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Analysis

Premier League predictions & Jones Knows' best bets: Liverpool vs Manchester City, Manchester United vs Tottenham and more

Our football betting expert Lewis Jones provides his analysis as the Premier League returns; Watch Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest, Hull vs Everton, Liverpool vs Manchester City & Coventry vs Newcastle live on Sky Sports

Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight across the Premier League weekend.

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

Oliver Glasner faces Crystal Palace for the first time since leaving at the end of last season and this fixture is becoming a little bit more Vindaloo than Korma on the spice chart based on recent meetings.

Not only have Forest pinched Palace's greatest ever manager, this is a growing rivalry following Forest replacing Palace in the Europa League due to multi-club ownership rules.

Although goals have been in short supply in recent meetings - all four have gone under 2.5 goals - the cards have been flowing with an average of seven cards shown per game and all five going over the 4.5 cards line. The market is sleeping on this added edge between the clubs and are offering Evens for the over 3.5 cards line to be hit - a fantastic bet to attack.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Over 3.5 cards (Evens with Sky Bet)

Hull City vs Everton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

Centre-backs are averaging being fouled once a game against Hull due to Oli McBurnie's all-action style and the direct play being implemented. Hull's 21 per cent long-pass rate is the highest in the league and they rank lowest for possession and build-up attacks. Also, McBurnie has competed in the most aerial duels of any Premier League player this season (57). So, this trend of the opposition centre-back being fouled should continue to track at the current averages.

That makes the Evens on offer for Jarrad Branthwaite to be fouled once very juicy. The Everton centre-back has been fouled three times in his last two games and will be engaging in battle with McBurnie on regular occasions.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Jarrad Branthwaite to be fouled (Evens with Sky Bet)

Liverpool vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports

Anfield is going to be exceptionally hostile following the news of Man City being found guilty of serious financial-rule breaches across nine seasons by an independent Premier League Commission - a sanction City have appealed against, so the sporting consequences are not yet settled.

The important point to make from a betting perspective when analysing this game is that there is little evidence so far that the verdict has destabilised the playing group. It's too early to make that assumption.

Pep Guardiola has publicly backed the club and told supporters that they would get through it together. And, significantly, Erling Haaland has now spoken about the situation, calling for positivity.

This Liverpool team are far from the finished article and have been hit hard by injury issues over the international break.

There is a big possibility of siege mentality winning out when it comes to City and that makes them - a team who are top of the Premier League remember - a tantalising prospect at 7/5 with Sky Bet for the away win.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Coventry City vs Newcastle United, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Fixture difficulty and toughness of the schedule is always a key angle to consider when assessing teams at this time of the season. Coventry are the only team to have played the top three in the Premier League, losing 8-0 on aggregate in those matches. There could be mitigating circumstances to their poor start. We'll know more after this fixture.

One area Frank Lampard's team will look to exploit is from set pieces, where Bobby Thomas brings a massive threat to the table. The centre-back has had 10 shots in five games whilst Newcastle have shipped 31 shots conceded from set pieces already this season - the most of any team.

Thomas popped up with three goals for Coventry in their promotion season and will land for anytime goalscorer backers at some point soon. This might be the time to catch him at 8/1 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Jones Knows' best bets...

  • Over 3.5 cards in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest (Evens with Sky Bet)
  • Jarrad Branthwaite to be fouled (Evens with Sky Bet)
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