Manchester City v Chelsea: How important are games between title rivals?

Manchester City’s Super Sunday showdown with reigning champions Chelsea is an early opportunity for Manuel Pellegrini to strike the first blow in the title race – but what do the stats say about the importance of meetings between the top sides?

City lagged eight points behind Chelsea as Jose Mourinho’s side eased to the title last season, but Sunday’s clash at the Etihad Stadium gives them the opportunity to open up an early five-point advantage.

"We can't go into the game thinking it's about winning the league but it will matter,” said City captain Vincent Kompany this week. “We need to put in a great performance. I don’t think we’ll be looking at points too much but we want to beat them. It will be a good game – it's a big game so early on."

If City are to close last season’s gap on Chelsea this year, taking points off them directly would be a good way to start. After all, the difference between the Premier League winners and runners-up has been four points or less in five of the last 10 years.

Taking points off Mourinho’s Chelsea, however, is easier said than done. Mourinho is the master of grinding out results, and his record against Chelsea’s title rivals since returning to the club two years ago is formidable.

Mourinho is unbeaten in 12 Premier League meetings against the rest of the top four since 2013. Against City last season there were 1-1 draws at the Etihad and Stamford Bridge, and in 2013/14 the Blues won both of their meetings with Pellegrini’s men.

Chelsea’s superior head-to-head record helped them clinch the title last season, but how do City’s results against the rest of the top four under Pellegrini compare?

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Last season, City’s big-game struggles cost them dearly. While Chelsea won two and drew four of their six games against City, Arsenal and Manchester United, City only won once, drawing three times and losing twice. That record left them bottom of the head-to-head rankings, and it is certainly an area of improvement for Pellegrini.

Indeed, even when City did win the title in 2013/14, they only took seven points against Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal, nine fewer than Mourinho’s men. It was only thanks to Chelsea’s repeated slip-ups against lesser teams that City were able to make up the difference.

City did fare better back in 2012/13, taking 11 points from a possible 18, and victory over Chelsea on Sunday would give them an important head start in this fledgling campaign.

Chelsea’s failure to win the title in 2013/14 shows that winning the big games is not always decisive, but the stats indicate the perils of a poor record against your title rivals. In each of the last five Premier League seasons, the title-winning side has ranked at least second in the top four head-to-head rankings.

The title will not be won or lost at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday, but recent history shows the importance of a good head-to-head record against your title rivals. The possibility is there for City or Chelsea to gain what could eventually prove to be a significant advantage.

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