Jones Knows is back with his Premier League predictions and betting angles and is backing Chelsea to beat Newcastle, but expects the visitors give the Blues a scare...
Chelsea vs Newcastle, Monday 8pm, live on Monday Night Football
Newcastle and Thomas Tuchel had a big sliding doors moment in 2015. Tuchel - then manager of Mainz - was linked with the vacant Newcastle job in January 2015.
But the decision-makers decided to appoint John Carver until end of season. Borussia Dortmund came calling for Tuchel, and the rest is history.
Six years later and Tuchel now faces Newcastle as Chelsea boss with a squad packed with quality and one that may have title ambitions this time next season. I am yet to be fully convinced though as they have yet to face an attack capable of asking them severe questions. If Callum Wilson was fit for Newcastle, I would probably have had a swing at the 12/1 for an away win. Chelsea should not be touched at 1/5 with Sky Bet but the match result and correct score market represent no strong betting angles in this one as I'm not convinced Newcastle will be ruthless enough with their finishing without Wilson.
I certainly think they will give Chelsea a scare though playing their new-found brave pressing game that allows their defence to push up the pitch.
Since switching to this diamond-like formation halfway through their defeat to Leeds with Miguel Almiron playing in the pocket, Newcastle are averaging nearly two goals a game and 14 shots a game. This makes the 5/4 for them to have nine or more shots at 5/4 very interesting and even the 12 or shots line at 11/2 should be given consideration.
Another betting angle to consider is Cesar Azpilicueta to pick up a booking. He has been an ever-present for Tuchel in the Premier League on the right of a back three but is prone to a late challenge on a speedy opponent. Eberechi Eze, Ademola Lookman, Anwar El Ghazi and Heung-Min Son have all drawn bookings off the Spaniard this season and here he has to deal with the frightening prospect of keeping a lid on Allan Saint-Maximin.
Since the start of last season no player to have played more than 800 minutes averages more dribbles per-game than the winger (9.14) with 14 opposition players in that time picking up a booking for fouling the flying Frenchman.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1
BETTING ANGLE: Cesar Azpilicueta to get carded (11/2 with Sky Bet)
BETTING ANGLE: Newcastle to have nine or more shots (5/4 with Sky Bet)
Leicester-Liverpool - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 1-2
Palace-Burnley - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 0-1
Man City-Tottenham - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 1-0 or 2-0
Brighton-Villa - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 1-1
Southampton-Wolves - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 1-1
Arsenal-Leeds - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 2-3
West Brom-Man Utd - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 1-3
Everton-Fulham - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED 0-0
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