Analysis
Premier League predictions & Jones Knows' best bets: Liverpool vs Arsenal, Crystal Palace vs Tottenham and much more
Watch Crystal Palace vs Tottenham, Aston Villa vs Fulham, Liverpool vs Arsenal and Newcastle vs Everton live on Sky Sports this weekend; Play Super 6 to win £1m!
Thursday 29 October 2026 16:59, UK
Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight for a busy weekend of Premier League action.
Chelsea vs Man Utd, Saturday 12.30pm
This has the potential to be a tough watch - and that is absolutely fine when you are getting 11/8 with Sky Bet about a game producing two goals or fewer.
Michael Carrick needs to get Manchester United into some sort of shape, with no wins in eight games across all competitions and the pressure mounting after Sunday's 3-0 home defeat to Bournemouth. Expect pragmatism over adventure at Stamford Bridge. United need a platform to build from, not another chaotic shoot-out and Carrick has reason to prioritise defensive discipline over taking risks.
The numbers support that approach, too. Away Premier League games under Carrick across his last 11-game spell have averaged just 2.15 goals.
Chelsea's attacking reputation is doing plenty of the work in the market but the absence of Joao Pedro is significant and helps makes United a value play at the prices which have them at 3/1 with Sky Bet for the away win. That's too big. In nine Premier League games without the Brazilian, Chelsea have averaged 0.9 fewer goals per 90 minutes. That is a substantial drop-off in output and his thigh injury leaves Xabi Alonso needing to find another route to goal.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (11/8 with Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
There is a fatigue angle worth exploring here. Bournemouth are playing their sixth game in 22 days. The highs have been significant, too, with wins over AC Milan and Manchester United.
Marco Rose is rotating his pack accordingly, but the accumulated demands of this run could catch up with Bournemouth. You can only keep asking the same players to deliver at intensity for so long before the legs start to feel it.
Leeds, by contrast, have enjoyed a far quieter build-up. Daniel Farke's side drew 0-0 at Sunderland on Sunday and have had the luxury of a clear midweek to prepare for this trip. That extra recovery time could prove important against opponents who have barely had a moment to breathe.
The other reason to side with Leeds is their resilience. They have lost just twice in their last 17 Premier League games - a reminder that winning is a habit, but not losing is one too. The Whites might not always turn competitive performances into three points but they have developed a knack for staying in games.
Leeds draw no bet at 6/4 with Sky Bet offers an appealing option of backing the fresher side to get something from the game, with your stake returned if the points are shared.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
Brentford are developing a habit of stopping opponents by any means necessary. They are leading the Premier League for fouls committed this season, averaging 14 per game - a significant spike on last season's numbers that hints at a more aggressive, cynical approach.
That makes James McAtee an interesting target in the player-props market. The Nottingham Forest midfielder has been thriving in the heart of the pitch, where his ability to receive the ball in tight spaces and turn away from pressure makes him a difficult player to contain.
McAtee has been fouled 14 times across his eight Premier League starts this season, averaging 1.75 per game. Crucially, the two-or-more fouls line has landed in five of those eight appearances. At 11/10 with Sky Bet it's worth backing to go in again.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Coventry vs Sunderland, Saturday 3pm
Sunderland look a very ropey favourite at 13/10 with Sky Bet. There is a difference between being a good team and being a good bet and the Black Cats' record when expected to deliver away from home makes me reluctant to get involved at that price.
In their last 12 away games when priced shorter than 3/1, Sunderland have won just twice - against Oxford in the FA Cup and Torreense. On both occasions, they scraped through by a single goal. Backing them with a £1 stake in each of those 12 matches would have left you £9.20 down. That is not the profile of a side I want to be trusting at these kind of prices.
There is also the question of confidence. When results and performances are not quite clicking, being asked to take the initiative away from home can become an uncomfortable assignment.
Coventry offer the alternative. At 6/5 on the draw no bet market, we can back the home side to take advantage without needing them to win to potentially at least break even.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Hull vs Ipswich, Saturday 3pm
There is a strong case for opposing Ipswich.
Their 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest had a touch of the Julio Enciso-or-nothing about it, with the Paraguayan providing the moment of quality to rescue a point despite Town being fortunate to escape with anything based on the flow of the game and the underlying numbers.
Ipswich might be sitting in mid-table with 10 points, but the results are flattering them. They have scored stoppage-time winners against Fulham, Crystal Palace and Sunderland, and while late goals are a sign of resilience, you cannot keep relying on fine margins to paper over the cracks.
Their expected-goals supremacy figure of -0.65 per 90 minutes is the worst in the Premier League. In simple terms, they are giving up more in chance quality than they create - a worrying trend for a side trying to establish itself at this level.
The table might look comfortable for now, but the underlying performance data suggests there is plenty of work to do if they are to avoid being dragged into a relegation fight.
Hull have their own issues but the home side have shown they can compete and this feels like an opportunity to take advantage of an Ipswich team whose results are running ahead of their performances. At 8/5 with Sky Bet, the Tigers are worth backing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Hull to win (8/5 with Sky Bet)
Man City vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
Brighton have shown time and again that they are a punter's dream when travelling to the Premier League's elite clubs.
