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Premier League relegation battle: Newcastle, Sunderland, Norwich City and Aston Villa run-ins analysed

Premier League relegation run-in

As many as six teams are in danger of relegation from the Premier League as the business end of the season approaches.

Aston Villa, Newcastle United, Sunderland and Norwich City are all in a bottom four that is currently three points adrift from the rest of the division, but Swansea City and Crystal Palace have not secured their top-flight status yet.

We take a closer look at the relegation run-in and analyse who has the best chance of staying up…

The bottom six

Position Team Games played Goal difference Points
15 Swansea 32 -9 37
16 Crystal Palace 31 -8 34
17 Norwich 32 -22 31
18 Sunderland 31 -19 27
19 Newcastle 31 -27 25
20 Aston Villa 32 -40 16

Remaining fixtures

On paper, it appears that Palace have the hardest run-in of the bottom six. Of their eight remaining games, three are against teams in the current top six and all of those are away from home.

Villa's fixture list also doesn't look too kind. Having been put to the sword by a resurgent Chelsea side, they have to play two of the current top six in their remaining six games, with relegation all but a certainty.

Norwich, meanwhile, will need to get as many points on the board as early as possible, because their final three games are away to Arsenal, at home to Manchester United and at Everton. They can't afford to leave it to the last minute.

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Alex Neil Manager of Norwich City looks on prior to the Barclays Premier League match between A.F.C. Bournemouth and Norwich City
Image: Alex Neil's side face Arsenal, Manchester United and Everton in their final three fixtures

Form

Villa have the worst form in the division at present and, unless they can turn it around and go on the sort of run Nigel Pearson's Leicester City produced last season, their chances of staying up are virtually nil. 

Bottom six form

Team Last six games (Most recent last)
Swansea L W W L W D
Crystal Palace L L D L L D
Norwich L L L D W W
Sunderland W L D D D D
Newcastle L L L L D L
Aston Villa L L L L L L

Palace's form is not much better, but can at least take solace from the fact that their points total was handsomely bolstered by good results in the first half of the season.

Meanwhile, Norwich's dramatic 3-2 victory over relegation rivals Newcastle on Saturday, a result which saw Alex Neil's side move four points clear of the drop zone, saw the Canaries claim back-to-back victories for only the second time this season.

Swansea strengthened their survival bid by fighting back from two goals down to snatch a point at Stoke on Saturday. The surprise turnaround added to their recent upturn in form under Francesco Guidolin, which has also seen the Swans claim a shock victory at title-chasing Arsenal.

Total games left

Newcastle and Sunderland have a game in hand on Norwich and Villa, which is an advantage in terms of the potential points to be gained, but could also be detrimental given the added fixture congestion it creates.

Palace could have nine matches still to play this season if they beat Watford in the semi-finals of the FA Cup.

Potential remaining games (including FA Cup)

Team Remaining games
Swansea 6
Crystal Palace 9
Norwich 6
Sunderland 7
Newcastle 7
Aston Villa 6
Federico Fernandez (right) celebrates scoring Swansea's winning goal against Aston Villa
Image: Swansea have won three of their last four league matches

Injuries

The injury picture looks particularly grim for Newcastle and Villa, who both have a number of players sidelined. Andros Townsend, Chancel Mbemba, Cheik Tiote and Papiss Cisse may have recently returned from injury, but Fabricio Coloccini, Massadio Haidara and, more recently Rob Eliot, have added to their lengthy injury list.

Current injuries

Team Number of injuries (According to premierleague.com)
Swansea 1
Crystal Palace 5
Norwich 2
Sunderland 2
Newcastle 8
Aston Villa 3

Palace are also struggling, but not as badly. James McArthur is out for the rest of the season, but most of their problems come further up the pitch with Connor Wickham, Emmanuel Adebayor and Marouane Chamakh on the sidelines.

Norwich currently have to do without captain Russell Martin and midfielder Alexander Tettey, although their cause was aided by Nathan Redmond shaking off a knock to feature in Saturday's victory over Newcastle. 

Sunderland are not struggling too badly with injuries, while Swansea have only forward Andre Ayew out in the short term.

Conclusions

Villa are 15 points from safety; their form is terrible; they still have to play Arsenal and United; and ultimately, it will be a huge shock if they stay up.

Gabby Agbonlahor and Ashley Westwood of Aston Villa show their frustration after Everton's third goal
Image: Aston Villa need a huge turn in form to stand any chance of survival

Newcastle's form is not much better, but they at least are in sight of safety. However, Rafa Benitez's side need to start winning games soon if they want to avoid being marooned with Villa.

Norwich's win at against the Magpies has given them hope of beating the drop. However, Sunderland will be right on their coattails if they win their game in hand.

Sunderland have picked up seven points from the last six games, which isn't a great haul, but it's more than the teams around them have managed.

And if they can keep that steady flow going, it may be enough to stay up, while they're also helped by arguably the easiest run-in.

Who do you think has the toughest run-in? Let us know using the message boards or by tweeting @SkyFootball