With exclusive insight from his managers past and present, we look at the stats that show why Brennan Johnson is key to Nottingham Forest’s prospects. He tops two Premier League metrics – one is a reason for excitement, the other is a cause for concern…
Friday 24 March 2023 13:15, UK
Brennan Johnson’s importance to Nottingham Forest is easy to quantify. He has five goals and two assists in his last 10 games – meaning that he has been directly involved in winning 11 of the 12 Premier League points that Forest have picked up in that time.
The goal that started that run, scored by Taiwo Awoniyi in the 1-0 win at Southampton, showed Johnson at his best. He intercepted the ball to win back possession, ran with it from the halfway line before setting up his team-mates to score from close range.
Johnson's unique qualities are illustrated by the data that shows his average ball-carrying distance this season to be more than 23 metres. He tops this metric in the Premier League this season, clear of Marcus Rashford among players with more than 100 carries.
Putting that to Forest boss Steve Cooper, he tells Sky Sports: "He is certainly good at it, ball-carrying. We should look at that stat in a positive way because it does show that he is being productive in terms of territory and getting up the pitch. That is one of his qualities."
The tactical significance of it for Forest should not be underestimated, as Johnson's former manager Michael Appleton explains. Appleton took him on loan at Lincoln City, accelerating his development by utilising him in four different positions.
Then, as now, it was pace that set him apart.
Johnson has one of the highest average maximum sustained speeds in the Premier League this season. "He can cope with his back to goal but he is devastating running in behind. He causes so many problems for opponents," Appleton tells Sky Sports.
Given the scale of the challenge facing Forest this season, maintaining that threat on the counter-attack has been imperative. "It is massive for them," says Appleton. "There are certain players that managers look for to help the balance of the team and he is one of those players who can get you up the pitch when under the cosh. It relieves the pressure.
"Because of the quality of the teams in the Premier League, Forest are going to find themselves defending for periods in a low block and being that bit deeper.
"Having those players who can play on the transition and get you 40 or 50 yards up the pitch by themselves rather than needing clever combination play with others is huge.
"He has the ability to pick the ball up on the edge of his own box and within a few seconds leave the opposition defending for their lives in their half."
As a result, it impacts the approach of the opponent.
"If you are dominating the ball in the opposition half and enjoying that, the threat of Brennan will keep your attention. He is not the kind of player you can leave one on one with 50 yards of pitch behind you. He tends to occupy two players.
"That alone gives you an opportunity to get out even when you do not use him. That is the biggest compliment. Even when Brennan is not the outlet, because he is occupying two players, it is allowing them to get up the pitch in other areas."
That part of it has been more difficult for Forest this season. The speed of Johnson's breakaways, and their solitary nature, has a consequence - he can find himself isolated upon the completion of his runs. Interestingly, that is also shown by the data.
With the help of tracking data, we can now see the total number of passing options that are available to a player when making a pass. Team-mates are considered passing options if the expected completion rate of that pass is at least 80 per cent.
This data tells us that Johnson has the fewest average number of options available to receive a pass when he is in possession of any Premier League player.
Cooper accepts this is something that he hopes to change.
"It is an evolution that we want to make as a team. There are things we are trying to build and we have to accept that we have to do things a certain way. Over the course of time, I would like us to improve these aspects.
"What we are trying to do with Brennan and Morgan [Gibbs-White] and all the players is to use their assets to become productive on the pitch, which is goals, assists, chances created."
In the meantime, Johnson's mentality will help. He will keep running.
"He is such a fantastic kid, it will not bother him," adds Appleton.
"That is why he is so crucial to Forest. I have worked with forward players who can get disinterested and disillusioned if they have not had the right service but Brennan has a fantastic attitude to the game. He is always a willing runner."
It is that attitude that encourages Cooper to believe that Johnson is still on an "upward curve" - and Appleton is keen to see how far he can go.
"The amount of scouts, heads of recruitment and directors of football who have wanted to get a reference," he says. "For him to progress the way he has done since Lincoln, I am obviously delighted for him because he deserves it.
"Last season was huge for him. To be part of that success from day one was a lot of responsibility on his shoulders. He has taken on even more responsibility this season and now he is showing to everyone that he can do it in the Premier League."
