Premier League predictions: Steve Bruce to stem tide with shock away win at Arsenal?

Our betting expert Jones Knows makes his Premier League predictions

Premier League predictions - Gameweek 6
Image: Premier League predictions: Jones Knows is back with his betting insights

Our betting expert Jones Knows bagged three correct results on Sunday, including a draw at Anfield.

How did Jones Knows do?

Arsenal vs Newcastle

We are in a strange position with Newcastle where some fans must be wanting this current winless streak to continue in order to trigger a change of management. As long as Newcastle stay up, then is there really much wrong with that in terms of long-term prospects for the club? It's a debate for another day when we are all back in the pubs.

The tide is certainly starting to turn on Steve Bruce, which means one thing. Newcastle will start picking up results.

The wily old fox of a boss is a master at pulling a result out of somewhere to turn the tide back in his favour. Since taking the job he has never gone longer than a run of six games without a win - this game will be the seventh in that winless streak. At 7/1 for an away win, I'm happy to put faith in the Toon.

Arsenal were back to their ponderous selves on Monday. Playing Newcastle basically mirrors playing Crystal Palace and with Mikel Arteta unlikely to change their style, it could be another frustrating evening in terms of chance creation.

The Gunners have won only one of their last seven Premier League games at The Emirates, taking just five points from the last 21 available. It was just over a week ago that Newcastle were holding Arteta's team to a 0-0 in the FA Cup after 90 minutes where Andy Carroll, yes, Andy Carroll, provided the Toon with a big attacking weapon. I would like to see him play in a front two with Callum Wilson, who remains one of the clear positives when it comes to Bruce's side.

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At the prices, it's an away win for me.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 0-1

RESULT: 3-0

Sheffield United vs Tottenham

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Despite having no affinity whatsoever for Sheffield United, even I afforded a fist-pump in their direction after their 1-0 win over Newcastle. It would be a footballing catastrophe if they break Derby's record for the fewest points in a season (11) - we must fight against that. Interestingly, Derby's only win that season was 1-0 at home to Newcastle. Spooky.

It was a victory for long-term performance data that showcased that the Blades remain a well-equipped side on their day and also a victory for being a good bloke in the case of Chris Wilder.

I'm certain they will provide a stern test for Tottenham, too. However, it's difficult to see Wilder's team creating enough big chances to test what is usually a watertight Spurs defence, who have conceded just 16 goals - only Man City (13) have conceded fewer.

The Blades have lost 11 games by one goal while Spurs have beaten both Burnley and West Brom by a solitary goal on the road this season. That will do again for Jose Mourinho, who will back his defence to keep out one of the most toothless attacks in Premier League history. It would be Spurs' first win at Bramall Lane since 1975 - a run of seven games without a win there.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 0-1

RESULT: 1-3

Liverpool vs Manchester United

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Big match alert.

In situations like this, trying to not get carried away with the pre-match hullabaloo when it comes to finding intelligent betting angles is key. This one has the hallmarks of being a cagey affair.

Liverpool have the best Premier League home record this season - and are unbeaten in their last 67 league matches at Anfield - while Man Utd have the best away record in the division. So, what happens when an immovable object meets a force of nature? Stalemate, that's what.

Surely "don't lose" will be the message rather than going all out to win it for both teams, especially in the Manchester United dressing room. A draw will be a huge result for them. If the game gets to 60-65 minutes and is all square, we could see a repeat of what happened in Man City vs Liverpool, where both were happy with a point. I will be backing the draw.

There is value to be had elsewhere though. One area of football betting I have found to be quite profitable in recent years is the cards markets. The stats will tell you that Scott McTominay has yet to be booked this season but he's made 22 fouls, averaging over 2.2 fouls per 90 minutes. Unsurprisingly, he has made the most fouls without being booked of any current Premier League player this season. If you stretch it back to last season he has now on a run of 31 fouls without a card since being booked after 24 seconds on Boxing Day in 2019 vs Newcastle - which is the quickest booking since Opta started collating data in 2006.

