Premier League predictions and best bets: Will Liverpool's stodgy performances come to bite them at Burnley?

Our football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows is back to preview Super Sunday as Liverpool travel to Burnley and Man City host Man Utd.

Burnley vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

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These newly-promoted teams at home are going to be bigger forces to be reckoned with than last season. Ipswich, Southampton and Leicester only won five home games between them while the new boys are already at four wins combined from just five matches.

Burnley at Turf Moor can make this scrappy and fiddly for Liverpool. Scott Parker's team are unbeaten in their last 24 home league games and although that run is likely to end here, there will be positive vibes with the players likely to feed off the fact they're very used to winning games in front of their own supporters.

Despite Liverpool's perfect start results-wise, it has been clear they've struggled to find their flow and that stodge may just continue for another week due to the international break limiting time on the training pitch for Arne Slot. The Reds beat Leicester, Wolves and Southampton twice across all competitions by a one-goal margin last season on the road. It's 11/4 with Sky Bet to happen again at Turf Moor.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

Manchester City vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports

• Sky Sports to show 215 live PL games from this season
• Got Sky? Watch Premier League games LIVE on your phone📱
• Not got Sky? Get Sky Sports or stream with no contract on NOW📺

The Premier League might be back on your screen, and you're ready to go goals galore with your punting after sitting through England vs Andorra for the 32,000th time but the trends suggest this is a time in the calendar where goals drop like a stone.

Players have been flying halfway across the globe and managers have had barely a day or two with their full squads.

The result? Slower starts, lower intensity, fewer chances.

Across the last two seasons, this matchday immediately after the international break, the average goals per game sits at a lowly 2.35 which is way down on the overall average of 3.1 per game during those two seasons.

Also, of the last 40 Premier League games played immediately after the first international break, 20 of them have been 0-0 at the break and the average first half goals scored is 0.9 per game.

Matches can be cagey and this one fits the bill where the market is overplaying the chances of goals. That makes the under 2.5 line at 13/8 with Sky Bet a nice edge to attack in a fixture which has only averaged 2.6 goals per game across the last 10.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (13/8 with Sky Bet)

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Jones Knows' Best Bet:

• 1pt double on: Over 2.5 goals in Everton vs Aston Villa and under 2.5 goals in Man City vs Man Utd (4/1 with Sky Bet)

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