Premier League best bets: Back Erling Haaland, Matheus Cunha, Cristian Romero to score this weekend
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Friday 25 August 2023 23:40, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows has some big-price goalscorer selections to attack, including a creative 11/2 shot available on Erling Haaland at Sheffield United.
How did we get on last weekend?
If you are a first-time reader or dabbler at this party this season, you will have already realised losing runs are a common theme. We play at inflated bigger prices where although the odds are in our favour, finding those winners can be a once, twice or three times a season job. There will be bad beats. There will be head scratching moments of: how did we not profit from such a value-soaked angle.
Three more points were added to the bookmakers' satchels last weekend but there was enough to be positive to feel we were not too far away. The 4/1 double (2pts) on BTTS, Over 2.5 goals in Wolves vs Brighton was on course for a full return but Ben Chilwell scuffed both of his attempts at goal for Chelsea where we needed him for a shot on target. He was also hooked on 60 minutes which was a weird one from Mauricio Pochettino, who had installed him as captain and seemingly likes the width and creativity he produced. That blank from Chilwell also meant our 20/1 first goalscorer investment went south with no return.
A winner or two is close though. I can smell it.
P+L = -6
1pt on Cristian Romero to score vs Bournemouth (18/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
Bournemouth boss Andoni Iraola must have skipped the part of the pre-season dossier where there was a big red ring around their defensive set piece record last season. Bournemouth conceded 21 goals from set pieces (excluding penalties) last season - the most of any team. They are crying out for some help. But the early signs under Iraola are not positive.
Iraola's Rayo Vallecano side also conceded 23 goals from corners and free-kicks in his last two seasons in charge of the club - again, the worst record of any side. This suggests to me he does not spend too much time worrying about being organised from defensive set pieces situations - and Liverpool exposed that on Saturday.
Virgil van Dijk hit a post and headed two other efforts wide while Ibrahim Konate also posted an effort at goal. It took Bournemouth's tally to 1.04 worth of expected goals already conceded from set piece situations this season - the highest in the Premier League.
How do we profit then? Cristian Romero that's how. Already with a goal to his name this season and a shot at goal in both appearances, Romero is an aggressive attacker of a set piece and looks overpriced in an array of markets when factoring in the Cherries' obvious weakness. The Evens with Sky Bet on offer for Romero to have one or more shots looks good for the Jones Knows treble and the outright anytime scorer price at 18/1 needs backing.
1pt on Matheus Cunha to score in a Wolves win at Everton (7/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
Wolves, who somehow are both pointless and goalless after two respectable performances based on the key data, have racked up an impressive 4.48 worth of expected goals in their two matches - the fourth highest of any side.
Matheus Cunha has been responsible for 1.02 of that bulky figure as he's started the season in destructive form in the heart of the Wolves frontline. He's made 18 runs into the opposition box, the fourth highest of any player in the league, whilst recording an impressive tally of four progressive carries that ended in a chance being created. Only Phil Foden has posted more. I'd be surprised if he isn't a major factor in the result when they face Everton. He can score in an away win.
1pt on Erling Haaland to score a header vs Sheffield United (6/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
Two games played, three centre forwards have scored against Sheffield United - all from crosses into the box. And here comes Erling Haaland, who is as short as 2/5 with Sky Bet to score and just 7/1 to bag what would be his seventh hat-trick for Manchester City.
There is a smarter way, involving a bulkier price, to support Haaland in this encounter though.
Of Haaland's 36 Premier League goals last season, seven of them came via headers. He is a terrific finisher aerially - hardly surprising when you stand over six feet tall and are being served up so much delightful service from some of the world's best.
Man City are no longer the perfect passing goal gurus. They like to mix it by playing more direct into the box where possible. A no-brainer really when you consider the monster in the middle.
Haaland is 6/1 to score a header. Use your head. Back it.
1pt treble on: Romero to have one or more shots, Jarrod Bowen to have a shot on target & Wolves to win or draw vs Everton (11/2 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
I'm really keen on West Ham's counter-attacking king Jarrod Bowen to find space away at Brighton in transitions so I wanted to get the 10/11 with Sky Bet for him to have at least a shot on target on my side. It seems sensible to combine him with two other value-soaked angles - Romero to have at least one shot and Wolves to avoid defeat - to rustle up a 11/2 treble.
