Jones Knows betting column: Keep it simple with Jamie Vardy against awful Arsenal
The money is down on Leicester City, Birmingham and QPR this weekend
Last Updated: 09/11/19 10:16am
What betting opportunities are out there? If anyone knows, Jones Knows.
Love yourself. That's what they say, isn't it? How can you be loved if you can't love yourself?
Well, sometimes it's OK to hate yourself. We all make glaring errors in life.
Like putting the latest iPhone you've bought on 'aeroplane mode' - and throwing it off a tall building, as your mate convinced you the new model included the technology to make a phone fly.
Or, perhaps making a strong case for Hull City to beat Fulham last weekend at 5/1, but deciding to be greedy and advising followers to back the 7/1 for both teams to score - and Hull win to nil.
Don't worry, only one of those situations occurred for Jones Knows.
Seeing Hull run out comfortable 3-0 winners was as tough to watch as that Deliveroo advert that is currently plastered across every TV channel.
In frustrating punting times like these, it's key to stay focused on the process. With the Hull bet, the logic was spot on but a mix of greed to find a bigger price and slightly poor decision-making has cost us a chance to bang in a massive winner.
Promising returns are on the horizon. Patience will be rewarded soon. Then the love-in will begin.
Remember, whatever I tip, I back. We're in this together, comrades. Do check out the Profit & Loss record for full clarity on the results. Current returns are: -9 pts.
Dim the lights, it's time to see if Jones Knows...
Scott Parker could have done with an easier fixture than a trip to Birmingham after calling for a reaction from his Fulham players. The defeat at home to Hull means the west Londoners have won just one of their last five, and the heat is growing on the rookie boss. Birmingham have taken 16 points at St Andrew's this season, including winning the last three. Only Preston and Cardiff have picked up more points at home this season.
Pep Clotet has put together an attack-minded team, capable of providing a static Fulham back four with plenty of problems, in similar fashion to Hull last weekend. Only Swansea and West Brom have had more shots on target from inside the box at home than Birmingham this season. I'm not sure why the markets have Fulham as favourites in this one - the 2/1 for a home win seems generous.
Like Parker, another man under pressure at the moment is Jonathan Woodgate at Middlesbrough.
Boro are without a win in eight Sky Bet Championship games, failing to score in each of the last four. They've not gone nine league games without a win outside the top-flight since 1989. Woodgate has yet to really stamp a style of play in his first managerial role, something that can't be directed at Mark Warburton at QPR.
He has got them playing some sexy stuff at Loftus Road and their record against relegation-threatened teams is impressive. Wigan, Millwall, Blackburn Rovers and Luton have all been swatted away by the Rs this season. Middlesbrough look likely to go the same way.
1pt on Jamie Vardy to score first and Leicester to win 1-0 or 2-0 (Leicester vs Arsenal, Saturday, live on Sky Sports at 5:30)
Sometimes the glaringly obvious is hard to pass up. It's easy to over-complicate analysis when searching for value in the market but this bet sticks out like a sore thumb this weekend.
Leicester are trading around Evens to beat Arsenal on Saturday night, a price that will be generating lots of interest in punting circles.
On what we've seen so far this season, Leicester look absolute good things to cause more misery for Unai Emery, whose Arsenal side are regressing with every game. The lack of cohesion, organisation and confidence in their approach makes them very easy to oppose at the King Power Stadium.
Arsenal's form and recent performance data make for pretty grim reading as it is, but if you just concentrate on their away results, it dips a remarkably depressing level for the Gunners faithful. Their patterns of play in the final third are nowhere near the levels required. On the road, Emery's side have only registered 43 shots on goal - the third lowest of any team in the Premier League.
Meanwhile, Brendan Rodgers is building an astute and tactically shrewd side that is now odds-on to finish in the top-four after their comfortable win at Crystal Palace last weekend. On that showing, they certainly look capable of sustaining these high levels. It's a style of play that will strangle Arsenal - as was seen in the corresponding fixture last season when Leicester bossed the game and comfortably registered a 3-0 victory.
'Arsenal in trouble'
Charlie Nicholas believes his former club Arsenal could suffer a heavy beating when they face Leicester.
Some may accuse me here of once again being greedy by going fishing for bigger prices but combining a Leicester win, Jamie Vardy to score and a Leicester clean sheet is certainly worth considering, especially at the prices available.
Vardy - the definition of a streaky player in front of goal - has been a key man for Leicester and he has the tools to seriously take advantage of Arsenal's lack of positional awareness and pace at the back. He has eight goals in his last eight games against the Gunners.
If you build the bet on the scorecast section on Sky Bet, you can access odds of 19/1 for a 1-0 Leicester win with Vardy notching first, and 25/1 on the same scorer but a 2-0 final score. I'll be backing both outcomes.
Fancy winning £250,000?
Yes. You can. It's winnable. Four players have won the jackpot this season already from just 17 rounds of Super 6. And remember, it's free to play!