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Sunday 3 December 2023 17:07, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows takes aim at the Premier League, sprinkling his analysis over the weekend card, and is all over Man City to easily overcome Tottenham Hotspur on Super Sunday.
Bournemouth are red hot under Andoni Iraola - and there is a huge amount of juice everywhere you look regarding their prospects in this encounter. It's easy to make a case for the 5/4 with Sky Bet on them scoring two or more goals and the 5/6 on offer for them to avoid defeat against a very skinny Aston Villa, who haven't convinced me at all on the road this season.
Iraola has found the key to his unique hybrid press system in that Ryan Christie is being utilised perfectly in the centre of the pitch which is setting the platform for everything else to click around him. Christie has made four tackles in both the impressive victories over Newcastle and Sheffield United and although my enthusiasm for a tackles bet is usually low, I'm happy to row in on Christie's lines which look too big to me based on this new role.
You can get 7/1 with Sky Bet on him repeating the feat and registering four or more tackles while those that like to play a little bit more reserved should also note the 5/6 for two or more and 5/2 for three or more. Christie can be at the forefront of another sprightly Cherries showing that should continue their surge up the table.
It would be very '2023 Chelsea' if a depleted Brighton, despite selling the Londoners £200m worth of players and having their manager poached, could win at Stamford Bridge.
However, Roberto De Zerbi's team are far from their usual barnstorming selves such is their injury-list and intense Europa League encounters. The suspension of Lewis Dunk is a massive issue, too, as Brighton have failed to win the last five games without him, including the recent 1-1 draw with Sheffield United.
A quick scan of their key metrics over the past five games showcases a struggle compared to the usual electric figure posted by a De Zerbi team. In that period the non-penalty expected goals data reads Brighton 5.67 vs 6.70 to the opposition and the shot count also paints a negative figure of 46 shots vs 76 shots faced. The eye-test backed that up on Thursday as they were very fortunate to leave AEK Athens with maximum points considering the chances created by the Greek side. They don't look like a De Zerbi side at the moment.
All this evidence makes this a very winnable fixture for Chelsea but the 8/11 with Sky Bet isn't a price I'm willing to play at considering the hot and cold nature of the Blues at home. I'd much rather back a bigger price for Chelsea to win by three or more goals at 5/1.
When Brighton get beat, it can escalate quickly into a thrashing as shown in heavy defeats to Everton and Aston Villa under De Zerbi. And in their last seven Premier League defeats, the aggregate score has been a whopping 25-7 in favour of the opposition.
This might be a case of missing the wedding and attending the funeral but after raving about Trent Alexander-Arnold's goalscoring and shots prices for most of this season it would be rude not to bring to attention his prices this weekend with his confidence likely flowing after his first goal of the season at Manchester City.
It's time Alexander-Arnold upped his strike-rate in front of goal. Since undergoing the tactical tweak to play him more centrally, the England man has only scored twice in 22 appearances - a disappointing return of a player with his undoubted quality playing in such an attack-minded side. However, that goal at the Etihad should spark his already spiking shot numbers - he's had 10 in his last five games. So, the 4/6 with Sky Bet for him to register two or more shots looks a very solid play and the 13/2 anytime price is also worth a look in what looks a routine home win for Jurgen Klopp's men.
West Ham have won five of their last six games, duly cantered into the knockout stages of the Europa League, have a Carabao Cup quarter-final to look forward to and are just eight points off top four. So, why am I not remotely interested in the Evens with Sky Bet for them to beat a very ordinary and ambitionless Crystal Palace, who are missing their main man in Eberechi Eze.
This just reeks of a slow burner.
Palace are notorious for allowing games to drift and play risk-free football in the first halves with 10 of their 13 games seeing them fail to score this season. It's resulted in eight of those 13 matches going in at the break 0-0 and the 15/8 with Sky Bet on offer here for such a scenario does look like an edge to exploit.
Tottenham are heavily odds-on to lose a fourth straight Premier League match for the first time in 19 years. Surely the manager must go. Bring Jose back. Or Antonio. This would never happen on their watch. Who wants fun anyway.
Joshing aside, Spurs could be gobbled up here by a damaging scoreline but from a punting perspective I'm all for following them to contribute towards what's likely to be a very high goals total. Tottenham to score two or more at 11/4 with Sky Bet stands out.
As Chelsea showed in the 4-4 draw with City, if you can take the game into chaotic mode then City can be vulnerable through their midfield where Rodri is being overworked. Spurs thrive on chaos and they top the charts in the Premier League for shots from open play and fast breaks this season (164).
Dejan Kulusevski also remains overpriced to score at 13/2. He has scored in both of Spurs' last trips to the Etihad Stadium and is getting into some dangerous scoring positions of late, notching against Chelsea and hitting the post in the 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa.
His positional play really caught my eye last Sunday as it seems Ange Postecoglou is negating the loss of creativity from James Maddison's injury by playing a front four with Kulusevski still playing off the right but with more instruction to play as a second striker. If this trend continues, then a player of his intelligence and skill is going to see a huge increase in his strike rate in front of goal - hopefully starting on Sunday.