Premier League predictions & Jones Knows' best bets: Crystal Palace pain? Man City to make it back-to-back wins
Our football betting expert Lewis Jones landed all four of his best bets last weekend and nailed six correct results and four exact scores! Watch SEVEN matches live on Sky Sports this weekend; Play Super 6 for a chance to win £1m!
Thursday 27 August 2026 22:49, UK
Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, was in flying form last weekend - can he repeat the trick?
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Marc Guehi has been fouled 43 times in his last 17 matches for club and country, with opponents committing two or more fouls on him in 10 of those games. That is a hit rate of 59 per cent - comfortably above the probability implied by the 5/4 with Sky Bet, which makes this a value play.
The eye test backs it up, too. Guehi is far more comfortable carrying the ball into traffic than he was 12 months ago. He invites challenges, shields possession brilliantly and has become increasingly clever at using defenders' momentum against them.
Now add the Selhurst Park factor. This is Guehi's first return to his former club since joining Manchester City and it would be no surprise if the Palace crowd and players make him feel the heat. There is a target on his back here.
Also, Enzo Maresca surprisingly used Guehi in central midfield against Bournemouth. If he starts there again, this bet becomes even more appealing.
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SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Marc Guehi to be fouled +2 times (5/4 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 12:30pm
There is an expectation of attacking football at Anfield, particularly with Liverpool's new-look side and the attacking reputation of their new manager Andoni Iraola. But I think the goals market is asking Forest to contribute more than they have shown any evidence of doing so far under Oliver Glasner.
They have failed to score in both games against Leeds, producing just 1.4 expected goals across 180 minutes. The lack of cutting edge has been worrying.
Glasner has pointed to the upheaval he inherited, key departures and the limited time he has had to implement his ideas. This project may take time.
And there is a fascinating historical pointer. Glasner's teams have struggled to create against Iraola's sides, failing to score in four of the five meetings.
That's why backing under 2.5 goals at 5/4 with Sky Bet rates as a value play.
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SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (5/4 with Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs Everton, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall scoring against Crystal Palace landed in last week's column - and I'm sticking with him at 4/1 with Sky Bet to go in again.
Why? Because I don't think we should be viewing him as a midfielder anymore.
Against Palace, he played in that advanced No 10 role and looked a genuine goal threat, scoring with a superb left-footed finish after arriving inside the box. He had three shots, one on target and four touches in the opposition penalty area.
He then had seven shots in midweek against Preston.
Yes, the opposition was Championship rather than Premier League quality and Everton won 4-0 but it confirmed something I saw against Palace that Dewsbury-Hall has been given licence to attack.
He's not simply making the occasional late run from midfield. He's playing alongside Thierno Barry, finding pockets between midfield and defence and getting into positions where he can finish moves himself.
Bournemouth should provide him with opportunities to do that again.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Coventry vs Hull, Saturday 3pm
There is something rather appealing about backing goals when two promoted sides meet this early in a Premier League season. For starters, the last 36 fixtures of this nature has seen over 1.5 goals hit on 35 occasions.
Also, the last five newly-promoted teams to play their first home game of the season have won it, so history is certainly pointing towards a positive afternoon for Coventry. But Frank Lampard's side have some defensive issues to iron out after Arsenal exposed them in a 3-0 defeat on the opening weekend before conceding two at Plymouth in the Carabao Cup.
Hull, meanwhile, could hardly have made a better start. They stunned Manchester United 2-0 last weekend, showing the aggression, organisation and set-piece threat that could make them awkward opponents for plenty of teams this season.
There is also a betting-system angle that makes me reluctant to write off the visitors. A one-unit stake on Hull whenever they have started a game bigger than 2/1 since the beginning of last season would have returned a £34.96 profit. That includes away wins at Millwall twice, Middlesbrough and, most impressively, United last weekend.
The safer route is to take the result out of the question and both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at Evens with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Tottenham vs Newcastle United, Saturday 5:30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There are times in betting when you have to decide whether a bad performance is a warning sign or a price-making opportunity.
I'm leaning towards the latter with Tottenham.
The 3-0 defeat at Brentford was awful. There is no dressing it up. Spurs looked disjointed, physically behind the game and defensively vulnerable, while Roberto De Zerbi admitted afterwards that his side were "not a team" yet.
But I'm prepared to give them another chance.
De Zerbi has an excellent record in the game immediately following a defeat of three or more goals, winning eight of 11 such matches, with his teams averaging 2.1 goals. That's a big enough sample to make me sit up as Tottenham are available at 6/5 with Sky Bet. It's a bet.
There were mitigating circumstances at Brentford, too.
Spurs had five competitive debutants in their starting XI, while Micky van de Ven and Pedro Porro were unavailable and several players had either returned late from the World Cup or endured disrupted pre-seasons.
