Tuesday 15 September 2015 13:21, UK
Theo Walcott's goal against Stoke City was his 11th in his last 11 Premier League starts, but a deeper look at the stats raises questions about his finishing ability, writes Nick Wright...
Theo Walcott must wish highlight reels from Arsenal's 2-0 win over Stoke were limited to the goals. His strike was beautifully executed, but the touch, strength and composure he showed to cushion Mesut Ozil's long pass, hold off Marc Muniesa and score through Jack Butland's legs only told part of the story.
Walcott's goal was sandwiched by a string of gilt-edged misses. Barely two minutes had passed when he sliced horribly wide from six yards out after Alexis Sanchez's header had struck the post, and five minutes later he sent a free header over the bar from Hector Bellerin's perfect cross.
Groans gave way to cheers around the Emirates Stadium with his superbly-taken opening goal, but easier chances went begging after the break.
Walcott shot tamely at Butland from close range following another Bellerin delivery, and his last action of note was to spurn a one-on-one with the Stoke goalkeeper before he was replaced by Giroud. It was the second consecutive game that Walcott has been picked over the Frenchman, but Arsene Wenger is little closer to knowing his first-choice striker.
Giroud was also guilty of missing two simple chances before he headed home the Gunners' second. So while Walcott is not the only Arsenal player lacking efficiency in front of goal, he was the chief culprit against Stoke and he has now missed more clear-cut chances (six) than any other player in the Premier League this season.
Opta defines those chances as "situations where a player should reasonably be expected to score", and Walcott's one-on-ones and close-range attempts against Stoke are prime examples.
Amazingly, the second and third spots are also taken up by Arsenal players, with Giroud having missed five and Sanchez four. Between them, that trio have missed five more clear-cut scoring opportunities than any other team in the Premier League.
They certainly can't complain about the service. Arsenal have created 89 chances in total this season, 12 more than league leaders Manchester City, who have scored 11 goals to Arsenal's five.
Santi Cazorla has created more scoring opportunities than any other player with 23, and Mesut Ozil tops the charts for 2015 with 76 created since the turn of the year.
The number of chances Arsenal are creating is, of course, a cause for optimism, but Wenger knows stronger teams than Stoke will punish such profligacy. The Gunners boss described goalscoring as "cyclic" and "up and down" in the aftermath of Saturday's game, but in Walcott's case the wastefulness appears to be a consistent theme.
Walcott's 11 goals in his last 11 Premier League starts is an impressive return, but the stats show he missed eight clear-cut chances last season despite spending much of the campaign on the sidelines. Ten players missed more than him, but Walcott only played 441 minutes in total.
Therefore, Walcott missed clear-cut chances at an average of one every 55.1 minutes, which was almost twice as frequently as anyone else in the Premier League. It took Glenn Murray, who ranks second, 866 minutes to miss the same number of chances for Crystal Palace, and so far this season Walcott has missed a clear-cut chance every 32.3 minutes on average.
Those numbers do not make pretty reading for Walcott, but positive conclusions can also be drawn from them. After all, he is getting himself into excellent positions. His pace and movement make him a nightmare to defend against, and his clever runs are a perfect target for eagle-eyed passers like Cazorla and Ozil.
Indeed, Walcott's last miss against Stoke came after a typically intelligent run across the box. His movement put him one-on-one with Butland. Only his finish let him down. Sky Sports pundit and former Arsenal striker Charlie Nicholas insists Walcott is worth his place in the team despite the misses.
"It wouldn't bother me if he missed two or three chances because it is what Arsenal do," he told Sky Sports. "I don't have a problem with strikers who miss chances but score one in four, sometimes even less than that.
"Theo's movement and speed is a better option than Olivier Giroud with the way Arsenal play just now. You saw at the weekend. The first thing Ozil does is spot the run. He knows Theo's got pace and he has five yards of space to drop it into. Theo then has a lovely touch and a lovely finish. That's how Theo works and that's how Ozil works.
He might not play great every week but he will score important goals.
"Theo will never be great in the air and he missed a golden header at the weekend, but that's just what Theo does. He might not play great every week but he will score important goals. People may get impatient with him, but that's just the fabric of the team."
Wenger, meanwhile, thinks it is only a matter of time before Walcott becomes more efficient in front of goal. "You become an instinctive finisher once you have a bag of goals behind you," he said. "Theo needs a few more goals to do that a little bit more spontaneously."
He may well prove to be right, but Arsenal are unlikely to be afforded so many chances in their next three Premier League games against Chelsea, high-flying Leicester and Manchester United. Walcott and Arsenal need to find a ruthless streak sooner rather than later.
