Premier League predictions & Jones Knows' best bets: Champions again, ole, ole? Arsenal to make fast start on FNF
Our football betting expert Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, is back ahead of the new season; watch six matches live on Sky Sports from the opening round this weekend, starting with Arsenal vs Coventry on Friday from 6.30pm (kick-off 8pm) | Play Super 6 to win £1m!
Friday 21 August 2026 00:00, UK
Arsenal vs Coventry, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Arsenal look ready to go again. They are the team to beat.
And this is a lovely pipe opener for the season, where they are 1/6 with Sky Bet to get off to a winning start against the new boys. It should be relatively straightforward.
For a betting angle, Myles Lewis-Skelly is being seen as a genuine central midfielder now and, in the seven games he has started in that position, he has averaged 4.3 foul involvements (fouls won + fouls committed) per 90.
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The four-or-more line has landed in six of those seven matches and it's a great bet to land again at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
Coventry have deliberately added power and athleticism to their midfield ahead of their return to the Premier League which bodes well for fouls in central areas. Frank Onyeka, on loan last season, is the obvious example. He averaged 2.5 fouls drawn per 90 last season, while club-record signing Caleb Yirenkyi brings another energetic, aggressive presence into the middle of the pitch.
Lewis-Skelly will be in the thick of it.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Myles Lewis-Skelly +4 foul involvements (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Hull City vs Manchester United, Saturday 12.30pm
Can Michael Carrick turn last season's third-place finish into something sustainable and does the squad have enough depth to carry them through what will be a relentless schedule? I've got doubts.
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Carrick has a squad packed with attacking quality, while adding greater technical ability and physicality in midfield. He also appears to have created a more flexible possession structure.
But United still have issues about preventing games becoming chaotic and offering up chances to the opposition. Under Carrick they averaged 1.5 expected goals against per 90 last season - but only conceded 1.05 goals per game.
Even in pre-season, their collapse against AC Milan offered a warning that not much has changed in that regard.
Fuelled by their strong start to the season, Hull can add to the goals in what promises to be a high-scoring encounter. Both teams to score looks a solid play at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Everton vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall was outstanding in pre-season, earning the penalty from which Iliman Ndiaye scored in the 1-1 draw with Lille and was named man of the match. This isn't a surprise based on what we saw from him last season for Everton where he ranked 11th for all midfielders in the Premier League for goals and assists per 90 at 0.41.
His relentless energy gives David Moyes a midfielder who can arrive late in the box, press and carry the ball forward. He is 11/8 with Sky Bet to score or assist in a game Everton will fancy taking maximum points from.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Morgan Gibbs-White was phenomenal towards the end of last season, finishing with 15 Premier League goals and scoring seven in his last six games. The change of manager is an exciting one for Gibbs-White's numbers this season.
Tactically, Gibbs-White is perfect for the two attacking-midfielder positions behind the striker that Oliver Glasner likes to employ. And when Glasner gets his hands on a talented forward playing his vertical style, the result is usually a huge improvement in goal returns for that player.
Gibbs-White can get off the mark here at 9/4 with Sky Bet in the anytime goalscorer market.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Ipswich vs Sunderland, Saturday 3pm
Second season syndrome could be about to bite Sunderland, especially with the added stress of a European campaign to negotiate.
Since Leicester won the Premier League title in 2016, non "big-six" teams who undertake a European campaign following a season of no European football on average take 12.5 fewer points in the next season.
The extra workload and potential prioritisation of the European competition later in the season do have a negative impact on Premier League form. Even if looking at last season in isolation provides a great snapshot of the issue with Newcastle (-17), Nottingham Forest (-21) and Crystal Palace (-8) all regressing their league form whilst competing in Europe.
They also overachieved by 13 points last season based on Opta's expected goals model and were a bottom three team based on those metrics. The last seven teams to have finished five or more places higher than their expected finishing position have suffered regression in terms of their league position in the next season.
Sunderland look a bet to be relegated at 3/1 with Sky Bet and Ipswich might just set the tone for the season ahead with a home win at 8/5 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Brentford vs Tottenham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Roberto De Zerbi is one of the most exciting yet volatile managers in world football. He makes Spurs a thrilling prospect this season, but Micky van de Ven's absence for the opener creates opportunities for those looking to side with Brentford.
