Jones Knows betting column: Jordan Ayew to score and a 3/1 Championship double
Serotonin-fest! A couple of winners last weekend got the column moving in the right direction
Last Updated: 28/09/19 5:40pm
Having a punt this weekend on the football? What betting opportunities are out there? If anyone knows, Jones Knows.
A common question on Google is: how to increase serotonin in the human brain without drugs?
This chemical - responsible for increasing mood and happiness - is one that has been pumping around my body this week. No need to head for Ibiza for a week of carnage, just back some winners. It's a real serotonin-fest.
Jones Knows got moving in the right direction last weekend with Crystal Palace vs Wolves going card crazy and the double copping a return thanks to impressive Hull doing the job at Luton. As I've found in seasons past, the early rounds of fixtures usually are tough to negotiate in terms of reliable results, so with teams now settling down into consistent form patterns there should be plenty of opportunities to get those serotonin levels through the roof over the next two months. I've got three bets to attack this week.
Remember, whatever I tip, I back. We're in this together, comrades. Do check out the Profit & Loss record for full clarity on the results. Current returns are: -11 pts.
Dim the lights, it's time to see if Jones Knows...
2pts Jones Knows double: Sheffield Wednesday (draw no bet) vs Middlesbrough and BTTS in Swansea vs Reading 3/1
It's been an eye-opening first 100 days in the Middlesbrough job for Jonathan Woodgate. A pre-season full of big talk and a change of football philosophy from the Tony Pulis era has yet to materialise. Boro's squad looks short on quality as the club has had to cut its cloth following an inability to bounce straight back up helped funded by Premier League parachute payments. Woodgate's men were soundly beaten at Cardiff last weekend, failing to register a shot on target. Hopes of a top-six push with this squad and this manager look very unlikely, based on that performance.
Former boss Garry Monk returns to the Riverside this weekend with Sheffield Wednesday after a messy break up with Boro that still has legal battles going on.
Along with being fuelled by a desire to put one over his former employees, Monk will rock up with a capable squad that were good value for their late salvo against highly-rated Fulham last weekend despite having just 29 per cent of the ball.
Wednesday recorded five shots on target despite their lowly possession count - the most Fulham have allowed an opposition in any of their Sky Bet Championship games this season. That level of performance from Wednesday bodes well for their trip to face pretty limited opposition this weekend. I'm expecting an away win, but will play the safety net of the draw no bet market meaning the bet will be void if it ends a draw.
Double Monk's men up with both teams to score when Reading travel to Swansea. Sky Bet have boosted to double from 23/10 to 3/1 so please punish their generosity.
The Royals play with an attacking mentality where players are given licence to get forward - they've created 78 chances from open play this season, only Leeds, West Brom and QPR have created more. This philosophy of being brave on the counter-attack should result in an open affair against possession-focused Swansea, who are a force when teams come at them as seen when dispatching Leeds and QPR earlier this season. I'm expecting an open game, full of space, goalscoring chances and goalkeepers beaten at both ends.
Sexy, but flimsy through the middle. That's the best way to describe Norwich City's opening show in the Premier League.
Defensively, the Canaries are oh so vulnerable, especially at the heart of their defence. Opposition centre-forwards are finding opportunities easy to come by. In their last four Premier League fixtures, Norwich, who are the walking wounded with four first-team defensive options on the sidelines, have allowed Tammy Abraham, Sergio Aguero, Sebastien Haller and Chris Wood to score.
This angle makes the 5/1 about Palace's main striker Jordan Ayew opening the scoring very appealing. He is without doubt Palace's main goal threat at home despite the markets pricing up Wilfried Zaha as a joint-favourite. Zaha can win games on his own for Palace on the road where more space is available but his goalscoring record at Selhurst Park is quite appalling for a player with a reported £80m tag price - he's scored just once there in his last 21 games.
Meanwhile, Ayew looks sharper this season in the lone striker role, scoring at Manchester United and in the 1-0 home victory over Aston Villa. In a predicted low-scoring game - there's only been three goals seen in the Premier League at Selhurst this season and Norwich have bagged just one goal on the road - Ayew rates as by far the most likely first scorer at a juicy price.