Across their last 15 matches against Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City, the Seagulls have scored 22 goals, with an aggregate score of 22-21. That is not the profile of a team content to sit in a low block and hope for scraps. We saw against Liverpool and Manchester City in the last week that Brighton want the ball, want to attack and are more than willing to trade punches with the division's best.
For betting purposes, though, it is their shot count that really catches the eye. Brighton have averaged 14 shots per game across those 15 matches, while they registered 17 efforts in both their trips to Liverpool and City over the past week.
That makes the 7/2 on a Brighton win tempting but backing them to win is asking a lot when the opposition have so much individual quality. I would rather focus on Sky Bet's Evens for Brighton to record 12 or more shots - that looks a much smarter way into this fixture.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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I've been waiting in the shadows to jump on the Tottenham train and now feels like the time to climb aboard.
Back-to-back wins have finally delivered the results that Roberto De Zerbi's performances had been threatening for a while. There is a clearer identity emerging, the new signings are beginning to look more comfortable and confidence is starting to return. This is a Spurs side with a high ceiling if everything clicks into place.
My faith is built on what they are doing without the ball. Since De Zerbi took charge, Tottenham have averaged just 1.03 expected goals against per 90 minutes in the Premier League. Only Arsenal have posted a better defensive figure in that period. That is an impressive platform to build from, particularly for a team still finding its feet in the final third.
If the attacking pieces now start to fall into place, Spurs have the potential to turn solid performances into emphatic wins.
Palace look a good opponent to test that theory against. Their defensive numbers make grim reading, having conceded at least twice in 12 of their last 14 Premier League matches. That is a worrying trend against a Tottenham side beginning to find momentum.
The -1 handicap at 11/8 with Sky Bet requires Spurs to win by two or more goals. The bet of the weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Tottenham -1 handicap (11/8 with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Fulham, Saturday 8pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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Calvin Bassey is the sort of defender I love targeting in the player props markets. He is a maverick who wants to get on the ball, carry it forward and impose himself on a game. That adventurous streak can make him a liability defensively at times but it also creates plenty of opportunities for betting on his foul involvements.
Bassey has racked up 17 foul involvements across his last three games - combining fouls won with fouls conceded. His average across his last 20 Premier League appearances stands at 3.1 per game, so the three-involvement mark here with Sky Bet at Evens is hardly asking him to do something extraordinary.
The match-up at Villa Park could be particularly tasty, too. Nicolas Jackson looks in menacing form after running Marc Guehi ragged last weekend against Manchester City. Villa's striker will look to get at Fulham's defence, using his movement and physicality to draw contact while Bassey's willingness to step out and engage could lead to a lively individual battle.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Calvin Bassey +3 foul involvements (Evens with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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Andoni Iraola loves a tactical foul. You can often spot him applauding from the touchline when one of his players takes the decision to halt an opposition attack before it develops into something dangerous. It is a key part of his football philosophy. Stop the transition early.
That mentality has clearly travelled with him to Liverpool. His side are averaging 13.75 fouls per game in the Premier League and I like the look of backing them to keep that average ticking over against Arsenal.
This fixture has all the ingredients for a high foul count. The intensity should be obvious from the first whistle, with both sides capable of hurting each other in transition and Arsenal happy to engage in a duel-heavy game. That's their bread and butter.
There is also a compelling case for a tight contest here. The draw at 9/4 with Sky Bet is the outcome that appeals most in the main markets and a closely fought game could mean plenty of interruptions as neither side gives the other room to breathe. Liverpool making 13 or more fouls at 11/10 with Sky Bet, along with the draw, are two of the standout betting angles.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Newcastle vs Everton, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
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The betting market is yet to be convinced by Newcastle and their price to beat Everton at St James' Park tells its own story.
At 5/4 with Sky Bet, this is the biggest price they have been to win this fixture in their last six home meetings. For context, across the previous two seasons they were priced at 7/10 and even 1/4 to beat the Toffees on home soil.
So what has changed? The underlying numbers are hardly screaming that Newcastle are a team to trust with Eddie Howe gone. Matthias Jaissle has plenty to prove in the Premier League with Newcastle currently recording an expected-goals supremacy of -0.58 per game - the third-worst figure in the division. That is a worrying metric for a side being asked to justify favouritism at home.
Their win over Crystal Palace last weekend did little to silence those doubts. Newcastle lost the expected-goals battle, the shot count and the corner count, making the result look rather fortunate when you dig beneath the surface.
Everton are worth taking seriously at this price. With Newcastle looking vulnerable, I am happy to oppose the hosts and give ourselves the insurance of the draw by backing Everton on the draw no bet market at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Jones Knows' best bets...
- Under 2.5 goals in Chelsea vs Man Utd (11/8 with Sky Bet)
- Hull to beat Ipswich (8/5 with Sky Bet)
- Calvin Bassey +3 foul involvements (Evens with Sky Bet)
- Tottenham -1 handicap (11/8 with Sky Bet)