You don't want a brand-new centre-back partnership facing Igor Thiago, Kevin Schade and Dango Ouattara in the first competitive match of the season. Especially when Tottenham are likely to defend with a high line while trying to dominate possession. De Zerbi's possession game should create opportunities for Brentford's transition tactics.
Goals look on the menu so backing the Bees to score over 1.5 goals at evens rates as a tasty angle.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2
Brighton vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Brighton have spent the summer refining whilst Aston Villa have spent it rebuilding.
That explains why the Seagulls are being priced up as the favourites at 6/5 with Sky Bet.
However, Unai Emery has been through this kind of rebuild before and is renowned for his consistency and ability to overcome the loss of key players. Since taking over at Valencia in 2008/09, he has finished every season in the top seven of the league he has managed in - 15 out of 15, with an average finishing position of 4.3.
It makes the argument for him being the best pound-for-pound manager in the league right now very watertight. With Emery in their corner, I'm going to be backing Villa to win games a lot this season - starting here on the draw no bet at 5/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Manchester City vs Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Marco Rose is about as logical a replacement as Bournemouth could have found. His Red Bull background should preserve the aggressive pressing, vertical attacking and willingness to turn matches into transition battles. Crucially, he was appointed early enough to oversee a proper handover rather than having to start from scratch in August.
I'm expecting Bournemouth to be ready to go here whilst Man City's new system is still bedding in without Pep Guardiola.
Both teams to score in a game where the goals go over 3.5 is an option to consider at 5/4 with Sky Bet through their BuildABet function.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Newcastle vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Alexander Isak is walking back into the lion's den.
A year ago, the Swedish striker detonated the situation with Newcastle by declaring that his relationship with the club "cannot continue", citing broken promises and a lack of trust. What followed was an acrimonious £130m move to Liverpool and a summer of fury on Tyneside.
The interesting betting angle isn't whether he scores.
It's whether Newcastle kick him. And Sky Bet offer a "to be fouled" market, which is the perfect way to attack an Isak bet.
His historical fouls-won numbers are actually quite low, which explains why the bookmakers have priced this market so generously. We can get [10/11] on him being fouled once or more and [4/1] on two or more. Both are fantastic wagers as the market is pricing Isak's usual foul-winning profile. It isn't pricing the narrative.
Isak is going to have a target on his back.
Every time he gets the ball, the noise will go up. Every time he turns a Newcastle defender, there will be a reaction.
And if one of Newcastle's midfielders or defenders clatters into him?
St James' Park will erupt.
There is an incredibly easy way for a Newcastle player to get the crowd involved: put Isak on the floor.
I'm not suggesting anything premeditated, but rather the natural aggression that comes with a fiercely competitive opening-day game, amplified by an atmosphere that is likely to be particularly hostile towards one man.
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SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Alexander Isak to be fouled +1 times (10/11 with Sky Bet) & Isak to be fouled +2 times (4/1 with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs Chelsea, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Chelsea have appointed a manager in Xabi Alonso with a proper, recognisable football philosophy rather than another coach who will simply try to get the best out of the existing squad. His work at Bayer Leverkusen shows the real Alonso and he can be forgiven for being swallowed up by the Real Madrid circus.
To get the Blues competitive in a season when they have the advantage of no extra games is hardly an impossible task. They could even emerge as Arsenal's closest challengers. If that is to be the case, then winning away at a Fulham side now shrouded in uncertainty over their future would be a significant step. Marco Silva provided tactical clarity, Premier League know-how and, at the very least, the security of consistent mid-table finishes. With that safety net gone, Fulham are now playing a risky game.
Chelsea look one of the good things of the weekend at 17/20 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Chelsea to win (17/20 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows' best bets...
- 1pt on Myles Lewis-Skelly +4 foul involvements (10/11 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Chelsea to beat Fulham (17/20 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Alexander Isak to be fouled +1 times (10/11 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Alexander Isak to be fouled +2 times (4/1 with Sky Bet)
