Brexit could lead to aggressive Premier League spending, says football finance expert
Tuesday 28 June 2016 14:42, UK
The United Kingdom's exit from the European Union could trigger an aggressive summer of Premier League spending and increased transfer fees, according to football finance expert Esteve Calzada.
The amount British clubs will pay to buy players from abroad should increase by 10 per cent because of the drop in value of the pound against the Euro by that margin.
And there could be a flurry of purchasing when the transfer window reopens on July 1 as clubs look to protect themselves against any forthcoming changes in regulations as a result of Britain's exit from the EU.
Last season 432 European players, including Dimitri Payet at West Ham and Anthony Martial at Manchester United, were registered to play in the Premier League. Those players are unlikely to have to leave following the vote, but new players will not have an automatic right to live and work in the UK.
Calzada believes Premier League clubs will negotiate a separate trade agreement to exclude themselves from the current ruling that non-EU players must have represented their national side for a set number of games, a rule which could now be extended to all non-British footballers.
"It could have a massive impact, although it is still early to say," said Calzada, the former chief marketing and commercial officer at Barcelona. "The pound is down 10 per cent against the Euro so the immediate consequence is that English clubs will have to pay more.
"Straight away there is a 10 per cent increase in transfer costs and also the players will see it as another form of inflation. I participated in a couple of negotiations last week and the player wanted to secure their salary in Euros because of the uncertainty, which doesn't help.
"It remains to be seen what will happen in terms of regulation; it could be very significant for the Premier League because they have been the driving force in European transfers, they account for 50 per cent of them.
"If you take it to the extreme, you will have players who won't be eligible to play here and it therefore becomes less attractive as a league. If you want to be even more pessimistic, you could say the TV rights value will go down because you're not able to bring in top talent.
"My guess is the Premier League will adapt and come up with regulations to prevent that scenario from happening."
And he added: "As the consequences are not yet known, English teams may be more aggressive this summer in terms of signing players.
"They may think because it will be harder to sign players in the future, they will get them now, which is what happened when Barcelona were banned from buying players."
But while the post-EU referendum changes will impact the Premier League transfer market, Calzada feels Euro 2016 will have less of an influence on prices because clubs have already done most of their background work on potential targets over the course of the season.
"A tournament will always have an influence but it is less and less relevant because, as opposed to what has happened in the past, scouts can easily watch players over the course of a season rather than just in the big tournament.
"That's because they have better resources; they can download the videos of any game which happens anywhere in the world.
"What is most likely is clubs will already have all the information on a player they like, then they will just wait for the tournament as the final place to make a decision.
"Players who have had a good season in a top team won't see their value increase that much. (Dimitri) Payet is a good example of that. His value has increased over the season and he is just getting that confirmed with a good tournament.
"The big chunk of his value increase took place over the season, this is just a small part of it. Less well known players will have big value increases at a tournament, such as the Northern Ireland goalkeeper (Michael McGovern).
"He has performed consistently well in every game and all of a sudden he's in the shop window."
