Match highlights of every Premier League game this season to be shown on the Sky Sports website and app; watch Newcastle vs Leicester live on Sky Sports
Sunday 17 April 2022 17:02, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows previews the weekend as he unleashes his tips, analysis and predictions on the Premier League games.
Dan Burn is a friend of mine when it comes to overpriced centre-backs across a variety of markets. He's not quite on my dream centre-back dinner party list just yet (Shane Duffy, Harry Maguire, Gareth McAuley, Yerry Mina and Craig Dawson if you are asking) but that may change if he delivers this weekend.
The Geordie boy has been sensational since joining from Brighton but what would put the cherry on the cake would be a goal at St James' Park - every fan's dream. I think Sunday could be the day for Burn up against this Leicester defence that have improved with the return of Jonny Evans and Wesley Fofana but still do not convince me when defending set pieces. The Foxes have conceded 16 Premier League goals from set pieces (excluding penalties) this season - the joint-most with Leeds.
Good quality chances have fallen Burn's way in his nine starts for Newcastle which have equated to an expected goals figure of 0.73. Should the tallest player in the Premier League who has scored a header already this season and plays for a team that have scored 13 of their 34 goals this season from set pieces, really be 25/1 to score another? I would argue no. He's the value play to score a header in a tight affair.
If this was a run chase, Burnley have fallen way behind on their required run rate. They can no longer block and push for singles. It's time for the manager-less Clarets to swing for the boundaries if they are to catch Everton and Leeds above them.
Draws will no longer do. They must add to their pathetic tally of just four wins - and this game will be seen as an opportunity to do so with West Ham's Europa League commitments causing issues with their Premier League form.
This change of mentality to playing "must win" football in the last two matches has seen a positive effect on Burnley's attacking metrics - something that will continue to spike over the next few weeks. Games have been much more open affairs with their past two games seeing five goals scored and a total expected goals figure of 8.71 when collating both teams.
Travelling to face a West Ham side whose games at the London Stadium average 3.13 goals and have seen a both teams to score 75 per cent of the time this season, does give this game the look of a goals-heavy one. The markets have the goal line around 2.5 goals which I think is too low. This means we must attack the overs with confidence at Evens.
I also want to throw in Burnley's corner count into the mix. They won nine against Everton and seven in their defeat to Norwich - another sign their attacking intent has gone up a notch. Only Aston Villa and Southampton have won more corners in the Premier League since March 1 than Burnley and that included a fixture with Manchester City where they won just one. Take that game out and they are averaging 7.2 corners per 90 minutes.
Therefore, Sky Bet's lines on Burnley corners are worth backing. Those that like thumping into short prices should take a look at Burnley to win four corners at 4/6 with Sky Bet as West Ham have conceded at least four corners in their nine Premier League games but I am pushing the boat out a little further by attacking the six or more corner line at a gigantic 3/1 with Sky Bet.