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Sunday 10 December 2023 19:13, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows takes aim at the Premier League card, predicting a narrow win for Man City away to Luton on Sunday.
If you take away the points deduction, Everton would be above Chelsea in the Premier League table - and it's no fluke.
Sean Dyche has got his team playing forthright and dangerous football. Chelsea's name and strong attacking metrics remain factored heavily into their outright match prices. The away win trading at 5/4 with Sky Bet here. That looks woefully short.
Everton, if able to reenergise from their impressive 3-0 win over Newcastle, look worth chancing on the draw no bet at 6/5.
Raheem Sterling's direct dribbling and ability to draw fouls and yellow cards off opponents remains a sustainable edge to exploit. Diogo Dalot's booking on Wednesday night for a foul on Sterling, took his tally to 13 bookings drawn off opponents. It's an outrageous figure - six more than any other player. This obviously leaves Everton's full-backs very vulnerable to cards, so depending on where Sterling lines up, the 5/1 with Sky Bet for Vitaliy Mykolenko to pick up a card is certainly a runner.
West Ham are a team that frazzle my brain.
Performances remain mediocre and David Moyes' future looks in doubt beyond this season but they are just three points off Tottenham and Manchester United. They are most certainly overperforming - as seen by the expected points model which has them seven points higher than their underlying metrics. Only Manchester United are overperforming to a greater level. I have no idea how this one will go. Best play the draw then.
Alex Iwobi is being disrespected by the market at being offered up at 14/1 with Sky Bet to open the scoring. Marco Silva is the master at lighting a fire and making his players feel unstoppable and that certainly looks the case with the usually timid Iwobi, who is getting into some great positions in this Fulham set up as shown by his haul of 10 shots and three goals in his last three home appearances. His hot-streak in front of goal may continue.
Luton's corner lines at Kenilworth Road remain soaked with value.
Rob Edwards knows his team must play for set pieces by getting the ball into opposition territory fast to create situations to win corners down the flanks or free-kicks by playing at a high tempo. At home, their corner count has been traditionally very healthy, averaging 7.4 corners per game at Kenilworth Road last season - a tally only bettered by West Brom in the Championship.
The step up to the Premier League hasn't affected their output too much yet as they've won 42 corners across their seven games, working at an average of six per 90 minutes.
Therefore, the 10/11 with Sky Bet on offer for them to win just three or more corners is exceptionally generous.
Manchester City aren't their usual selves - and that can be seen through the amount of corners they are conceding. They have conceded 26 corners in their last four fixtures to an average of 6.5 per game as their usual supreme ability to strangle opposition with possessing football has dipped which in turn has allowed them to be more vulnerable to counters on their goal. I can see them grinding out a no-thrills victory but I'll be more concentrated on the Luton corner count.
Newcastle looked to be running on fumes at Goodison Park and there is little time for a breather for this stretched squad.
Just two wins from their last 13 games away from home in all competitions doesn't exactly inspire much confidence on the 2/1 with Sky Bet for an away win. Plus, Eddie Howe will also have one eye on the clash with AC Milan on Wednesday so may tweak his already tweaked squad to maintain some energy levels for that huge night. That said, it's hard to trust Spurs at 23/20 to turn their likely territorial advantage into goals based on their last two home performances.
Just two goals scored from 110 touches in the opposition box, 32 of those being shots and to a backdrop of an expected goals tally of 4.2 is damming indictment of their attackers. A draw it is.
Pedro Porro has been threatening to find the net this season though and odds of 25/1 with Sky Bet do underplay his goalscoring chances. He's had seven shots in the last two home fixtures, hitting the post with an effort and finding the target with two others. His turn might be close.