Premier League predictions and best bets: West Ham win at Liverpool to spark Spurs relegation panic
Watch Wolves vs Aston Villa, Leeds vs Man City, Brighton vs Nottingham Forest, Fulham vs Tottenham, Man Utd vs Crystal Palace & Arsenal vs Chelsea all live on Sky Sports; Play Super 6 to win £500,000!
Thursday 26 February 2026 21:45, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the weekend Premier League card.
Wolves vs Aston Villa, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
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The rise of set-pieces in the Premier League has changed the betting landscape in terms of how certain players, mostly centre backs, are now priced tighter than ever before.
But when one door closes, another opens in the betting game in terms of angles to exploit. And a market I've been keeping a very close eye on offered by Sky Bet this season is the "any goalkeeper to be fouled market" which is priced up for this encounter.
This is an area of the game this season which is seeing a big spike in the amount of goalkeepers being fouled due almost every team producing inswinging corners into the six-yard box and it's causing absolute chaos.
Over the previous six seasons, Premier League goalkeepers were fouled on average 0.24 times per 90. This season it's spiked. It's gone to 0.4 fouls per game. Last season there were 106 fouls on goalkeepers in 380 games. This season we're already at 106 fouls on goalkeepers in 271 games played, so we've already matched last season with another 109 games still to go.
In a game where Emiliano Martinez is playing, anything above 10/11 for a goalkeeper being fouled rates as an excellent value play. We can get 13/10 with Sky Bet.
Martinez is getting fouled at a rate of 0.65 this season and has been fouled seven times in his last five. He's the best hope of this bet landing but we've also got Jose Sa running for us too who was fouled last weekend at Crystal Palace and actually has been fouled in three of his last five starts vs Villa.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Any goalkeeper to be fouled (13/10 with Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs Sunderland, Saturday 12.30pm
Across their last 10 matches Bournemouth are shipping around 1.64 expected goals against per 90 - that's not sustainable if you're harbouring ambitions of a strong end to the season. It's not just speculative pot-shots either, they're giving up big, high-probability chances far too easily. West Ham managed to squander 3.25 worth of expected goals last weekend without manage to breach the Bournemouth defence.
The market is leaning heavily towards the hosts but if Bournemouth continue to concede chances at such an xGA clip, they're going to get punished. Sunderland don't need to dominate for 90 minutes; they just need moments. And they're capable of producing them with Evens on offer on the double chance market.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Burnley vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm
Burnley's recent defensive tweak has seen Josh Laurent nail down that right-sided role and he's embraced it. He's competitive, front-footed and happy to engage early. But there's a fine line between aggression and indiscipline and Laurent has been wobbling along it for weeks.
Five bookings in 2026 tells its own story. That's a dangerous habit when you're facing a direct runner in Kevin Schade for Brentford. The winger is a walking booking magnet. Since the start of last season, he's been responsible for 14 opposition players seeing yellow. He commits defenders, shifts the ball quickly and forces rash decisions. If you're slightly off it, or slightly too eager, you're in trouble. Laurent is 3/1 with Sky Bet to be carded.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Liverpool vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
Liverpool are short. Very short. And I'm not sure recent performances fully justify being 4/11 with Sky Bet.
Yes, they got the job done at Nottingham Forest, but the performance was dismal. Fine margins went their way and on another day they're walking off with dropped points. Arne Slot's controlled approach is clear to see: measured build-up, territorial dominance, reduced chaos. But there's a risk that in ironing out the madness, you also iron out the spark. At times they're drifting dangerously close to becoming sterile.
And when West Ham break, they break with purpose.
Jarrod Bowen remains one of the most efficient transition forwards in the league - direct, intelligent with his movement and ruthless when the chance lands. Crysensio Summerville adds that burst of acceleration and unpredictability that can turn defence into attack in seconds. West Ham need wins, therefore taking a swing at the 6/1 with Sky Bet for what would be a seismic away win makes plenty of sense.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Newcastle vs Everton, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
When Newcastle get into rhythm at home, a lot of their best work funnels down the left. Lewis Hall has really grown into that role and, quietly, he's developing a knack that punters should be paying attention to. Since December he's drawing 2.27 fouls per 90. That's repeatable behaviour. He shifts the ball quickly, invites contact and he's becoming one of the best around at selling a foul when it arrives.
