Our tipster's season profit now stands at +47; Match highlights of every Premier League game this season to be shown on the Sky Sports website and app; Anybody in the UK can watch highlights for free on the Sky Sports app or the Score Centre app on your iPhone or Android
Wednesday 9 February 2022 22:25, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows has his eyes on backing an 8/1 shot on Wednesday night when Aston Villa host Leeds United.
Two weeks has passed since the last round of tips. And it was an easily forgettable round of games. Two points were frittered away over that weekend following Tottenham to win by one goal at Chelsea - the writing was on the wall for that selection when Antonio Conte decided to play four full-backs - and Leeds went and became just the second team to fail to score against Newcastle this season.
There are Premier League punting opportunities aplenty this midweek with a full fixture list to attack over the three days. I've got three main plays to attack...
P+L = +47
The home crowd at Villa Park will only encourage their side to adopt such an attack-minded approach in this one - as seen in the reverse fixture last season that ended up with 39 shots being fired at goal across both teams - the third-highest seen in any game last season. I'm happy to back for the game to go a similar path this season too with the 31 or more match shots line worth an interest.
With fireworks predicted, cards have to be on the agenda too. Leeds' games have averaged the most cards of any team in the Premier League this season (4.8) with Villa's not too far behind them on 4.4. Jarred Gillett is a relatively inexperienced referee on these shores and has been very card-happy on what we've seen so far, brandishing seven yellows in Watford vs Newcastle and five in Brentford vs Norwich.
Take advantage of Sky Bet's double of 31 or more match shots and the game to produce 50 or more booking points at 8/1.
No team have seen both teams score in their fixtures than West Ham this season (15 of 23 games) and despite lacking in many areas, Watford's attack is full of pace and trickery as shown by their 12 goals scored away from home this season - more than any of their relegation rivals.
West Ham are also facing a lot of shots on their goal over the past month.
The Hammers do defend deeper than most top-ranked teams, so opposition teams do find territory easy to come by.
David Moyes' men have faced a whopping 15.4 shots per 90 minutes in their last nine Premier League fixtures. Even Kidderminster - of the National League North - managed to register 13 shots, 10 of those in normal time, against the hapless Hammers at the weekend in the FA Cup.
Watford have managed 11 or more shots in eight of their last 10 Premier League fixtures, recording 14 against West Ham in the previous fixture. I can see similar lines being posted in this one. So, the recommendation is to combine both teams to score and Watford to post 13 more shots at West Ham's goal.
Under 2.5 goals, under 2.5 goals, under 2.5 goals - that was my continued reaction when assessing most of the Premier League games this midweek. It's not exactly music to the ears of lovers for the beautiful game but we're here to make a profit. I can handle backing bore-fests if the odds are in our favour. Backing multiple games to go under a certain goal line isn't a strategy I'm that comfortable with as one game can blow you out.
However, taking the overall number of goals in the games I'm keen to oppose, goals in is a method of approach I'm happy to back. Sky Bet have offered 100/30 on the six aforementioned games going under a total of 13.5 which means we'd be looking at an average of around two goals per game for this to land. That looks fair enough to be and should be backed in a bet that should keep us interested until the final game on Thursday between Wolves and Arsenal.
