Back Fabinho, Fernandinho and Oliver Norwood yellow card treble at 66/1 - Jones Knows
Jones Knows has two bets to attack across the weekend: Burnley to beat West Ham on Monday Night Football, and a 66/1 card treble to have a tickle on
Friday 30 April 2021 22:56, UK
Jones Knows thinks there's money to be made in a sensational 66/1 three-way yellow card treble this weekend.
How did we get on last weekend?
A loss. But fine, fine margins.
After back-to-back winners we were a Scott McTominay shot away from landing the hat-trick at 9/2.
After Newcastle defied their +2 goal handicap vs Liverpool, the double rolled on to McTominay firing two shots at goal in Manchester United's clash with Leeds on Sunday. He flicked a header wide on 33 minutes but couldn't find another way to goal in the remaining 57 minutes of action. Referee Craig Pawson didn't help matters, mind.
He deemed McTominay's challenge on Kalvin Phillips about 25 yards out on 62 minutes a foul. As the whistle sounded, McTominay let fly a wayward effort miles into the stands. I muttered the words "the game is gone" in frustration. Probably a little dramatic in retrospect considering the last two weeks of European Super League talk but players can't even breathe on an opponent without triggering some theatrics.
Frustration levels rose even further having watched Everton and Burnley win away and Manchester City win by one-goal in the Carabao Cup final. All angles were pinpointed confidently in my Premier League prediction column but I swerved including them in this main double. Is there a cure for bad decision-making? Someone hit me up a remedy.
Better news came to light on Tuesday with the news that England are likely to name a 26-man squad for the Euros. Fears that Sky Bet may void the market where we've got James Ward-Prowse to make the squad at 8/1 and him and Conor Coady too in a 7/1 double could have ruined my week. But credit the traders at the bookmaker. They are standing all bets placed on the original market despite, presumably, making an overall loss.
Praise for a bookmaker? I must be going soft.
Remember, whatever I tip up, I'm backing. We're in this together, comrades.
P+L for the season: +2
1pt on Fernandinho, Fabinho and Oliver Norwood all to get carded this weekend (66/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
This isn't my normal style of punting, selecting three relatively niche angles to combine into a big-priced accumulator but all three of these players have superb statistical claims of picking up a card this weekend. So, the 66/1 is worth a tickle.
Fernandinho, whose Man City side play Palace on Saturday lunchtime, has been booked in eight of his last 10 appearances in all competitions, averaging a card every 84 minutes. Palace will be playing on the break and in Wilfried Zaha and Eberechi Eze they have players capable of drawing yellow cards. The pair have got 15 players booked between them this season.
We could be set to see an exciting Manchester United vs Liverpool encounter for the first time in a while and Fabinho is vulnerable to a card when playing as a centre-back. He has been carded in five of his last 10 matches when playing in the Liverpool back four, including picking up one in the reverse fixture between these two. If the game gets stretched, he's going to get into some card-friendly situations up against Marcus Rashford and Mason Greenwood.
And finally, the treble is completed by Oliver Norwood who is up against Tottenham this weekend for Sheffield United. This Spurs side are packed full of players who draw fouls for fun. No team in the Premier League this season have won more fouls leading to a booking this season with 74 opposition players picking up a card. The Blades' tally of 63 yellow cards is the most produced by any Premier League side this season. Paul Heckingbottom hasn't really changed the style too much but he does like to go with a two-man base in midfield of John Fleck and Norwood.
And since he took charge, the tenacious pair have been making nearly two fouls per 90 minutes but have escaped getting booked. I can't see that lasting another week against such an opponent like Spurs. I've plumped for Norwood as he's slightly more cynical than Fleck but don't be surprised if Fleck gets the attention of the referee too. The 10/11 with Sky Bet for either Fleck or Norwood to be booked rates as the best bet of the weekend when it comes to short prices. But it's too short to officially recommend as a single. Do play the 66/1 treble though.
Burnley vs West Ham, Monday 8pm: 1pt on Burnley to win and over 2.5 goals (5/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
Is West Ham's overperformance according to the key metrics starting to catch up with them? I've been banging that drum for most of the season with pretty embarrassing consequences considering the results David Moyes' side have been pulling out of the bag. They deserve massive credit for an extraordinary season.
However, back-to-back defeats have started to bear fruit on my West Ham theory. Their bubble is in danger of bursting when it comes to a top-six finish. By the time West Ham kick-off on Monday Night Football, they could've sunk to seventh place.
And this is the last place you want to go at the moment. Burnley are in bouncing form, culminating in a jaw-dropping 4-0 win at Wolves which was completely and utterly deserved in every department. Plus, Sean Dyche's men are notoriously very hard to beat at Turf Moor, fans or no fans, losing just three of their last 12 fixtures.
It's easy to forget Burnley themselves qualified for Europe two seasons ago. A lot of things fell into place that season, mostly keeping a fit group together with a consistent performance level. Judging by their last five games, they are back at that top-eight performance metrics. In that period, they have beaten Wolves and Everton and are averaging two goals a game whilst posting 13.8 shots per 90 minutes. It's front-foot football being played with a purpose.
They are a massive price to register another victory here. And I'm happy to throw in the chance of the game producing more than two goals. All of Burnley's last five fixtures have gone over the 2.5 line whilst West Ham games have been very high scoring in their last five fixtures, averaging 4.4 goals per game.
Combine a home win and over 2.5 goals at a very juicy 5/1 with Sky Bet.
