The Science of Scouting: Comparing players

Working out the impact a potential new signing might have on a team is not an exact science. But that doesn’t mean you can’t do plenty of research to help your club make the best educated guess possible.

That’s the job of Rob Mackenzie at Leicester. “There are two scenarios,” he tells Sky Sports. “Sometimes you’re looking for a similar role in the team but an improvement on what you’ve got. Sometimes you’re looking for someone to complement what you’ve already got and bring something different.

“For us, we obviously identify what we want to get from a player and then we look to compare that to another player who is similar at that level. For example, if we’re looking for a target-man striker, even if we don’t have one in the building that we can compare him to there are other target men we know and like who we can compare him to.”

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Introducing a new type of player to the team is particularly tricky and requires considerable thought. Will he suit the side’s style of play? “I know there’s a lot of work going on in the blogging community about goal expectancy and the quality of chances that strikers have,” says Mackenzie. “There are a lot of mismatches that can occur when a striker is bought by another club who don’t create the types of chances that he is used to.  This potential mismatch may contribute to a striker struggling goal wise.

“It’s not to say that strikers aren’t capable of scoring different types of goals but if you’re trying to minimise risk and you’re looking at how a player usually takes his chances, if we’re not creating those types of chances there’s a possibility it won’t work. That’s where the subjective aspect comes in. If he’s a target man with no pace then he’s not going to be getting onto through-balls because he physically can’t do it.

“So we look hard at how teams play, where their chances come from and then we ask ourselves whether we create those types of chances. Last season we didn’t create that many goals from crosses because we had wide men coming in off the line so we’ve complemented our wide options by bringing Marc Albrighton in.

“One of the things about Riyad Mahrez is that when we bought him from Le Havre we saw that he was an effective player from counter-attacks, coming in off the line when going forward on transitions & playing penetrative through-balls. We were a counter-attacking side with pace so straight away you’re thinking that he’s going to complement the way that we already play.”

Leicester’s style of play involves lots of hard work and that’s something Mackenzie attempts to factor in when assessing new recruits. “Work rate is really important under this manager. For example, if you’re being asked to play as a lone striker in a 4-2-3-1 you might be being asked to hold the central position so you can be an outlet if your team wins the ball back.

We try to model clubs who play a similar way so it’s easier to see if they are doing it more or less effectively than our players.

“In that case, you’re not going to go chasing centre-backs, but if we are playing a 4-4-2 the front two would normally be expected to defend from the front. So you have to take into account that his stats might be based on what he’s being told to do. He might be capable of doing it but he’s not doing it for various reasons. As a result, we try to model clubs who play a similar way so it’s easier to see if they are doing it more or less effectively than