Iliman Ndiaye will be repeatedly engaging Hall and against a player averaging north of two drawn fouls per match in that zone, the maths starts to make sense on him making two or more fouls at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Leeds vs Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
Everyone automatically looks at Erling Haaland for goals. But the smarter angle right now might be his creativity. There has been a dramatic uptick in creative output.
He only created 10 chances from open play in his first 18 league games of the season in 2025.
He's already created 10 in just nine league games in 2026.
And in terms of recent output, he's registered six assists in his last 17 games.
We're seeing a more rounded Haaland that is being asked to join in more with build-up. He's rolling balls across the six-yard box. He's slipping runners in behind.
With City expected to score twice by the market, Haaland's assist price of 7/2 with Sky Bet is of interest.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Elliot Anderson has been nudged further forward under new boss Vitor Pereira - and the player himself has admitted the message is clear: more end product, more presence in the final third and importantly for us more shots.
Music to the ears of anyone who plays in the player-prop markets.
If you factor in the super-sub concession, he's fired off 17 shots across his last four appearances. For a player who, earlier in the season, was often stationed deeper and tasked with linking play rather than finishing it the algorithms that price the shots markets are lagging behind this positional tweak.
At 11/8 with Sky Bet for two or more shots, the line feels based on Anderson's old role, not his new one.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Fulham vs Tottenham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
The relegation alarm bells are sounding for Tottenham, who are now 5/1 to be a Championship team next season.
With 11 games to go, that's real money being matched. We're no longer discussing the unthinkable. We're discussing the plausible.
They're in enormous danger.
And what should worry everyone associated with the club most, isn't just the results, it's the identity crisis. They look caught between philosophies and styles. There's an injury situation that's bitten hard. And when the pressure has gone up, the response hasn't been there so far.
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Fulham have won all five of their Premier League games against bottom-five sides this season. They've also won the last two Premier League meetings with Spurs.
And this is the key point: Fulham know exactly who they are. Structured. Aggressive in the right moments. Calm in possession. Against a side operating like a bottom-three team, at home, that's massive.
Do Spurs have the stomach for this? The mentality? The scrap? Because right now, all the underlying indicators say no. Fulham at Evens with Sky Bet looks good to me.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
This is one of those scheduling spots where Manchester United being out of Europe gives them a huge advantage. Oliver Glasner has developed a very clear pattern. When there's a knockout game in Europe, everything goes into it. Emotionally, tactically, physically, the dial gets turned up. The issue? The league game that follows often pays the price.
Across the last eight league fixtures immediately after a midweek knockout match, Glasner's teams have lost six, drawn one and won just once. And even that victory - against Wolves last weekend - had more than a whiff of fortune about it. Fine margins went their way.
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Now they head to face Manchester United who have started to find some rhythm. There's been more purpose in their attacking play. At 11/8 with Sky Bet for Manchester United to win by two or more goals, you're getting a price that doesn't fully account for a predicted post-Europe wobble from Palace.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-0
Arsenal vs Chelsea, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
This fixture for Arsenal is one of only two remaining in the Premier League against another current top six opponent. The other is the trip to Manchester City in April.
Chelsea tend to raise their game when faced with a big fixture but Arsenal's defensive process is just too reliable to ignore when assessing the prices for this encounter. Arsenal's underlying process remains the best in the league by a fair way with goals being conceded because of mistakes or low probability shots going in from distance.
- Joao Pedro thriving as Chelsea's No 9 - The Radar
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The last open-play Premier League goal they conceded inside the box that didn't come from an individual error was Ollie Watkins' consolation for Aston Villa on December 30. That's nine games ago.
They haven't allowed a properly constructed, carved-open, inside-the-box goal in that time. That is elite defensive control. The classic bet of Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals at 11/8 with Sky Bet, which has landed in seven of their last 11 home Premier League matches, has a fine chance of landing.
