Premier League predictions and best bets: Destruction derby? Manchester City set to smash Manchester United
The Manchester derby - Michael Carrick's first game as Man Utd head coach - will be shown live on Sky Sports Premier League on Saturday; kick-off 12.30pm; watch free in-game clips on the Sky Sports app and free highlights after the final whistle
Thursday 15 January 2026 21:30, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League weekend and tips Manchester City to win a thrilling Manchester derby.
Manchester United vs Manchester City, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Pep Guardiola is enjoying playing with his shiny new toy.
Antonie Semenyo has hit the ground running at Manchester City and his anytime goalscorer angle for this Manchester derby at 15/8 with Sky Bet really appeals.
What really stood out in the win at Newcastle was how different Semenyo makes this Manchester City attack look. City have brilliance, control and structure coming out of their ears but what they don't always have is raw, aggressive directness. Semenyo brings that in bucketloads.
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Defenders are obsessed with Erling Haaland - that is only going to help Semenyo. It creates pockets of space and Semenyo is clever enough and aggressive enough to exploit them. Whether he's starting wide left, drifting inside from the right or ghosting in around Haaland, he's constantly sniffing danger rather than waiting for it.
And, for whatever reason, space seems to open up for him against Manchester United and he revels in it. Semenyo has scored in his last three appearances against United, including that bonkers 4-4 draw at Old Trafford earlier this season.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Antonie Semenyo to score (15/8 with Sky Bet)
Chelsea vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
Brentford rocking up at Stamford Bridge doesn't feel like a mismatch anymore - in fact, it's becoming a fixture they quietly look forward to. They've lost just once in their last eight visits across west London and that tells you everything about the mentality of this team. There is no fear.
And right now, they are absolutely humming.
Brentford are in the middle of their best unbeaten Premier League run of the season - six games without defeat, winning four of the last five. And since December 14, no Premier League team has picked up more points than the Bees (14). They are 11/10 with Sky Bet on the double chance.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Leeds vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm
Leeds are a great watch and their games are quite chaotic by design. They play on the edge, get in your face and they ask questions of the opposition, but they also invite pressure. Across their last 18 fixtures their games are averaging 3.5 goals and they've kept just one clean sheet in that period.
Fulham arrive as the perfect dance partner to punt on goals with over 2.5 looking very generous at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
They've scored in their last 12 matches across all competitions, showing a level of attacking consistency that travels well. Marco Silva's side don't need huge dominance to find the net either - they're sharp in transition, clever in the half-spaces and dangerous from wide areas.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
Arne Slot's Liverpool are beginning to look like a serious team again.
The big shift has come in their structure in defence. Slot has clearly prioritised control without the ball, giving Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate proper protection in front of them rather than leaving them exposed, which in turn has cut out the silly errors costing them goals.
Across their last eight games, Liverpool have conceded just five goals. That's not smoke and mirrors either. The expected goals against data backs it up nicely at 0.8 per 90, pointing to a side that is limiting high-quality chances rather than relying on last-ditch defending or goalkeeping heroics.
When you combine Liverpool's improved defensive process with Burnley's limited attacking threat, Liverpool to win to nil shapes up as a shrewd play at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Sunderland vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
Crystal Palace arrive off the back of that damaging FA Cup exit, knocked out in the third round by non-league Macclesfield. The instinctive reaction is to expect a fierce response. But history strongly pushes back against that idea.
Looking at the last 13 Premier League teams dumped out by League One opposition or below at that stage, the next-game record reads poorly: three wins, four draws and six defeats. And even those three wins were by the bare minimum - a single-goal margin. There's no evidence of a bounce-back surge. If anything, the hangover lingers.
Sunderland remain unbeaten at home this season - a run built on energy, structure and a crowd that turns the Stadium of Light into a very uncomfortable place to visit. They look a great price on the draw no bet at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Tottenham vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm
Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville are the livewires for West Ham. Stop them, and you largely stop West Ham.
The problem for the visitors is that they're running into a Tottenham side specifically designed to take that weapon away.
