Watch Leicester vs Newcastle and Crystal Palace vs Everton all live on Sky Sports
Sunday 12 December 2021 16:30, UK
Our betting guru Jones Knows wants to back a West Ham win, Newcastle to get a result at Leicester and a draw at Selhurst Park.
The Hammers have lost just two of their last 18 games away from home against teams that finished ninth or lower according to last season's table, winning 12 of those 18, including beating Burnley at Turf Moor last season.
That was a dominant showing by David Moyes' men who registered 22 shots on goal, creating an expected goals figure of 2.33 in the 2-1 victory. And they hit those heights despite having Declan Rice missing through injury. Moyes' boys are perfectly equipped to get the job done in these types of games against physically focused teams like Burnley. They can match them, and then punish them with their array of quality in the final third.
Burnley's form has been wretched for a while now and the defeat at Newcastle last weekend rammed home just how much trouble they could be in this season. In their last 17 games, they have won just once.
Keep it simple, back the away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
BETTING ANGLE: West Ham to win (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Leicester remain a team I have no faith in defensively. Brendan Rodgers has got his attacking process moving in the right direction but the whole defensive structure of the team is wobbly to say the least.
They rank near the bottom in all the main defensive categories. Only Newcastle have faced more shots (235) and only Norwich and Watford have faced more shots on target (78). They have not kept a clean sheet in their last 16 matches across all competitions. And, the two goals shipped to Ezri Konsa in the defeat at Villa, means it's now 10 goals conceded from set pieces - the joint-most with Palace.
Teams that move the ball quickly through the phases are finding opportunities easy to come by. Newcastle have shown already under Eddie Howe that the key to their survival will be utilising their difference makers in attack. They have the tools to make this a difficult afternoon for the Foxes, whose preparations won't have been helped by their trip to Napoli in midweek and growing cases of Covid within the camp.
I'm happy to take Leicester on at odds-on but their attack has the ability to slice through a flaky Newcastle defence, too.
That means I have no strong urge to back a positive Newcastle result either. Mind you, I do want to get involved in Newcastle's corner count in this one, with them to win the corner count with a +2 handicap at Evens - meaning we'll get a return if Newcastle win more corners, have the same amount of corners or have one less corner than the hosts.
Since Howe arrived, the Toon's more adventurous approach can be seen through the amount of corners being won. Against Brentford they won eight and they won 10 in the win over Burnley. Facing a defensively shot team like Leicester should yield the same type of numbers and that will be enough to bag the Evens shot.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
BETTING ANGLE: Newcastle +2 corner handicap (Evens with Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace have lost their last three Premier League games, all coinciding with the absence of central defender Joachim Andersen, whose ability to push up the pitch makes it easier for Palace to control games. They haven't had much luck putting away lower-ranked teams this season either, failing to win in five games against teams in the bottom half. When you factor in those two variables, I'd be against them in this one at 5/4 with Sky Bet.
Everton are also unbeaten in the last 13 Premier League meetings between the teams and put in a proper performance for their manager in the win over Arsenal. They'll be just fine when Dominic Calvert-Lewin returns.
One angle to focus on is the game sparking to life in the second half. Both these teams are notorious slow-starters with a patient, no-thrills approach in the opening knockings of a match. Of the 38 goals scored by these two clubs this season, 73 per cent of those have come in the second half. That makes the 11/10 with Sky Bet on the second half being the highest scoring half very appealing. It's a bet that would have copped in seven of Palace's last nine fixtures.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
BETTING ANGLE: Second half to have most goals (11/10 with Sky Bet)