It doesn't excuse the performance, but it does suggest that some of what went wrong is fixable.
And there is now a sense of the cavalry returning.
I'm not suddenly convinced Spurs are back to being the team many expected them to be before a ball was kicked. But the home win price looks quite tasty at odds-against as this feels like a classic reaction game for De Zerbi and Tottenham.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Chelsea vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Chelsea just might have the best attack in the Premier League. Monday's night win at Fulham got tongues wagging on that front.
It was aggressive. It was vertical. And it was quite chaotic.
Xabi Alonso used Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers operating behind João Pedro. The trio combined for all three Chelsea goals and Alonso subsequently described them as central to what he is building. They were electric.
However, Chelsea conceded twice as Robert Sánchez made another costly error and Fulham had opportunities to punish a defence that looked vulnerable when Chelsea's aggressive shape was exposed. That lack of defensive cohesion stems from the lack of authority from the goalkeeper.
Are Chelsea now structurally a team capable of producing these types of matches regularly? I'd be confident of that answer being yes, meaning there is value in backing their games to be high scoring before the market full adjusts.
Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score should be a staple Chelsea bet to follow in the coming weeks, starting here at 4/5 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score (4/5 with Sky Bet)
Leeds vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Brentford fired in 26 shots and registered an expected goals total of 3.87 last weekend - it was the highest xG of the opening weekend.
However, the Bees aren't the same animal on the road to the extent they've only averaged 1.15 goals per game under Keith Andrews. One of those was this corresponding fixture last season which ended 0-0 - a game which bored everyone to tears. It was football as a form of punishment for those watching. Neither side created a big chance and the combined xG was just 0.98. The ultimate stalemate.
There is something about this fixture that makes me think we could be in for another game where both managers are more interested in avoiding defeat than throwing bodies forward. The draw and under 2.5 goals is 100/30 with Sky Bet and that's a price worth respecting.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Sunderland vs Fulham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Everyone quite rightly came away from Fulham's 3-2 defeat to Chelsea talking about Cole Palmer.
But what about Josh King?
The Fulham teenager was not too far behind Palmer in the wow-factor stakes.
King scored Fulham's first goal at Craven Cottage. He finished the game with three shots, two on target and was a constant threat for a Fulham side that looked dangerous in transition. This wasn't a case of a young player popping up in the right place once and taking advantage. King was Fulham's key man in attack. He looked willing to carry the ball, take responsibility and get shots away.
The market is still treating him like an emerging youngster rather than someone who can genuinely be one of Fulham's primary attacking outlets.
The 9/2 for King to score with Sky Bet therefore looks interesting in what looks a very tough clash to call.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Manchester United vs Ipswich, Sunday 4:30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
You don't have to convince me twice to back a set-piece angle.
Manchester United won just 42 per cent of their duels in their 2-0 defeat to Hull - the lowest figure recorded by any Premier League team on the opening weekend. That lack of physical bite is a concern in a league where you simply cannot afford to be second best in the fundamentals.
Since Michael Carrick took charge, United have conceded 20 Premier League goals in 18 matches - 10 of them from set plays. That's an extraordinary ratio. Only Bournemouth and Leeds have conceded a higher proportion of their goals from set-pieces during that period.
And Hull provided the perfect example of how to exploit it, scoring both goals from dead-ball situations in their stunning victory at Old Trafford.
So why should we expect Ipswich to be any different?
Dara O'Shea is the first-contact man on set pieces for Town and averaged 0.95 shots per 90 over the last 12 months. That's a great number for a defender and tells us something about how aggressive Ipswich are in targeting him. He is Evens for at least one shot and 18/1 to score with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Dara O'Shea +1 shots (Evens with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Arsenal, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Christos Tzolis looks like fun.
The new signing from Club Brugge hit the ground running, producing a direct, fearless performance on his Premier League debut in the win over Coventry. He was constantly looking to attack his man, drive into dangerous areas and get shots away.
He finished with four shots and eight touches in the opposition box - more than any Arsenal player on both counts.
And at 15/8 with Sky Bet to score in a game Arsenal are taken to win, he rates as a player to consider.
Also, Matty Cash is 11/4 to be booked with Sky Bet. That's a great bet. Why? Because he looks likely to have the job of dealing with Tzolis.
And that could be an uncomfortable mission for a player who was carded 12 times last season.
The Greek winger brings an excellent card-drawing record from his time at Club Brugge, drawing a card every 206 minutes. That's a very healthy strike-rate.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Jones Knows' best bets...
- 1pt on Marc Guehi to be fouled +2 times (5/4 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on under 2.5 goals in Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest (5/4 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on over 2.5 goals & both teams to score in Chelsea vs Brighton (4/5 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Dara O'Shea +1 shot (Evens with Sky Bet)