One of the defining traits of Thomas Frank's Spurs is how well they manage transition moments. They don't allow games to become stretched, they recover their shape quickly and they suffocate counter-attacks before they ever get going. That's backed up by the numbers.
Across the season, Spurs have conceded the second-fewest fast breaks in the league (11) - and crucially, they haven't conceded a single goal from a fast break.
There's also a very strong angle under Frank in that nine of his 10 wins as Spurs boss have come to nil. When Tottenham win, they don't just win, they shut the door. It's 2/1 with Sky Bet to land again.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Tottenham to win to nil (2/1 with Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
Gabriel Magalhaes is quietly becoming a magnet for fouls. Not because he's theatrical, but because of how Arsenal use him. He steps in aggressively during build-up, carries the ball forward into pressure and is constantly involved in physical duels at set pieces. That combination naturally invites contact and referees have been happy to blow the whistle.
The recent numbers underline that trend. Gabriel has been fouled at least once in nine of his last 10 starts, averaging 1.53 fouls drawn per 90. That's a healthy baseline for a centre-back, and it puts the 2+ fouls line well within reach in the right type of game at 11/4 with Sky Bet. Here, he's coming up against Igor Jesus.
The Forest striker is aggressive, raw and still learning when to step in and when to back off. He's committed 22 fouls across his recent matches.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Gabriel to be fouled +2 times (11/4 with Sky Bet)
Wolves vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
Wolves have quietly become a very difficult team to score against. The standout trend in their recent performances is defensive improvement, and it's backed up by serious underlying numbers.
Across their last six games, only Arsenal can better Wolves' expected goals against process of 0.99 per 90. That's elite territory. Wolves have faced Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United in that spell. So while the sample size is small, the quality of opposition gives those numbers real credibility.
We know Newcastle are a very different proposition away from St James' Park - and it's the attacking drop-off that's most striking. In their last 17 Premier League away games, they've scored more than 1.5 goals just three times.
On average, Newcastle are managing just 1.2 goals per away game in that run, struggling to generate sustained pressure or high-quality chances on their travels. The 6/5 with Sky Bet on them scoring under 1.5 goals again on the road looks a winner in waiting.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Aston Villa vs Everton, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
David Moyes' record away from home against top-level opposition is horrendous.
Going all the way back to his West Ham days, his record away at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City reads 20 losses from 21 games. It's a brutal return.
Those games tend to follow the same script too: sit deep, limit damage, slow the tempo and hope to stay in the contest for as long as possible. Now, this fixture doesn't technically fall into that bracket - but at what point do we start calling Aston Villa an elite home side?
Villa Park has become a fortress. They've won their last 11 home games, a run that includes statement victories over Arsenal and Manchester City. The intensity, structure and belief Unai Emery has created there is right up there with the very best in the league.
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Moyes' away games are rarely chaotic though. Since returning to Everton, just two of his 20 away matches have gone over 3.5 goals, with the average sitting at just 1.8 goals per 90. That's why combining a Villa win and under 3.5 goals makes sense at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Brighton vs Bournemouth, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Bournemouth's away games this season are bonkers. They're averaging 4.8 goals per game on the road. Nope, not a typo. Yes, almost five goals per game.
The markets are fully aligned for goals in this one though, which naturally pushes us toward the anytime goalscorer angle.
And who better to target than Kaoru Mitoma? The Japanese winger is starting to look like his old sparky, nightmare-for-defenders self. His movement, bursts in behind and instinct for goal are all back in evidence - as shown by his goal vs Manchester City.
History gives us even more confidence. Mitoma has scored five goals in his last six games against Bournemouth - that bit of a psychological edge over the opposition isn't factored into the prices at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | JONES KNOWS' BET BET: Karou Mitoma to score (5/2 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows' best bets...
- 1pt double on Antonie Semenyo & Karou Mitoma both to score (9/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt double on over 2.5 goals in Leeds vs Fulham & Aston Villa to win and under 3.5 goals (7/2 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Tottenham to win to nil (2/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Gabriel to win +2 fouls (11/4 with Sky Bet)
