180 |
51 |
28% |
| 2008/09 |
228 |
59 |
26% |
| 2005/06 |
228 |
57 |
25% |
| 2003/04 |
228 |
54 |
24% |
| 2006/07 |
228 |
54 |
24% |
| 1999/00 |
180 |
42 |
23% |
| 2000/01 |
228 |
51 |
22% |
| 2002/03 |
228 |
50 |
22% |
| 2001/02 |
228 |
49 |
21% |
| 2004/05 |
228 |
48 |
21% |
| 2007/08 |
228 |
48 |
21% |
| TOTAL |
2477 |
586 |
24% |
|
On average every fourth match in the SPL has ended in stalemate.
However this season has so far seen over a third of matches ending with the honours split, and bookmakers will have been taking advantage of the fact that there have been only 25 home wins compared to 23 draws and 17 away wins, and there have been 11 goalless draws - a more common result than any other.
In fact the SPL is seeing fewer home wins than any of the five top leagues in Europe where many sides can afford to fly to away matches and stay in five-star hotels overnight.
| SPL home wins compared to other European top flights |
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| League |
Matches played |
Home wins |
% matches ending in draws |
| Scotland |
65 |
23 |
35% |
| Germany |
108 |
43 |
40% |
| Italy |
120 |
55 |
46% |
| France |
119 |
56 |
47% |
| Spain |
100 |
51 |
51% |
| England |
117 |
63 |
54% |
|
For some reason, teams in the SPL in 2009/10 seem to be less able to claim all three points in front of their own fans than anywhere else in Europe, with only four teams (Rangers, Hibs, Celtic and Motherwell) having won more than two home matches this season.
Whatever the explanation for the strange tendency towards draws this season, neutral fans will certainly be enjoying the increased competition in the SPL.