Scott McTominay is 12/1 for the first booking
Image: Scott McTominay is 12/1 for the first booking

No doubt he will be tasked with breaking up Liverpool's play in midfield this weekend in what is likely to be a niggly encounter. Liverpool always pack plenty of physicality and punch in their midfield and 12 opposition central midfielders have been booked vs Liverpool in their last 14 Premier League games. At 12/1 McTominay is worth an interest to get carded first, or those that can handle backing short prices in this market should look at the 23/10 for him to be carded anytime.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 1-1

CORRECT SCORE: 0-0

Manchester City vs Crystal Palace

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While the world and his wife get giddy over Liverpool and Manchester United playing out a "title decider", Manchester City and Pep Guardiola are quietly going about their business. They are out of their early-season struggles and are 4/6 with Sky Bet to win their third title in four seasons.

Stylistically, it's more bruising than beautiful this time around at City but it's taken them to eight games unbeaten in the Premier League, winning six of those. Conceding just three goals in their last 14 games in all competitions is quite frankly a ridiculous record.

Palace are unbeaten in their last two visits to the Etihad Stadium though, scoring five times in those matches. Roy Hodgson's sit and counter approach could work again - but they simply must get the first goal. I just cannot see it.

A City win to nil looks the smart play at 4/5 rather than taking the 1/7 for a home win. You could also throw in Kevin De Bruyne to score first at 4/1.

With no central striker being preferred at the moment by Guardiola, De Bruyne is being asked to drive into the box at every opportunity and he has registered 10 shots in his two Premier League games playing that role, scoring at Chelsea and missing two big chances in the win over Brighton. I'm assuming he will also regain penalty duties after Raheem Sterling's miss on Wednesday, too. He looks good for a goal.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0

CORRECT SCORE: 4-0

Wolves vs West Brom

Can Wolves be trusted to win at 8/15 with Sky Bet?

It's all gone a bit stale for Nuno Espirito Santo since Raul Jimenez suffered that horrific skull injury. I got my fingers truly burnt by them on Tuesday against Everton; they played without much attacking purpose as the Toffees were defensively in control throughout. Wolves have lost five of their last eight Premier League games and not managed a clean sheet in 11 matches.

There must be improvement to come from West Brom, too.

It's hard to get a true handle on them as Sam Allardyce is still working out his best formula in terms of team selection. If he finds it for this fixture then that 8/15 for a home win looks very skinny but there are so many unknowns with West Brom it's hard to seriously put faith in a team that are averaging four shots a game under Allardyce - a league low.

Better value is found in the goalscorer markets. I backed Leander Dendoncker to score against Everton as he continues to play in an advanced role and is hugely overlooked by the bookmakers. He had four shots in that match but his finishing was wayward.

In the absence of Jimenez he provides the physicality in the box that Wolves require. With them likely to see plenty of the ball in wide areas in this one, the chances of him finishing off one of these chances remains high. Seven of his shots this season have come via headers, two of those against Everton, so the 25/1 for him to score a header with Sky Bet is a bet to jump on.

He can score in a narrow home win.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 1-0

RESULT: 2-3

Leeds vs Brighton

Shots anyone?

This game has all the ingredients to explode into a typically mad Leeds encounter. I have absolutely no strong opinion on which way the game will go but I'm confident there will be shots. So many shots.

Games involving Leeds have produced the most shots combined of any club in the Premier League. In fact, Marcelo Bielsa's team have featured in the top four matches for total shots in a match this season (43 vs Manchester United, 39 vs Aston Villa, 38 vs Everton and 38 vs Tottenham). Also, six of the nine Premier League games with 35 or more shots this season have involved Leeds.

