Analysis
Premier League predictions & Jones Knows' best bets: Liverpool vs Arsenal, Tottenham vs Crystal Palace and much more
Watch Liverpool vs Arsenal and Newcastle vs Everton live on Sky Sports this weekend
Sunday 1 November 2026 09:03, UK
Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight for a busy weekend of Premier League action.
Liverpool vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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Andoni Iraola loves a tactical foul. You can often spot him applauding from the touchline when one of his players takes the decision to halt an opposition attack before it develops into something dangerous. It is a key part of his football philosophy. Stop the transition early.
That mentality has clearly travelled with him to Liverpool. His side are averaging 13.75 fouls per game in the Premier League and I like the look of backing them to keep that average ticking over against Arsenal.
This fixture has all the ingredients for a high foul count. The intensity should be obvious from the first whistle, with both sides capable of hurting each other in transition and Arsenal happy to engage in a duel-heavy game. That's their bread and butter.
There is also a compelling case for a tight contest here. The draw at 9/4 with Sky Bet is the outcome that appeals most in the main markets and a closely fought game could mean plenty of interruptions as neither side gives the other room to breathe. Liverpool making 13 or more fouls at 11/10 with Sky Bet, along with the draw, are two of the standout betting angles.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Newcastle vs Everton, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
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The betting market is yet to be convinced by Newcastle and their price to beat Everton at St James' Park tells its own story.
At 5/4 with Sky Bet, this is the biggest price they have been to win this fixture in their last six home meetings. For context, across the previous two seasons they were priced at 7/10 and even 1/4 to beat the Toffees on home soil.
So what has changed? The underlying numbers are hardly screaming that Newcastle are a team to trust with Eddie Howe gone. Matthias Jaissle has plenty to prove in the Premier League with Newcastle currently recording an expected-goals supremacy of -0.58 per game - the third-worst figure in the division. That is a worrying metric for a side being asked to justify favouritism at home.
Their win over Crystal Palace last weekend did little to silence those doubts. Newcastle lost the expected-goals battle, the shot count and the corner count, making the result look rather fortunate when you dig beneath the surface.
Everton are worth taking seriously at this price. With Newcastle looking vulnerable, I am happy to oppose the hosts and give ourselves the insurance of the draw by backing Everton on the draw no bet market at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Jones Knows' best bets...
- Under 2.5 goals in Chelsea vs Man Utd (11/8 with Sky Bet)
- Hull to beat Ipswich (8/5 with Sky Bet)
- Calvin Bassey +3 foul involvements (Evens with Sky Bet)
- Tottenham -1 handicap (11/8 with Sky Bet)