No matter who you are, it is likely you are going to get dragged into a gung-ho encounter full of incident and chances. And Brighton won't be able to resist. Although none of their games have featured over 27 match shots this season, Graham Potter's men rank seventh for most shots in the Premier League (221) whilst only Liverpool have had more shots than Leeds (259). They may not be famed for their ruthlessness in front of goal but Brighton do create chances.

An early goal could send this game into chaos mode and Sky Bet's line of the game to produce 28 or more shots at 10/11 looks a steal. Those who like fishing at bigger prices should also take note of the 6/1 for there to be 35 or more shots.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 2-2

RESULT: 0-1

West Ham vs Burnley

It's hard to foresee anything but a drab, bitty and ultimately low-scoring encounter. Both teams are expertly organised in defence yet are not offering much going forward.

That has not stopped West Ham picking up points over the festive period with gritty draws against Southampton and Brighton and an even grittier win at Everton. I am not sure their current run is sustainable though with the performance against Stockport in the FA Cup sending out warning lights that things might be about to turn for David Moyes. They created an xG of just 0.85 in that one with the only goal coming via a set-piece to get them out of an embarrassing situation having played a full-strength team.

Meanwhile, Burnley are now back to their best, yet the markets do not seem to agree. Even in this one they are being priced up like a relegation-threatened side when really Sean Dyche's men are mid-table material. An away win at just under 4/1 is worth a look. It is also relevant that Burnley have won each of last three meetings, without conceding.

Goals remain a problem for Dyche though, scoring just nine goals all season and they have scored more than once in just one of their last 15 Premier League games. But there has been shoots of light in that regard when assessing their expected goals data which has them registering a season total of 15.9 goals scored pointing to a slight underperformance in front of goal for the quality of chances they create. I am happy to back them here.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 0-1 (9/1 with Sky Bet)

RESULT: 1-0

Fulham vs Chelsea

Call me a hipster if you dare, but I was raving about Fulham before all the cool kids jumped on the bandwagon after their 1-1 draw with Tottenham. But like with many mainstream opinions, Scott Parker's team are in danger of becoming slightly overhyped now. Yes, they were fluid and knocked the ball around nicely at Spurs but all the big chances were created by Jose Mourinho's team, racking up an xG figure of 2.58 to Fulham's 1.08.

Now, 6/1 on a home win here is a tempter as Chelsea's record away from Stamford Bridge under Frank Lampard remains woeful for a top-four challenger and taking on Chelsea has proven a profitable angle. However, it's really difficult to see how Fulham, who have only won two of their last 16 Premier League games, will stop Lampard's side down the flanks; an area where Tottenham absolutely battered them on Wednesday night.

Ben Chilwell, Reece James, a rejuvenated Callum Hudson-Odoi and Christian Pulisic are dynamite on the overload and possess the quality to seriously hurt Fulham. Whoever plays centre-forward for Chelsea should get chances to feast on.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-2 (6/1 with Sky Bet)

RESULT: 0-1

Leicester vs Southampton

Why are Southampton such a big price here? It's 7/2 for the away win. Am I missing something?

Leicester notoriously struggle when asked to dictate games at home, losing to Fulham, Aston Villa, West Ham and Everton already this season. Brendan Rodgers' men have won 12 more points away than at the King Power this season whilst Saints have lost just two of their last 15 matches and just one of their last 13 away games.

I cannot have a Leicester win here.

Yes, Danny Ings is out with Covid-19 but Sir Ralph has managed just fine without him in five games this season, losing just one of those. Hasenhuttl is a manager that does not rely on individuals, his emphasis is on team cohesion with everyone knowing their roles. Ings is the cherry on the top but the tasty ingredients that knit the Saints side together remain intact.

The reason for the market drift on Saints could be to do with their attacking output performance numbers over the festive period. Since beating Sheffield United on December 13, Saints have only scored twice with a combined xG figure of 3.2 - the second lowest in the division for that period. However, they have played Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool in that run, so I am happy to let those declining numbers slide for the time being. It's simply got to be an away win.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2 (12/1 with Sky Bet)

RESULT: 2-0

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